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Forums - Sales Discussion - Before The Switch Launched, What was your sales prediction for the Switch?

 

Sales Prediction BEFORE Switch Launched:

<13Million 0 0%
 
13-25M 3 3.95%
 
25-40M 7 9.21%
 
40-60M 14 18.42%
 
60-80M 22 28.95%
 
80-100M 15 19.74%
 
100M+ 15 19.74%
 
Total:76
Louie said:

So, I went over some of my old posts and couldn't find a concrete 150m prediction before launch. However, in this thread from May 2017 I argued the Switch would sell very well to women once the right software hit the market and said the Switch would sell more than the Wii. In February I said people who doubted the Switch would sell more than 20m units lived in fantasy land. And in February 2017 I said it was "entirely possible" for the Switch to outsell the Wii if Nintendo played their cards right. In general, right from the start I argued Nintendo should focus on the mass market, needed women to buy the system and had the potential to beat the Wii. So I feel pretty good about this  I also said 1-2-Switch and Labo didn't look like mass market smash hits to me, which I also feel pretty good about

I looked at that "Kimishima expects Switch sales to reach Wii levels" thread to see if I had posted in it and I am proud of my findings:

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8290247

RolStoppable said:
spemanig said:

Zorg addressed the first part as well as I ever could. As for the second, I never understood pretending that you have low expectations for something. The writing is on the wall for a successful platform. Why would I pretend to expect worse only to pretend to be surprised when it succeeds?

Now we don't really know how successful it will be, but we already definitively know things about the system. We know it's being marketed better than the Wii U. We know that no one is confused about what it is. We know that impressions are that it's a sleek and modern piece of tech, unlike Wii U. We know that it's slated to have a better lineup of exclusives in its first 9 months than both the Wii U and 3DS combined. We know that it's launching with one of the most anticipated games of the past 4 years, and the absolute best killer app since Wii Sports and TP on the Wii with Breath of the Wild. We know that its reveal teaser has a Youtube viewership remeniscent of the PS4's when it was revealed. We know that pre-orders are great. We know it's doing amazing in searches. We know that its support from Japanese publishers is exceptional. We know now that the Super Bowl Ad was well recieved.

We know enough about the Switch, even before making more obvious assumptions, to make an educated guess about how it's going to do well. People complained all throughout the Wii U that "if only Wii U did X, Y, and Z it would have been a hit." Switch is doing X, Y, Z and A, B, C, but I'm supposed to pretend its success, to some degree, isn't immenent because "it's healthier?" I'll take my chances.

Well said, spemanig.

We do know a lot of things about the Switch. This is the time to be confident in the system. The few VGC members who recognize the Switch's potential and provide sound reasoning for its imminent success will join an elite club that will be hailed as prophets for years to come.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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Farsala said:
Jranation said:

The whole 3DS + Wii U comparisons is just doesnt make sense to me. Like I have 2 3DS and 1 Wii U = 3. While I have 1 Switch = 1. 

Yeah but there can be an equal amount of people that bought 1 3DS for a whole family or 1 Wii U to succeed their Wii and instead got 2 switches for whatever reason. Personal anecdotes don't really mean much to me. All consoles have multiple ownership.

The 3DS+ Wii U comparison is simply because Nintendo decided the Switch was a hybrid.

You missed his point he has a 3DS and a WiiU which a significant number of people would also do, that's 2 units while that same consumer this time round would only get 1 Switch so if even half the WiiU owners had a 3DS that would mean 7m consumers who would only buy one unit of hardware this time round instead of the same group of consumers generating 14m last time.



RolStoppable said:

I looked at that "Kimishima expects Switch sales to reach Wii levels" thread to see if I had posted in it and I am proud of my findings:

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8290247

RolStoppable said:

Well said, spemanig.

We do know a lot of things about the Switch. This is the time to be confident in the system. The few VGC members who recognize the Switch's potential and provide sound reasoning for its imminent success will join an elite club that will be hailed as prophets for years to come.

That's a nice find, indeed! The crazy thing is I remember both of us arguing almost the same things back in 2007 when the Wii had just launched. 



RolStoppable said:

I looked at that "Kimishima expects Switch sales to reach Wii levels" thread to see if I had posted in it and I am proud of my findings:

You actually predicted more than 100M in my thread (in January 2017), something that holds up pretty well today:

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8247626



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Mnementh said:
RolStoppable said:

I looked at that "Kimishima expects Switch sales to reach Wii levels" thread to see if I had posted in it and I am proud of my findings:

You actually predicted more than 100M in my thread (in January 2017), something that holds up pretty well today:

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8247626

Of course I remember that, because my Open Your Eyes thread was first and foremost an offspring of your prediction thread while the other threads floating around during the same week provided material to flesh it out.

But the post you linked is ultimately nothing special because all it has are numbers. An actual prediction goes into a lot more detail, so those are the kind of posts that really matter. Earlier today I responded to my own old post in Goremichel's thread, because that's just about the only post where I gave a breakdown for 100m+ sales. On other occasions I usually only explained why 100m+ lifetime without giving a sales progression by year.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9161289

That has a lot more value, because if a post has nothing but numbers, it's easy to brush it off as a mere guess. If you write down an essay and people read it years later and consider your reasoning correct by a value of 75% or more, then that's a good result because there a lot of factors that go into a proper hardware sales prediction.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Around the Network
Wyrdness said:
Farsala said:

Yeah but there can be an equal amount of people that bought 1 3DS for a whole family or 1 Wii U to succeed their Wii and instead got 2 switches for whatever reason. Personal anecdotes don't really mean much to me. All consoles have multiple ownership.

The 3DS+ Wii U comparison is simply because Nintendo decided the Switch was a hybrid.

You missed his point he has a 3DS and a WiiU which a significant number of people would also do, that's 2 units while that same consumer this time round would only get 1 Switch so if even half the WiiU owners had a 3DS that would mean 7m consumers who would only buy one unit of hardware this time round instead of the same group of consumers generating 14m last time.

Again I don't really care about the personal anecdotes. Sure there are people out there with 2 3DS and a Wii U and only 1 Switch. There are also people out there with 5 3DS, 2 Wii Us and 1 Switch. But the reverse is true too. My friend has 2 Switch 0 3DS and a Wii U.

It doesn't really matter to me, because it could never be measured.

The 3DS+ Wii U= Switch comparison, does not literally mean that I expect each consumer of 3DS and Wii U to buy a Switch. A Switch owner is a Switch owner, and that is that.

It is just an arbitrary number that I expected the Switch to beat, and that is all.



Mnementh said:

I made a poll asking for the sales back in january 2017. More than half of voters expected less than 50%. Less than 10% of voters choose '>100M'.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=224679

I myself was expecting 50M.

Wow. I can't believe I chose 10-20 million lifetime in the poll. I don't remember why I chose that one. Maybe I was basing it on Wii U sales? Or I chose that hoping to be wrong about the prediction? Either way, I'm glad the Switch doing great!



Reading through some of those old threads again made me realize that part of VGC's overall decline in forum activity has to be tied to Switch doing well. There were more than a few very active posters that were highly dismissive of everything Switch, so they likely made a leave because of how wrong they were. It's also not farfetched to suggest that we had people who first and foremost enjoyed it to bash Nintendo, so this site ceased to be fun for them because of Switch's success.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Around 60 to 80 million, similar to the 3DS.

On one hand, I was confident that a platform like the Switch would attract some of the best support from Nintendo's previous systems. Enough DS and 3DS XL's had been sold to convince me that an oversized handheld was not a major issue, and I was confident that Nintendo's mainstay series on consoles would sell in line with previous entries. My thoughts were "New 3D Mario and Smash are going to sell 10 million, Zelda will sell 7+ million, Pokemon will sell 15 to 20 million. So somewhere around 3DS levels sounds reasonable."

That said, I really didn't expect the degree to which games like Super Smash Bros Ultimate and Breath of the Wild would be much more successful on the Switch than on previous consoles. I predicted that Pokemon, Nintendo's handheld fuel, would take longer to develop new games on Switch, which ended up not being true. I also underestimated the degree to which third party developers, both indie and major, would be willing to port games to the Switch, even if these games are often practically ancient.



Love and tolerate.

Pyro as Bill said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah no offense but I feel like the majority of posts and votes here are made with hindsight, rather than how people honestly felt at the time.

Back in 2016/pre-launch 2017, the majority of forum-going gamers thought it would fail and the few who dared to suggest it would pull the kind of numbers in the most popular poll answers here were seen as delusional.

Just look at the prediction threads we had here, (does anyone have a link?) most people voted under 40 million if I recall correctly.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/221574/early-nintendo-switch-sales-predictions/1/

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/227213/nintendo-switch-selling-life-time-poll/1/

and for an idea of what some people thought the direction Nintendo should go instead.....

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/224602/can-we-agree-nintendo-should-go-third-party-now/1/

Thanks for this. Seems like I said 60mil. Despite showing my Nintendo bias in this site I thought I would say more lol. 



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