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Forums - Sales Discussion - Before The Switch Launched, What was your sales prediction for the Switch?

 

Sales Prediction BEFORE Switch Launched:

<13Million 0 0%
 
13-25M 3 3.95%
 
25-40M 7 9.21%
 
40-60M 14 18.42%
 
60-80M 22 28.95%
 
80-100M 15 19.74%
 
100M+ 15 19.74%
 
Total:76

Around 60 to 80 million, similar to the 3DS.

On one hand, I was confident that a platform like the Switch would attract some of the best support from Nintendo's previous systems. Enough DS and 3DS XL's had been sold to convince me that an oversized handheld was not a major issue, and I was confident that Nintendo's mainstay series on consoles would sell in line with previous entries. My thoughts were "New 3D Mario and Smash are going to sell 10 million, Zelda will sell 7+ million, Pokemon will sell 15 to 20 million. So somewhere around 3DS levels sounds reasonable."

That said, I really didn't expect the degree to which games like Super Smash Bros Ultimate and Breath of the Wild would be much more successful on the Switch than on previous consoles. I predicted that Pokemon, Nintendo's handheld fuel, would take longer to develop new games on Switch, which ended up not being true. I also underestimated the degree to which third party developers, both indie and major, would be willing to port games to the Switch, even if these games are often practically ancient.



Love and tolerate.

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Pyro as Bill said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah no offense but I feel like the majority of posts and votes here are made with hindsight, rather than how people honestly felt at the time.

Back in 2016/pre-launch 2017, the majority of forum-going gamers thought it would fail and the few who dared to suggest it would pull the kind of numbers in the most popular poll answers here were seen as delusional.

Just look at the prediction threads we had here, (does anyone have a link?) most people voted under 40 million if I recall correctly.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/221574/early-nintendo-switch-sales-predictions/1/

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/227213/nintendo-switch-selling-life-time-poll/1/

and for an idea of what some people thought the direction Nintendo should go instead.....

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/224602/can-we-agree-nintendo-should-go-third-party-now/1/

Thanks for this. Seems like I said 60mil. Despite showing my Nintendo bias in this site I thought I would say more lol. 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

Farsala said:
Wyrdness said:

You missed his point he has a 3DS and a WiiU which a significant number of people would also do, that's 2 units while that same consumer this time round would only get 1 Switch so if even half the WiiU owners had a 3DS that would mean 7m consumers who would only buy one unit of hardware this time round instead of the same group of consumers generating 14m last time.

Again I don't really care about the personal anecdotes. Sure there are people out there with 2 3DS and a Wii U and only 1 Switch. There are also people out there with 5 3DS, 2 Wii Us and 1 Switch. But the reverse is true too. My friend has 2 Switch 0 3DS and a Wii U.

It doesn't really matter to me, because it could never be measured.

The 3DS+ Wii U= Switch comparison, does not literally mean that I expect each consumer of 3DS and Wii U to buy a Switch. A Switch owner is a Switch owner, and that is that.

It is just an arbitrary number that I expected the Switch to beat, and that is all.

Yeah thats fine. It does have a high chance of achieving it now. I just remembered plenty of people brought this up during the Switch 1st year in numerous threads. 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

RolStoppable said:
Ljink96 said:

When I saw the October reveal trailer, I knew the Switch would be around for a long time and would be a massive success. It was the natural evolution of Nintendo's Handhelds and Home Consoles in one, so yeah I thought this would be a 100M seller at least. They get to have all their teams on one device and that really helps with software output and I still don't think we've seen the full extent of this just yet.

An actual post of yours from March 2017 had you predict 50-60m lifetime.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8359338

While this may look like I am specifically picking on you, you merely happen to be a concrete example of a guy who posted in this thread and has a memory that differs from reality (multiple old threads got bumped today and your old post happened to be in a stack of quotes on the final page of the thread I lifted your post from). The topic that people may be misremembering their own predictions has been brought up in this thread here and I am sure you aren't the only one. Hence why the poll in this thread doesn't seem representative of reality at all.

Your 50-60m prediction looks bad in hindsight, but at the time you made it, you were still on the optimistic side of the spectrum, so there were a ton of people who made worse predictions.

lol, yikes. While this is true, I could also bring up my comment on Youtube where I knew this thing would be a huge success. I was trying to be edgy on the forums. In my defense, this comment was made based off of the software that year and their potential as evergreen titles. So while to you this may seem like a memory issue, it was more of an incomplete thought.

And picking on me? Bruh, it's videogames. Say whatever you want to say. At the end of the day, it's a videogame prediction...chill.

Edit: My comment is in there somewhere but I think you'll find it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5uik5fgIaI

Last edited by Ljink96 - on 08 June 2020

kirby007 said:

Noone dared yet?

well here it goes, Kirby007's scenario#1 :  WW LTD 8th generation!

 

 

Gen Prediction Time

 

-

Xbox One

Playstation 4

Nintendo

2012

0

0

2.200.000

2013

2.100.000

3.500.000

3.000.000

2014

7.900.000

13.000.000

6.000.000

2015

14.000.000

13.500.000

5.500.000

2016

13.500.000

13.000.000

5.000.000

2017

12.500.000

13.500.000

14.000.000

2018

11.000.000

12.500.000

18.000.000

2019

11.500.000

12.000.000

19.000.000

2020

9.000.000

10.000.000

19.500.000

TOTALS

81.500.000

91.000.000

92.200.000

 

 

Note one:

I expect that Nintendo will follow up the wii u with a different console end 2016 ( wii 2 a.k.a. nintendo tab )

Note two:

Sony currently looks like to be #1 during the 8th gen

Note three:

Microsoft will once again build a solid userbase, but will lose the "war" with around 9 million unit difference

 

Now, show me your visions!!!

Found it! November 2013 LMAO



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

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I don't recall. Probably something low considering the failure that was the Wii U.



kirby007 said:
kirby007 said:

Noone dared yet?

well here it goes, Kirby007's scenario#1 :  WW LTD 8th generation!

 

 

Gen Prediction Time

 

-

Xbox One

Playstation 4

Nintendo

2012

0

0

2.200.000

2013

2.100.000

3.500.000

3.000.000

2014

7.900.000

13.000.000

6.000.000

2015

14.000.000

13.500.000

5.500.000

2016

13.500.000

13.000.000

5.000.000

2017

12.500.000

13.500.000

14.000.000

2018

11.000.000

12.500.000

18.000.000

2019

11.500.000

12.000.000

19.000.000

2020

9.000.000

10.000.000

19.500.000

TOTALS

81.500.000

91.000.000

92.200.000

 

 

Note one:

I expect that Nintendo will follow up the wii u with a different console end 2016 ( wii 2 a.k.a. nintendo tab )

Note two:

Sony currently looks like to be #1 during the 8th gen

Note three:

Microsoft will once again build a solid userbase, but will lose the "war" with around 9 million unit difference

 

Now, show me your visions!!!

Found it! November 2013 LMAO

gg, post the thread.

I drew a picture using my amazing MS Paint skills of what I wanted instead of the WiiU after it was revealed. It was basically a Switch. 2 controllers attached to the side of a tablet that could dock and the upgraded wiimotes could be used as a split controller for big screen play. Whatever hosting site I used at the time is gone now though and wayback doesn't have it either.

I found another post where I do a few bullet points of how/why Switch will beat 3DS and the person quoting me says every one of my points is either nonsensical, illogical or completely baseless. I don't want to embarrass that person so I'll keep it to myself unless they're OK with it being posted.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Pyro as Bill said:
kirby007 said:

Found it! November 2013 LMAO

gg, post the thread.

I drew a picture using my amazing MS Paint skills of what I wanted instead of the WiiU after it was revealed. It was basically a Switch. 2 controllers attached to the side of a tablet that could dock and the upgraded wiimotes could be used as a split controller for big screen play. Whatever hosting site I used at the time is gone now though and wayback doesn't have it either.

I found another post where I do a few bullet points of how/why Switch will beat 3DS and the person quoting me says every one of my points is either nonsensical, illogical or completely baseless. I don't want to embarrass that person so I'll keep it to myself unless they're OK with it being posted.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/173316/generation-8-prediction-time-worldwide/1/



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

80m. I figured it be a 3DS style success, but definitely didn't expect it to be Wii/DS tier.



kirby007 said:
Pyro as Bill said:

gg, post the thread.

I drew a picture using my amazing MS Paint skills of what I wanted instead of the WiiU after it was revealed. It was basically a Switch. 2 controllers attached to the side of a tablet that could dock and the upgraded wiimotes could be used as a split controller for big screen play. Whatever hosting site I used at the time is gone now though and wayback doesn't have it either.

I found another post where I do a few bullet points of how/why Switch will beat 3DS and the person quoting me says every one of my points is either nonsensical, illogical or completely baseless. I don't want to embarrass that person so I'll keep it to myself unless they're OK with it being posted.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/173316/generation-8-prediction-time-worldwide/1/

"..I'll include the handhelds, because they're also 8th Gen, but I won't include this hypothetical 9th Gen Nintendo console of yours which somehow counts as some sort of 8th Gen hybrid. I don't think it's going to happen anyway...."

hehehe

Did Nintendo Tab = Tablet?



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!