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Forums - Sales Discussion - Before The Switch Launched, What was your sales prediction for the Switch?

 

Sales Prediction BEFORE Switch Launched:

<13Million 0 0%
 
13-25M 3 3.95%
 
25-40M 7 9.21%
 
40-60M 14 18.42%
 
60-80M 22 28.95%
 
80-100M 15 19.74%
 
100M+ 15 19.74%
 
Total:76
curl-6 on 08 June 2020
Pyro as Bill said:
kirby007 said:

Found it! November 2013 LMAO

gg, post the thread.

I drew a picture using my amazing MS Paint skills of what I wanted instead of the WiiU after it was revealed. It was basically a Switch. 2 controllers attached to the side of a tablet that could dock and the upgraded wiimotes could be used as a split controller for big screen play. Whatever hosting site I used at the time is gone now though and wayback doesn't have it either.

I found another post where I do a few bullet points of how/why Switch will beat 3DS and the person quoting me says every one of my points is either nonsensical, illogical or completely baseless. I don't want to embarrass that person so I'll keep it to myself unless they're OK with it being posted.

Please share this. I want to see.



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Ryng on 09 June 2020

I predicted 15m in the first year, 80m lifetime.
Did not expect Switch to have a similar sales curve to XBOX and Playstation console and i thought second year would have been the peak.

I was at least right for the first 2 years (15m and 17m), but 3rd year was so much bigger than i ever expected back in 2016, and the 4th year is most likely gonna be the peak...

I'm glad Switch did way better than what i expected.



Jumpin on 09 June 2020

I know I I'm on record saying 1 million and then amending it to 100 billion after a 3170 year lifespan. But what I actually meant was approximately 55 million during the first three years.
I'm that good. It's true! It's true!



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

The_Liquid_Laser on 10 June 2020
Mnementh said:

I made a poll asking for the sales back in january 2017. More than half of voters expected less than 50%. Less than 10% of voters choose '>100M'.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=224679

I myself was expecting 50M.`

Actually they were even more pessimistic than that, because a lot of people voted in that poll after the Switch was released.  Early results were more like ~70% expected Switch to sell less than 50m, and only 4-5% predicted 100m+.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9096583



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

Shaunodon on 11 June 2020

I wasn't on this site back then and never had any real prediction in mind, but I remember not being so impressed by the reveal of Switch, and never felt like it was received too well overall. Based on that, probably 40-60M, mostly from merging their two playerbases.

It would've been another relative failure, but I was never so pessimistic to think that'd force them out of the console market. I knew they still had enough bank, that they could afford another bad system or two before it became a real discussion.



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Stuart23 on 23 October 2020

I thought it would sell around 50M best-case-scenario and 20M worst-case. For the amount of people back in the day posting that it would sell equal or worst than the Wii U, that was a high prediction lol

I always thought it was silly even with my pessimistic predictions. Just the fact that the console was a hybrid and would eventually receive a mainline Pokémon was enough to say it would at least not be another Wii U.



Switch Friend Code: SW - 1286-0025-9138

Agente42 on 25 October 2020

80 -100M range.

1) unified the portable nintendo+ good stationary Nintendo + chunks of psvita consumers.

2) First time Nintendo is alone on the portable side.

3) A revolutionary system seller like BoTW

Now, I believe will sell 130+, if Nintendo doesn't screw up. 



Agente42 on 25 October 2020
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Mnementh said:

I made a poll asking for the sales back in january 2017. More than half of voters expected less than 50%. Less than 10% of voters choose '>100M'.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=224679

I myself was expecting 50M.`

Actually they were even more pessimistic than that, because a lot of people voted in that poll after the Switch was released.  Early results were more like ~70% expected Switch to sell less than 50m, and only 4-5% predicted 100m+.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9096583

I voted 100M



Dulfite on 25 October 2020

I thought it would do 3ds + Wii U numbers. I thought that was the actual Nintendo market, and the Wii/DS were bloated with a bunch of old people and ones just wanting Wii Sports.

So I voted for 100 mil or so.



Platina on 25 October 2020

By browsing through the old threads, it looks like my predictions went from 100M to 50M to 40M

Probably a reason why I don't make numbered predictions anymore

I just need to update my prediction with new data



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