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Forums - Sales Discussion - Before The Switch Launched, What was your sales prediction for the Switch?

 

Sales Prediction BEFORE Switch Launched:

<13Million 0 0%
 
13-25M 3 3.95%
 
25-40M 7 9.21%
 
40-60M 14 18.42%
 
60-80M 22 28.95%
 
80-100M 15 19.74%
 
100M+ 15 19.74%
 
Total:76

Even during the endless year and a half of wild rumors and speculation about NX, many of which correctly predicted it would be a hybrid, I had guessed that if those rumors were true (which they were) that it would sell pretty well. As soon as I saw the reveal trailer in October 2017, I KNEW it would succeed! I had 80-100 million locked in. Even ignoring everything else, I knew that the Switch was the successor for the 3DS, Wii U, and Vita right from the start. So I knew at the very least that 80 million was the minimum because I considered that a respectable portion of 3DS and Wii U owners overlapped. I was rolling my eyes and shaking my head at the most pessimistic predictions even back then. I knew it would do well and there was nothing to worry about...

...But even I didn't think it'd be capable of THIS!

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 07 June 2020

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NightlyPoe said:
leo-j said:
I expected 20-30 million, but now I’m at 75-90.

You think there's any possibility of it only selling another 17.5 million units?

I think it is unlikely to only hit 75 M. But I am weary of nintendo. They dropped the wii hard once it approached 100 million. Also idk how the switch is going to be affected by the game streaming market with the new nexgen platforms. If the switch 4k or super switch is counted as a separate entity, 80-90 million is my guesstimate. If the super switch is the same as ps4 pro, and not 3ds to ds, then i’m being super conservative.



 

mM

It's kind of hard to say. I remember being not too blown away by the trailer. Aside from Mario Odyssey, it all seemed to be games that were available on the Wii U or elsewhere (it wasn't clear at the time if Splatoon was a new game or a port of the first). I recognized the concept had more appeal than the Wii U, so I certainly expected it to do better, but I didn't think it would do this much better. I just didn't think the demand for a hybrid console was that great.

At the moment the thing debuted... I imagine I would have said 50 million give or take 10 million units. As it got closer to launch I probably would have said more, but I still wouldn't have guessed it'd potentially do 100 million as it seems like it may. Happy to be wrong.

On the contrary, I was very bullish about the Wii U when that was announced, so maybe my judgment isn't all that great XD



curl-6 said:

Yeah no offense but I feel like the majority of posts and votes here are made with hindsight, rather than how people honestly felt at the time.

Back in 2016/pre-launch 2017, the majority of forum-going gamers thought it would fail and the few who dared to suggest it would pull the kind of numbers in the most popular poll answers here were seen as delusional.

Just look at the prediction threads we had here, (does anyone have a link?) most people voted under 40 million if I recall correctly.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/221574/early-nintendo-switch-sales-predictions/1/

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/227213/nintendo-switch-selling-life-time-poll/1/

and for an idea of what some people thought the direction Nintendo should go instead.....

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/224602/can-we-agree-nintendo-should-go-third-party-now/1/



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Pyro as Bill said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah no offense but I feel like the majority of posts and votes here are made with hindsight, rather than how people honestly felt at the time.

Back in 2016/pre-launch 2017, the majority of forum-going gamers thought it would fail and the few who dared to suggest it would pull the kind of numbers in the most popular poll answers here were seen as delusional.

Just look at the prediction threads we had here, (does anyone have a link?) most people voted under 40 million if I recall correctly.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/221574/early-nintendo-switch-sales-predictions/1/
https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/227213/nintendo-switch-selling-life-time-poll/1/

Couldn't find a post of mine in either thread. Not surprising, really, I don't usually make predictions for stuff I'm unsure about. But going as far back as the initial reveal, I really couldn't imagine it selling less than 40 million, and that thought remained after the January 2017 presentation, too - which I don't understand why people disliked. That trailer made it really clear that Zelda was gonna be a really big thing, but I did wonder if it could carry the system on its own at launch. It sure could.

But yeah, generally when balancing my conservative side (not getting high hopes to avoid disappointment) with my non-conservative side (which was telling me that the Switch would be a success for sure), I did think around 50-60 million. 40 at worst. It made no sense to me why people thought it'd fail, it never did.



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Well, I found my original prediction from the 2nd thread. And just as I thought, I ended up raising the floor and ceiling of my prediction.



curl-6 said:

Yeah no offense but I feel like the majority of posts and votes here are made with hindsight, rather than how people honestly felt at the time.

Back in 2016/pre-launch 2017, the majority of forum-going gamers thought it would fail and the few who dared to suggest it would pull the kind of numbers in the most popular poll answers here were seen as delusional.

Just look at the prediction threads we had here, (does anyone have a link?) most people voted under 40 million if I recall correctly.

My megathread from January 2017 contains an arsenal of links to other old threads from the time, but you'll have to scroll past a lot of text to get to all the green links.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/224719/switch-sales-predictions-open-your-eyes-update-switch-ltd-shipments-reach-5577m-by-march-31st-forecast-for-fiscal-year-2020-is-19m/1/

The thread itself unsurprisingly includes a lot of doubters too.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

In the second thread for my original.

"Where's the poll on holiday?

I'll give 80m as my prediction given it's unified nature."



My prediction was (and actually is) 100/110M.



I made a poll asking for the sales back in january 2017. More than half of voters expected less than 50%. Less than 10% of voters choose '>100M'.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=224679

I myself was expecting 50M.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

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