Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Does Anybody Believe the NSW can sell around 150mil lifetime?

Does NSW have a Chance at 150mil Lifetime?

Yes 28 22.58%
 
130-140mil max 7 5.65%
 
120mil around 29 23.39%
 
110mil around 38 30.65%
 
100mil cuz Iím pessimistic 22 17.74%
 
Total:124

It's possible; a lot of things would have to go right but it's possible. Personally, I think it'll do 130-140m since I don't expect a new Nintendo console until holiday 2023 - Spring 2024 based on how long it will take Nintendo EPD's main teams to come up with compelling software for the Switch's successor. There's also ample room to grow in Europe and the US once the Classic Switch gets its first formal price drop and Nintendo will surely fully support it until its successor launches since it's all they have.



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Why not to be bolder with Switch lite S, Switch Pro, Switch Pro XL and more in the future iteration, how about 250m+?



Only if they bundle them with Wii Us



Nah, I think between 105-120



1doesnotsimply

Shiken said:

The problem with this approach is that...

...

So I see your logic, I really do.  However it does not work nearly as good in practice as you think it does in your head.  If that is all you have to lean on, you will almost certainly be proven wrong in the end.

Good points and yes, my statement was more general. There are other factors but considering they are (or appear to be) aiming for the Switch to be both their handheld and home console, it stands to reason the market isn't just handheld or home, it's both. Add in many DS buyers aren't really going to buy a Switch as they weren't gamer gamers, and have since moved on to mobile.

Over 100 mil is easy I think, depending on the lineup and other factors, I can also see people buying multiple units as well, so nearing 150 could be a potential number.



Hmm, pie.

500 million + seller. You heard it here first! Do I get an old VGC vibe?

OT: 120 million. The Switch is selling as successful Nintendo systems usually do. But as soon as Nintendo will push their first-party developers to the S2, sales will drop considerably. Still, IMO it will be the most successfull Nintendo system revenue wise, easily surpassing the DS by quite a margin.



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If you were a user named Zero you would believe it can sell over 150M.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

vivster said:
If they continue to churn out dozens of different versions that people have to double, triple and quadruple dip for one reason or another, sure.

The question is if they'll ever get an active player base that comes even close to 100m.

We can look at either that or let's say 1.5B retail games sold.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

tbone51 said:
vivster said:
If they continue to churn out dozens of different versions that people have to double, triple and quadruple dip for one reason or another, sure.

The question is if they'll ever get an active player base that comes even close to 100m.

Not even the DS or ps2 has close to 100m active players so that don’t matter. It’s better to compare software ratios instead 

PS4 had between 95-100M active players/console this year announced by Sony.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Some people still believing the switch will reach $149 price point? I’m seeing the lowest to be $199.

IMO, any price cut of the “normal” switch is tied to the price of switch lite.

Even Nintendo stated a few months ago that they are not planning to cut the price of the switch “as long as they can”.

So no, I don’t see the switch doing 150 Million Units.



tbone51 said:
JRPGfan said:

100m = cuz im pessimitic wtf?

The Switch has its best years behinde it, nearly all its big IPs have had titles, and its past halfway point in its lifecycle.
Its at ~54m units.

Why would it suddenly sell 100m extra units in its last 2-3 years?


Can it happend? yes, almost anything in life can.
Will this happend? highly unlikely.

It’s best year is either this year or next year. It’s at 54mil but it’s not at the halfway point yet. And your correct it won’t sell 100mil in 2-3 years but it can do it in 6-7 years

You think it will last that long? Switch until 2027 ?
Switch already "feels" like its a gen behinde the PS4/XB1.
Come next gen (PS5+XSX) its gonna be like 2+ gens plus behinde in terms of tech and graphics.

Will nintendo users just not care?
I suspect Nintendo do a Switch 2, sometime around 2021-2022.