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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Does Anybody Believe the NSW can sell around 150mil lifetime?

 

Does NSW have a Chance at 150mil Lifetime?

Yes 28 22.58%
 
130-140mil max 7 5.65%
 
120mil around 29 23.39%
 
110mil around 38 30.65%
 
100mil cuz I’m pessimistic 22 17.74%
 
Total:124
Darwinianevolution said:

I get your points, but there are also problems for a single dedicated piece of hardware to reach that number anymore.

-Nintendo might just prioritize margins and profits over total sales. They could just keep the prices the same until the very last moment, when there's a successor on the horizon.

-Nintendo has already released most of its heavy hitters: Zelda, 3D Mario and Mario Maker, Mario Kart, Smash, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Splatoon... It still has cards to play, sure, but most of the games that really drive sales are out already. People who might buy a Switch for Mario 3D World HD have already bought it for Mario, the same for Pokemon, the same for BotW 2, Fire Emblem...

-The sheer amount of competition between entertainment medias is massive, and that is going to cut the numbers, even if the growth of the gaming public keeps up. The PS2 got the advantage of being the best DVD player of its day, and the DS released at the height of portable gaming just before mobile stole that market away. The Switch's gimmick might not be enough to carry it to that sales number.

-Whether we like it or not, the coronavirus is going to hurt the economy, and so all entertainment businesses are going to take a hit because people will have to prioritize. That will slow down hardware sales in general, not just the Switch.

I will concede the point of longevity, though. I hope Nintendo keeps the Switch for a decade or so, that could actually do the deed and make it reach those numbers, though I doubt they'll keep it for that long.

- Nintendo won't keep the same prices. They've never done that. Production costs go down over time, sales go down over time too; that's why price cuts happen eventually.

- That was addressed in fact 3 in my previous post. Sequels still drive hardware sales and keep interest high. The multitude of Pokémon games on Nintendo handhelds has never hurt hardware sales, but always helped.

- By now there should be a good understanding that mobile gaming is not the same as console gaming, but apparently it's still not properly understood that the 3D of the 3DS hurt console sales much, much more than smart devices. Not to mention that Nintendo's mobile titles have actually increased the sales of their console hardware and software.

- The vast majority of people is going to get through the corona crisis fine. The worst part of it was bridged with help programs by states, now most countries are in the process of opening things up again. Besides, Switch is in the best position during a time of financial crisis because it has the lowest hardware price of generation 9 consoles. Even people without a job buy themselves something to pass the time every now and then, and the previous financial crisis in the late 2000s hasn't really had that big of an impact on the console market, so the current one shouldn't be overestimated in terms of negative impact.

The 3DS kept going for nearly a decade, so I don't see why Switch's life would be shorter. More importantly though, Switch is performing at notably higher levels than the 3DS.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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RolStoppable said:

Lots of baffling responses in this thread. Three years ago it was somewhat understandable that people willfully ignored historical sales data and had no clue that it was already a done deal that Switch is the successor to both the 3DS and Wii U, so their stupid low lifetime sales predictions for Switch could be excused to some degree. But today? Nah, people should have learned a thing or two by now, especially those who've been around for the last few years.

Through 36 months Switch is tracking 6m ahead of the PS4. The current outlook is that Switch sales will be bigger in 2020 than they were in 2019, so the console hasn't peaked yet and therefore is going to increase its lead over the PS4 further once we've completed month 48. The PS4 is expected to sell between 120-130m lifetime, so in order for Switch to sell less than 120m, people must be expecting the infamous cliff to be approaching.

The common error I see is that people cherrypick historical sales data to arrive at the conclusion of low Switch sales (read: anything below 120m lifetime). There's no interest in learning and understanding how sales materialized, because if there was, the conclusions would be very different.

Fact 1: Price cuts prolong console sales. Switch has yet to see a price cut which is unprecedented for a console that is over three years old. It hasn't even had value-added bundles yet.

Fact 2: Revisions prolong console sales. Switch has only had the Lite model so far, but if you look at the portable consoles of the past, then it's normal that there more than two models over the course of a lifecycle.

Fact 3: Software sells hardware. The reason why Switch didn't peak early is that Nintendo's top development teams don't have to go back and forth between two consoles. This results in a constant stream of killer apps that isn't going to end anytime soon. In the past we've seen a sharp drop in newly released system sellers after year 3, especially on Nintendo home consoles. On the flipside, Nintendo handhelds could always count on new Pokémon games, so if you take that into consideration, it shouldn't be so surprising anymore that Nintendo handhelds had better long term sales.

Fact 4: Successful Nintendo consoles have a lifecycle of six years minimum before their successor launches. The only exception was the GBA due to extraordinary circumstances (Sony attempting to get a headstart over Nintendo's next generation), but something like that isn't going to happen to Switch. Skim over fact 1 to 3 again and put the pieces together: It's obvious that Nintendo is doing everything to give Switch a long lifespan because they keep holding their cards close to the chest instead of playing them early.

Fact 5: Third party support isn't slowing down for Switch. The health of the software pipeline is essential for hardware sales. It's why the PS Vita tanked in America and Europe despite "PS consoles have long lifecycles and always good sales" whereas it wasn't so bad in Japan where the system saw continued support from third parties. In any case, the point is that any analysis that is based on Nintendo vs. Sony is fundamentally stupid because what's important is the state of the software pipeline. Switch is in a great position, so any holes between first party releases are filled by third parties stepping up. Also, after three years of Switch, you should be aware of the importance of AAA third party support, or rather its lack thereof. When it's clear that isn't AAA third party software that has led to the Switch sales that are outpacing the PS4 launch-aligned, then it's also clear that the upcoming PS5 and XSX can't have any damaging influence on Switch's software pipeline.

Fact 6: Switch's technology didn't get outdated as fast as the PS4 and XB1. By the end of its third year, the PS4 already had its Pro model out; the Xbox One X followed a year later. Meanwhile, nothing comparable is on the horizon for Switch. Now you probably wonder how Switch could remain up to date despite having less processing power than consoles that launched 3.5 years earlier. It's because Switch doesn't sell itself on processing power to begin with, hence why a game like Animal Crossing can become one of the biggest blockbuster games of 2020. It's for the same reason that Nintendo doesn't need to worry about upcoming 10-12 TF consoles; being outclassed in processing power can only matter when a console manufacturer defines itself over processing power. But as it is, neither Switch owners nor prospective Switch owners put much, if any, stock in processing power, but rather enjoy what Switch excels at: Quality games anytime, anywhere.

Switch has sold close to 50m units by the end of 2019 and is on track to hit ~70m by the end of 2020. It's outpacing the PS4 and it has everything that is necessary to sell well for a long time. That's why challenging the PS2 and DS sales isn't that much of a long shot. It only is for the people who are stuck in the bubble of "PS consoles sell the best" and therefore start with the conclusion and arrange the facts to fit the conclusion, rather than looking at the facts and then forming a conclusion.

I would add the bubble of "Nintendo consoles get replaced early and don't support their consoles for long", and that's despite Nintendo telling time and again that this won't happen with the Switch.



If they don't launch a successor until 2025, it may make it to 150mm.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
RolStoppable said:

Lots of baffling responses in this thread. Three years ago it was somewhat understandable that people willfully ignored historical sales data and had no clue that it was already a done deal that Switch is the successor to both the 3DS and Wii U, so their stupid low lifetime sales predictions for Switch could be excused to some degree. But today? Nah, people should have learned a thing or two by now, especially those who've been around for the last few years.

Through 36 months Switch is tracking 6m ahead of the PS4. The current outlook is that Switch sales will be bigger in 2020 than they were in 2019, so the console hasn't peaked yet and therefore is going to increase its lead over the PS4 further once we've completed month 48. The PS4 is expected to sell between 120-130m lifetime, so in order for Switch to sell less than 120m, people must be expecting the infamous cliff to be approaching.

The common error I see is that people cherrypick historical sales data to arrive at the conclusion of low Switch sales (read: anything below 120m lifetime). There's no interest in learning and understanding how sales materialized, because if there was, the conclusions would be very different.

Fact 1: Price cuts prolong console sales. Switch has yet to see a price cut which is unprecedented for a console that is over three years old. It hasn't even had value-added bundles yet.

Fact 2: Revisions prolong console sales. Switch has only had the Lite model so far, but if you look at the portable consoles of the past, then it's normal that there more than two models over the course of a lifecycle.

Fact 3: Software sells hardware. The reason why Switch didn't peak early is that Nintendo's top development teams don't have to go back and forth between two consoles. This results in a constant stream of killer apps that isn't going to end anytime soon. In the past we've seen a sharp drop in newly released system sellers after year 3, especially on Nintendo home consoles. On the flipside, Nintendo handhelds could always count on new Pokémon games, so if you take that into consideration, it shouldn't be so surprising anymore that Nintendo handhelds had better long term sales.

Fact 4: Successful Nintendo consoles have a lifecycle of six years minimum before their successor launches. The only exception was the GBA due to extraordinary circumstances (Sony attempting to get a headstart over Nintendo's next generation), but something like that isn't going to happen to Switch. Skim over fact 1 to 3 again and put the pieces together: It's obvious that Nintendo is doing everything to give Switch a long lifespan because they keep holding their cards close to the chest instead of playing them early.

Fact 5: Third party support isn't slowing down for Switch. The health of the software pipeline is essential for hardware sales. It's why the PS Vita tanked in America and Europe despite "PS consoles have long lifecycles and always good sales" whereas it wasn't so bad in Japan where the system saw continued support from third parties. In any case, the point is that any analysis that is based on Nintendo vs. Sony is fundamentally stupid because what's important is the state of the software pipeline. Switch is in a great position, so any holes between first party releases are filled by third parties stepping up. Also, after three years of Switch, you should be aware of the importance of AAA third party support, or rather its lack thereof. When it's clear that isn't AAA third party software that has led to the Switch sales that are outpacing the PS4 launch-aligned, then it's also clear that the upcoming PS5 and XSX can't have any damaging influence on Switch's software pipeline.

Fact 6: Switch's technology didn't get outdated as fast as the PS4 and XB1. By the end of its third year, the PS4 already had its Pro model out; the Xbox One X followed a year later. Meanwhile, nothing comparable is on the horizon for Switch. Now you probably wonder how Switch could remain up to date despite having less processing power than consoles that launched 3.5 years earlier. It's because Switch doesn't sell itself on processing power to begin with, hence why a game like Animal Crossing can become one of the biggest blockbuster games of 2020. It's for the same reason that Nintendo doesn't need to worry about upcoming 10-12 TF consoles; being outclassed in processing power can only matter when a console manufacturer defines itself over processing power. But as it is, neither Switch owners nor prospective Switch owners put much, if any, stock in processing power, but rather enjoy what Switch excels at: Quality games anytime, anywhere.

Switch has sold close to 50m units by the end of 2019 and is on track to hit ~70m by the end of 2020. It's outpacing the PS4 and it has everything that is necessary to sell well for a long time. That's why challenging the PS2 and DS sales isn't that much of a long shot. It only is for the people who are stuck in the bubble of "PS consoles sell the best" and therefore start with the conclusion and arrange the facts to fit the conclusion, rather than looking at the facts and then forming a conclusion.

I would add the bubble of "Nintendo consoles get replaced early and don't support their consoles for long", and that's despite Nintendo telling time and again that this won't happen with the Switch.

Also they kept supporting the 3DS throughout 2017 and 2018.  And the Switch is performing much better for them.  3DS needed a price cut the first year, while Switch still hasn't had one, and isn't even selling with a bundled game.  Switch is also trending above 3DS.  If they kept supporting the 3DS after the Switch launched, then how much more will the support the much more successful Switch?  I mean, Nintendo is a business.  They like easy money just like all businesses do.



no.... unless it start hitting 200k weekly numbers and by then that is around 10 mil or maybe 14-16 mil if they have yearly good holiday numbers... that would still be around 6-7 years.... i think we will get a replacement before that



 

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It depends on when Nintendo offers a successor. In the worst case (for Switch sales) that would be 2022. Switch should have 70+M by the end of this year. If we expect that this is Switch's peak year, then we should see a bit less next year (18M), 12M in 2022 and another 10M until end of life, so there's now way it can sell below 110M. If it should sell below 110M, sales need to drop faster than Wii, which is unlikely because of the hyprid system nature.

I'm not sure if Switch peaks this year, so I voted 120M, which is still pretty pessimistic imo. It currently sells faster than PS4 and legs after the launch of a successor should be fine, because of the hyprid system and room for price cuts.



aikohualda said:
no.... unless it start hitting 200k weekly numbers and by then that is around 10 mil or maybe 14-16 mil if they have yearly good holiday numbers... that would still be around 6-7 years.... i think we will get a replacement before that

Uhm... what?

bold: You are aware that the Switch just dropped below 200k because of shortages, right? Without those, Switch normally sells more around 250k weekly, actually. Just have a look here for weekly sales this and last year: Click 

italic: You are aware that the Switch sold at least those 14-16M Every single year, right?

underlined: Dude, we just had a discussion how the Switch will not be replaced early, and that the 3DS already didn't



Bofferbrauer2 said:
aikohualda said:
no.... unless it start hitting 200k weekly numbers and by then that is around 10 mil or maybe 14-16 mil if they have yearly good holiday numbers... that would still be around 6-7 years.... i think we will get a replacement before that

Uhm... what?

bold: You are aware that the Switch just dropped below 200k because of shortages, right? Without those, Switch normally sells more around 250k weekly, actually. Just have a look here for weekly sales this and last year: Click 

italic: You are aware that the Switch sold at least those 14-16M Every single year, right?

underlined: Dude, we just had a discussion how the Switch will not be replaced early, and that the 3DS already didn't

true! damn nsw is a beast and i hate the new weely graph... who designed that?

but how many more years would switch will sell 14-16 m/year though?

yeah 3ds didnt get replaced and it is not selling well anyways... didn't even hit 100 million

when do you think nsw will hit 150m?



 

aikohualda said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Uhm... what?

bold: You are aware that the Switch just dropped below 200k because of shortages, right? Without those, Switch normally sells more around 250k weekly, actually. Just have a look here for weekly sales this and last year: Click 

italic: You are aware that the Switch sold at least those 14-16M Every single year, right?

underlined: Dude, we just had a discussion how the Switch will not be replaced early, and that the 3DS already didn't

true! damn nsw is a beast and i hate the new weely graph... who designed that?

but how many more years would switch will sell 14-16 m/year though?

yeah 3ds didnt get replaced and it is not selling well anyways... didn't even hit 100 million

when do you think nsw will hit 150m?

Switch will probably hit ~20M this FY and 70M shipped by the end of the year. It didn't have a pricecut yet, so there's no reason sales would slow anytime soon.

3DS needed a massive pricecut to even take off the ground, that's why it didn't reach nearly as high as the DS did and why sales crashed down after the first 2 years, something that ain't happening with the Switch.

If Switch will reach 150M, then probably only by 2025 or even later, when the successor is already out. But like with the 3DS, I really doubt Nintendo will cut support for the Switch when the new console comes out, just successively slow it down over the years until it gets phased down when the successor is already selling for a couple years.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
aikohualda said:

true! damn nsw is a beast and i hate the new weely graph... who designed that?

but how many more years would switch will sell 14-16 m/year though?

yeah 3ds didnt get replaced and it is not selling well anyways... didn't even hit 100 million

when do you think nsw will hit 150m?

Switch will probably hit ~20M this FY and 70M shipped by the end of the year. It didn't have a pricecut yet, so there's no reason sales would slow anytime soon.

3DS needed a massive pricecut to even take off the ground, that's why it didn't reach nearly as high as the DS did and why sales crashed down after the first 2 years, something that ain't happening with the Switch.

If Switch will reach 150M, then probably only by 2025 or even later, when the successor is already out. But like with the 3DS, I really doubt Nintendo will cut support for the Switch when the new console comes out, just successively slow it down over the years until it gets phased down when the successor is already selling for a couple years.

i wish they would do switch pro or something to push it and the regular swtiches will be cheaper... as long as it is effective... like 1080p oled or something with higher frame rate.... :P

New 3ds didnt feel right though