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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Does Anybody Believe the NSW can sell around 150mil lifetime?

 

Does NSW have a Chance at 150mil Lifetime?

Yes 28 22.58%
 
130-140mil max 7 5.65%
 
120mil around 29 23.39%
 
110mil around 38 30.65%
 
100mil cuz I’m pessimistic 22 17.74%
 
Total:124

No way. The PlayStation 2 and Nintendo DS were lightning in a bottle. Even 100 million is something very few game platforms have achieved. 100-110 million are the most optimistic I would be about the Switch's lifetime sales.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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I seriously doubt it.

But so far, it has consistently exceeded my sales expectations.



I have always believed that if the cards are played right it could do it but it has to be played right.



No.

In the U.S., while the Switch is running a slight surplus over the DS (though only if you ignore the Nov.+Dec. 2004 sales for the DS), that surplus has been rapidly eroded and is on the verge of becoming a deficit. While the DS has a weak start in the U.S., it experienced continual strong growth for its first five years (esp. after the Lite was released), with an absolutely astonishing, record-setting performance in 2009. The Switch meanwhile has not exhibited that level of growth. In fact, aside from boost from this past September from the Lite and the anomalous spike last month due to the one-two punch of Animal Crossing and COVID-19-induced panic buying, its growth rate has been trending downward since Nov. 2018. The Switch sold 6.5M last year, while the DS sold over 8.4M in 2007. It remains to be seen if the Switch will be up or down overall by the end of this year (Q2 is probably going to take a big hit, as might Q3, though it's possible that bottled-up demand could boost sales once we're post-quarantine, which should make up for at least some of that). But the DS sold a whopping 9.95M units in 2008, and that's going to be a tall order for the Switch. Even if the Switch remains flat this year and next year, it will have racked up a massive deficit against the DS, possibly in excess of 8 million units. The Switch has its work cut out for it if it's going to be the new #1 system in the history of the U.S. market. Honestly, I doubt it will sell much more than 40M, maybe 45M at the absolute most, and sub-40M is still not out of the question.

In Japan, the Switch has already racked up a massive deficit against the DS. Again ignoring the DS's 2004 launch holiday sales, by the end of last year the Switch was already over 8.3M units in the hole against the DS. While the Animal Crossing boost and last-minute rush did reduce that deficit by several hundred thousand units, the Switch still has a deficit of over 7.6M units against the DS. While the same caveats about this year's Switch sales also apply here, the Switch's considerable 2020 YTD surplus over the DS's 2008 could easily be mostly eroded by time we're post-quarantine, and the deficit could be back to over 8M. The Switch still has a chance to reduce its deficit against the DS over the next two or three years, but a deficit of 8 million units is, given the size of the market, a gap that will be near-impossible to close.

And in Europe, well, based on VGC's figures the Switch isn't doing nearly as well as the DS. Like, it's not even close. The DS sold over twice as many units in 2007 as the Switch did last year. The current deficit is staggering and growing. The Switch will need to sell another 41M units between now and when it's discontinued to match the DS. There is no way we'll see the kind of growth needed to accomplish that. It would have to sell at 2019 levels for another eight years. Best-case scenario, I see the Switch maybe doing 35M in Europe lifetime.


Europe is tilted way too far in the DS's favor. It's nearly the same case in Japan. There will almost certainly be an ever-growing gap in the DS's favor in the U.S. over the next three years. Realistically, the Switch will fall far, far short of the DS.

Most likely outcome for final lifetime tally: 120 million, plus or minus 10M.



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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

The Switch looks like to sell 100m units unless Nintendo cuts its lifespan short like they did with the GBA. Nintendo will be able to push the system to its limits for a while, and we'll still get many PS360 ports and the ocasional 3rd party exclusive, so 100m is achievable, especially if they make more affordable versions of the consoles. 150m, though? Too much. No other videogame console is ever going to reach PS2-DS levels, too much competition from all sides nowadays, not to mention the rate of evolving technology is cutting the consoles' lifespam shorter and shorter.



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No. 100-120M is possible.
Maybe even 150M could be reachable, but Ninty will replace NS with a new and more powerful hybrid before it comes close to that goal: after PS5 and XB Series X launch, quite soon NS specs will become insufficient even for scaled down versions of the biggest games, and while portable games are probably the most important for NS, Ninty doesn't want to lose home games market share. Anyhow, NS won't be killed immediately after NS2 launch, and it will receive new games for many years anyway, so very high numbers are almost sure, but 150M are most probably out of reach.



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Lots of baffling responses in this thread. Three years ago it was somewhat understandable that people willfully ignored historical sales data and had no clue that it was already a done deal that Switch is the successor to both the 3DS and Wii U, so their stupid low lifetime sales predictions for Switch could be excused to some degree. But today? Nah, people should have learned a thing or two by now, especially those who've been around for the last few years.

Through 36 months Switch is tracking 6m ahead of the PS4. The current outlook is that Switch sales will be bigger in 2020 than they were in 2019, so the console hasn't peaked yet and therefore is going to increase its lead over the PS4 further once we've completed month 48. The PS4 is expected to sell between 120-130m lifetime, so in order for Switch to sell less than 120m, people must be expecting the infamous cliff to be approaching.

The common error I see is that people cherrypick historical sales data to arrive at the conclusion of low Switch sales (read: anything below 120m lifetime). There's no interest in learning and understanding how sales materialized, because if there was, the conclusions would be very different.

Fact 1: Price cuts prolong console sales. Switch has yet to see a price cut which is unprecedented for a console that is over three years old. It hasn't even had value-added bundles yet.

Fact 2: Revisions prolong console sales. Switch has only had the Lite model so far, but if you look at the portable consoles of the past, then it's normal that there more than two models over the course of a lifecycle.

Fact 3: Software sells hardware. The reason why Switch didn't peak early is that Nintendo's top development teams don't have to go back and forth between two consoles. This results in a constant stream of killer apps that isn't going to end anytime soon. In the past we've seen a sharp drop in newly released system sellers after year 3, especially on Nintendo home consoles. On the flipside, Nintendo handhelds could always count on new Pokémon games, so if you take that into consideration, it shouldn't be so surprising anymore that Nintendo handhelds had better long term sales.

Fact 4: Successful Nintendo consoles have a lifecycle of six years minimum before their successor launches. The only exception was the GBA due to extraordinary circumstances (Sony attempting to get a headstart over Nintendo's next generation), but something like that isn't going to happen to Switch. Skim over fact 1 to 3 again and put the pieces together: It's obvious that Nintendo is doing everything to give Switch a long lifespan because they keep holding their cards close to the chest instead of playing them early.

Fact 5: Third party support isn't slowing down for Switch. The health of the software pipeline is essential for hardware sales. It's why the PS Vita tanked in America and Europe despite "PS consoles have long lifecycles and always good sales" whereas it wasn't so bad in Japan where the system saw continued support from third parties. In any case, the point is that any analysis that is based on Nintendo vs. Sony is fundamentally stupid because what's important is the state of the software pipeline. Switch is in a great position, so any holes between first party releases are filled by third parties stepping up. Also, after three years of Switch, you should be aware of the importance of AAA third party support, or rather its lack thereof. When it's clear that isn't AAA third party software that has led to the Switch sales that are outpacing the PS4 launch-aligned, then it's also clear that the upcoming PS5 and XSX can't have any damaging influence on Switch's software pipeline.

Fact 6: Switch's technology didn't get outdated as fast as the PS4 and XB1. By the end of its third year, the PS4 already had its Pro model out; the Xbox One X followed a year later. Meanwhile, nothing comparable is on the horizon for Switch. Now you probably wonder how Switch could remain up to date despite having less processing power than consoles that launched 3.5 years earlier. It's because Switch doesn't sell itself on processing power to begin with, hence why a game like Animal Crossing can become one of the biggest blockbuster games of 2020. It's for the same reason that Nintendo doesn't need to worry about upcoming 10-12 TF consoles; being outclassed in processing power can only matter when a console manufacturer defines itself over processing power. But as it is, neither Switch owners nor prospective Switch owners put much, if any, stock in processing power, but rather enjoy what Switch excels at: Quality games anytime, anywhere.

Switch has sold close to 50m units by the end of 2019 and is on track to hit ~70m by the end of 2020. It's outpacing the PS4 and it has everything that is necessary to sell well for a long time. That's why challenging the PS2 and DS sales isn't that much of a long shot. It only is for the people who are stuck in the bubble of "PS consoles sell the best" and therefore start with the conclusion and arrange the facts to fit the conclusion, rather than looking at the facts and then forming a conclusion.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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RolStoppable said:

Lots of baffling responses in this thread. Three years ago it was somewhat understandable that people willfully ignored historical sales data and had no clue that it was already a done deal that Switch is the successor to both the 3DS and Wii U, so their stupid low lifetime sales predictions for Switch could be excused to some degree. But today? Nah, people should have learned a thing or two by now, especially those who've been around for the last few years.

Through 36 months Switch is tracking 6m ahead of the PS4. The current outlook is that Switch sales will be bigger in 2020 than they were in 2019, so the console hasn't peaked yet and therefore is going to increase its lead over the PS4 further once we've completed month 48. The PS4 is expected to sell between 120-130m lifetime, so in order for Switch to sell less than 120m, people must be expecting the infamous cliff to be approaching.

The common error I see is that people cherrypick historical sales data to arrive at the conclusion of low Switch sales (read: anything below 120m lifetime). There's no interest in learning and understanding how sales materialized, because if there was, the conclusions would be very different.

Fact 1: Price cuts prolong console sales. Switch has yet to see a price cut which is unprecedented for a console that is over three years old. It hasn't even had value-added bundles yet.

Fact 2: Revisions prolong console sales. Switch has only had the Lite model so far, but if you look at the portable consoles of the past, then it's normal that there more than two models over the course of a lifecycle.

Fact 3: Software sells hardware. The reason why Switch didn't peak early is that Nintendo's top development teams don't have to go back and forth between two consoles. This results in a constant stream of killer apps that isn't going to end anytime soon. In the past we've seen a sharp drop in newly released system sellers after year 3, especially on Nintendo home consoles. On the flipside, Nintendo handhelds could always count on new Pokémon games, so if you take that into consideration, it shouldn't be so surprising anymore that Nintendo handhelds had better long term sales.

Fact 4: Successful Nintendo consoles have a lifecycle of six years minimum before their successor launches. The only exception was the GBA due to extraordinary circumstances (Sony attempting to get a headstart over Nintendo's next generation), but something like that isn't going to happen to Switch. Skim over fact 1 to 3 again and put the pieces together: It's obvious that Nintendo is doing everything to give Switch a long lifespan because they keep holding their cards close to the chest instead of playing them early.

Fact 5: Third party support isn't slowing down for Switch. The health of the software pipeline is essential for hardware sales. It's why the PS Vita tanked in America and Europe despite "PS consoles have long lifecycles and always good sales" whereas it wasn't so bad in Japan where the system saw continued support from third parties. In any case, the point is that any analysis that is based on Nintendo vs. Sony is fundamentally stupid because what's important is the state of the software pipeline. Switch is in a great position, so any holes between first party releases are filled by third parties stepping up. Also, after three years of Switch, you should be aware of the importance of AAA third party support, or rather its lack thereof. When it's clear that isn't AAA third party software that has led to the Switch sales that are outpacing the PS4 launch-aligned, then it's also clear that the upcoming PS5 and XSX can't have any damaging influence on Switch's software pipeline.

Fact 6: Switch's technology didn't get outdated as fast as the PS4 and XB1. By the end of its third year, the PS4 already had its Pro model out; the Xbox One X followed a year later. Meanwhile, nothing comparable is on the horizon for Switch. Now you probably wonder how Switch could remain up to date despite having less processing power than consoles that launched 3.5 years earlier. It's because Switch doesn't sell itself on processing power to begin with, hence why a game like Animal Crossing can become one of the biggest blockbuster games of 2020. It's for the same reason that Nintendo doesn't need to worry about upcoming 10-12 TF consoles; being outclassed in processing power can only matter when a console manufacturer defines itself over processing power. But as it is, neither Switch owners nor prospective Switch owners put much, if any, stock in processing power, but rather enjoy what Switch excels at: Quality games anytime, anywhere.

Switch has sold close to 50m units by the end of 2019 and is on track to hit ~70m by the end of 2020. It's outpacing the PS4 and it has everything that is necessary to sell well for a long time. That's why challenging the PS2 and DS sales isn't that much of a long shot. It only is for the people who are stuck in the bubble of "PS consoles sell the best" and therefore start with the conclusion and arrange the facts to fit the conclusion, rather than looking at the facts and then forming a conclusion.

I get your points, but there are also problems for a single dedicated piece of hardware to reach that number anymore.

-Nintendo might just prioritize margins and profits over total sales. They could just keep the prices the same until the very last moment, when there's a successor on the horizon.

-Nintendo has already released most of its heavy hitters: Zelda, 3D Mario and Mario Maker, Mario Kart, Smash, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Splatoon... It still has cards to play, sure, but most of the games that really drive sales are out already. People who might buy a Switch for Mario 3D World HD have already bought it for Mario, the same for Pokemon, the same for BotW 2, Fire Emblem...

-The sheer amount of competition between entertainment medias is massive, and that is going to cut the numbers, even if the growth of the gaming public keeps up. The PS2 got the advantage of being the best DVD player of its day, and the DS released at the height of portable gaming just before mobile stole that market away. The Switch's gimmick might not be enough to carry it to that sales number.

-Whether we like it or not, the coronavirus is going to hurt the economy, and so all entertainment businesses are going to take a hit because people will have to prioritize. That will slow down hardware sales in general, not just the Switch.

I will concede the point of longevity, though. I hope Nintendo keeps the Switch for a decade or so, that could actually do the deed and make it reach those numbers, though I doubt they'll keep it for that long.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

FF7R just came out and pushed PS4 sales a good bit, I don’t understand why people think that sequels to Zelda, Mario, etc wouldn’t do the same



I think it's still up in the air with the Switch, depending on whether the successor launches soon vs. a Switch Pro (which I would loop into the NSW sales numbers). I really don't see the Switch doing under 90M at this point, but anywhere from there to 120M are all within the realm of reasonable. Could it do more? Only if Nintendo doubles down with a round of sequels for all of their existing AAAs on Switch, and brings back some fan favorites with Paper Mario, F-Zero, maybe Earthbound.

150+ would need a terrific lineup of software from Nintendo, something that theoretically should/could happen with all of their studios working on one platform. So far, we haven't seen a huge bump in output from the Big N themselves, which is a bit of a shame.



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