I wouldn't count 150M sold out for the Switch since the Switch pretty much has been blowing expectations ever since launch and it's STILL growing YoY despite the Switch selling insanely well in 2019 alone and it's currently the 2nd fastest selling system after 3 years behind the Wii.

-However, I find it very unlikely it could surpass 150M and I think the main reason why is because the Switch doesn't have the mass market casual appeal like the DS and PS2 did. Where many casuals purchased the DS cause of the touch screen gimmick and also smartphone gaming didn't take off yet, making the DS the only legitimate option to play casual games on the go. And also the PS2 was essentially the cheapest DVD player on the market WHILE being a game console, so many people who weren't even into video games purchased a PS2 just cause it was a cheap DVD player(it also had a ton of games too)

-While the Switch has massively appealed to gamers as the sales prove it, it isn't really appealing to those who aren't that much into video games. Most casual gamers now are ok with playing Candy Crush on their smartphone and they don't see a reason why they should spend 200-300$ on a dedicated game console. While the Switch's hybrid and detachable controllers concept is cool, it isn't really appealing to the soccer moms out there.

-I see the Switch selling around Gameboy numbers between 110-120M and close to the PS4. The only way I could see the Switch getting close to 150M is if they make some type of gimmick or game that appeals well beyond the casual gamers and they extend the life of it by releasing a ton of new models while cutting down the price significantly.

Didn’t know people still using the “PS2 was the cheapest DVD available”

I do remember buying a GE DVD for $99 back in 2001 whilst the PS2 was $299.

OP: I’m seeing the Switch selling around 120 million units.

oooops!

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9139432

It’s best year is either this year or next year. It’s at 54mil but it’s not at the halfway point yet. And your correct it won’t sell 100mil in 2-3 years but it can do it in 6-7 years

Lmao I should go for it right? It wouldn’t be me if I didn’t say it was bold... maybe I’ll change my mind

Go right ahead, I never take offense to another crazy optimistic predictor like myself :)

People have been saying the Switch's best year/s have been behind it since 2018.  It would not be a prediction thread without it being said at least once.

Yeah, just compare that to the early predictions right after the reveal:

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/221574/early-nintendo-switch-sales-predictions/1/

Sooo many thought Switch would bomba hard or at least sell less than 50M at the time, even in their most optimistic projections.

Why only 2-3 years, why past halfway it's lifecycle? Already had that argument with another guy here that there's no reason for Nintendo to cut off their console so early, especially since there's still no pricecut to the base console.

I agree that most of the big guns have fired already, but Nintendo still has a lot of smaller IP to keep things going. Add to this some more Pokemon, BotW 2, Metroid Prime 4, Bayonetta 3, Shin Megami Tensei V, possibly a Mario Party, a Paper Mario, some new 2D Mario, 3D Mario... Seriously, with all the IP Nintendo owns, they could feed a console for a decade with a dozen games each year with only a couple repeats in the entire period.

Yes

If the hybrid Switch can get down to ~$150 and MK9, NNSMB2, Smash, AC, Pokemon, Switch Sports 2, Ring Fit Adventure 2 and more are all cross gen releases then 150m+ is guaranteed assuming no credible handheld or Wii-esque competition comes along, which it won't.

If Gameboy can last as long as it did with ancient tech while Switch launches with a game that the open world masters developing for PC/PS4/XB1 couldn't achieve then there's no reason it couldn't be around for 10-15 years.

The graphics gap is smaller than ever and the gameplay gap is negligible. No-one's talking about smartphones dooming Nintendo's handhelds anymore so it must have become obvious to everyone that the only competition the HH-Switch has is the hybrid.

It all depends how long Nintendo want to keep it on the shelf for.

It's possible; a lot of things would have to go right but it's possible. Personally, I think it'll do 130-140m since I don't expect a new Nintendo console until holiday 2023 - Spring 2024 based on how long it will take Nintendo EPD's main teams to come up with compelling software for the Switch's successor. There's also ample room to grow in Europe and the US once the Classic Switch gets its first formal price drop and Nintendo will surely fully support it until its successor launches since it's all they have.