Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Does Anybody Believe the NSW can sell around 150mil lifetime?

Does NSW have a Chance at 150mil Lifetime?

Yes 28 22.58%
 
130-140mil max 7 5.65%
 
120mil around 29 23.39%
 
110mil around 38 30.65%
 
100mil cuz Iím pessimistic 22 17.74%
 
Total:124

I wouldn't count 150M sold out for the Switch since the Switch pretty much has been blowing expectations ever since launch and it's STILL growing YoY despite the Switch selling insanely well in 2019 alone and it's currently the 2nd fastest selling system after 3 years behind the Wii.

-However, I find it very unlikely it could surpass 150M and I think the main reason why is because the Switch doesn't have the mass market casual appeal like the DS and PS2 did. Where many casuals purchased the DS cause of the touch screen gimmick and also smartphone gaming didn't take off yet, making the DS the only legitimate option to play casual games on the go. And also the PS2 was essentially the cheapest DVD player on the market WHILE being a game console, so many people who weren't even into video games purchased a PS2 just cause it was a cheap DVD player(it also had a ton of games too)

-While the Switch has massively appealed to gamers as the sales prove it, it isn't really appealing to those who aren't that much into video games. Most casual gamers now are ok with playing Candy Crush on their smartphone and they don't see a reason why they should spend 200-300$ on a dedicated game console. While the Switch's hybrid and detachable controllers concept is cool, it isn't really appealing to the soccer moms out there.

-I see the Switch selling around Gameboy numbers between 110-120M and close to the PS4. The only way I could see the Switch getting close to 150M is if they make some type of gimmick or game that appeals well beyond the casual gamers and they extend the life of it by releasing a ton of new models while cutting down the price significantly.



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Didn’t know people still using the “PS2 was the cheapest DVD available”

I do remember buying a GE DVD for $99 back in 2001 whilst the PS2 was $299.

OP: I’m seeing the Switch selling around 120 million units.



I wanted to vote 110 million but miss-clicked.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
tak13 said:

Yes , it can!
Especially after the global sanitary crisis...
However, it won't be as impressive as what DS achieved, DS was indirectly antagonizing with WII and it also had a straight competitor, PSP...
NS is a hyrbird console!
As for the overlapping between WII and DS, do we know how much high was it?
Not so much, in my opinion! Otherwise, Mario kart 8 deluxe wouldn't have such an attach ratio, it's already were Mario kart DS was in a more than double installbase.
At least, my conclusion, based on previous gens of Nintendo hardware, is that the handheld consoles were cannibalizing the sales of the home counterpart...

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9139419

P.S To anyone, don't you dare to blame NS downplaying to MEEE...
For god's sake!

Shhh...don't be giving away the secret.  I've been saying the Switch is going to be the best selling system ever.  I never said it would be the most impressive system ever.  Those are two different things.  Shhhh....

Also that link just takes me back to the exact same post.  Maybe that was meant to link to something else?

oooops!

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9139432



JRPGfan said:

100m = cuz im pessimitic wtf?

The Switch has its best years behinde it, nearly all its big IPs have had titles, and its past halfway point in its lifecycle.
Its at ~54m units.

Why would it suddenly sell 100m extra units in its last 2-3 years?


Can it happend? yes, almost anything in life can.
Will this happend? highly unlikely.

It’s best year is either this year or next year. It’s at 54mil but it’s not at the halfway point yet. And your correct it won’t sell 100mil in 2-3 years but it can do it in 6-7 years



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sethnintendo said:
Not bold prediction? You aren't so bold after all. Jking. I know you don't want to pull a Lucas.

Lmao I should go for it right? It wouldn’t be me if I didn’t say it was bold... maybe I’ll change my mind

Ryng said:
Tbone, you and me are the same person.
Literally today i was thinking "should i make a thread about Switch outselling DS?" Then boom this happen.

Now i still want to make the thread but i don't want to copy you again hahahahaha..
My opinion is that right now it definitively can. I still don't think it will, but i won't be surprised anymore.

I predict 130 million right now, we'll see...

Go right ahead, I never take offense to another crazy optimistic predictor like myself :)



tbone51 said:
JRPGfan said:

100m = cuz im pessimitic wtf?

The Switch has its best years behinde it, nearly all its big IPs have had titles, and its past halfway point in its lifecycle.
Its at ~54m units.

Why would it suddenly sell 100m extra units in its last 2-3 years?


Can it happend? yes, almost anything in life can.
Will this happend? highly unlikely.

It’s best year is either this year or next year. It’s at 54mil but it’s not at the halfway point yet. And your correct it won’t sell 100mil in 2-3 years but it can do it in 6-7 years

People have been saying the Switch's best year/s have been behind it since 2018.  It would not be a prediction thread without it being said at least once.



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tbone51 said:
newwil7l said:
Thinking 130m about now.

Every year we keep bringing the number up lol

remember in 2017 it was 40-50mil then 2018 was 3DS numbers (75mil) then 2019 it was 100mil? 2020 it’s 120mil for most optimistic people. 2021 it’ll be 140mil :p

Yeah, just compare that to the early predictions right after the reveal:

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/221574/early-nintendo-switch-sales-predictions/1/

Sooo many thought Switch would bomba hard or at least sell less than 50M at the time, even in their most optimistic projections.

JRPGfan said:

100m = cuz im pessimitic wtf?

The Switch has its best years behinde it, nearly all its big IPs have had titles, and its past halfway point in its lifecycle.
Its at ~54m units.

Why would it suddenly sell 100m extra units in its last 2-3 years?


Can it happend? yes, almost anything in life can.
Will this happend? highly unlikely.

Why only 2-3 years, why past halfway it's lifecycle? Already had that argument with another guy here that there's no reason for Nintendo to cut off their console so early, especially since there's still no pricecut to the base console.

I agree that most of the big guns have fired already, but Nintendo still has a lot of smaller IP to keep things going. Add to this some more Pokemon, BotW 2, Metroid Prime 4, Bayonetta 3, Shin Megami Tensei V, possibly a Mario Party, a Paper Mario, some new 2D Mario, 3D Mario... Seriously, with all the IP Nintendo owns, they could feed a console for a decade with a dozen games each year with only a couple repeats in the entire period.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 22 April 2020

Yes

If the hybrid Switch can get down to ~$150 and MK9, NNSMB2, Smash, AC, Pokemon, Switch Sports 2, Ring Fit Adventure 2 and more are all cross gen releases then 150m+ is guaranteed assuming no credible handheld or Wii-esque competition comes along, which it won't.

If Gameboy can last as long as it did with ancient tech while Switch launches with a game that the open world masters developing for PC/PS4/XB1 couldn't achieve then there's no reason it couldn't be around for 10-15 years.

The graphics gap is smaller than ever and the gameplay gap is negligible. No-one's talking about smartphones dooming Nintendo's handhelds anymore so it must have become obvious to everyone that the only competition the HH-Switch has is the hybrid.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

It all depends how long Nintendo want to keep it on the shelf for.