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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Does Anybody Believe the NSW can sell around 150mil lifetime?

 

Does NSW have a Chance at 150mil Lifetime?

Yes 28 22.58%
 
130-140mil max 7 5.65%
 
120mil around 29 23.39%
 
110mil around 38 30.65%
 
100mil cuz I’m pessimistic 22 17.74%
 
Total:124

As a business strategy, Nintendo is going with the Hybrid + handheld form factors, which has been having an interesting effect on the market.

So, with my own family, we began with the one Switch which we used as a home console. Now we have five Switches in the home, and everyone uses it as a handheld most of the time. In households with older children than mine, I can see this happening eventually to quite a large degree. Not to mention the office dynamic where people are picking up Switches based on their own co-workers habits (even now that we’re out of office, there are still people wanting to be part of the fun).

The volume of game releases for the Switch is still increasing, and people saying that “Switch has no big games left” in some words or other are completely full of shit. No one knows what Nintendo has up their sleeve, or what game experience the market will be looking for in 2-3, Animal Crossing is a prime example of how Nintendo can make a series blow up, and they already did this with Breath of the Wild. While Nintendo has been known to cut off successful consoles prematurely in the past (like they did with the SNES and Wii), the Switch and this Nintendo is far more adaptable and seeking long term success strategies rather than short term bursts before burning it all down and moving to the next crop. There’s a better chance than ever before that Nintendo will opt for sustainability and advancement this time around. We’ve seen them branch, I think next year they build.



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It could happen but it's on pace to do so. I don't see how it could do more next year unless they drop the price for Classic and lite and release a Pro model.
Imo :

Without a pro model : 110-115 range
With a pro model : 120-130 range

If they can release some mind blowing games, and the pro model happens to be amazing AND they really show support for 7-8 years big time, then it could reach that i guess. But i would need to remain flat next year and slightly decline the year after to complete 3 years over 20 millions, which right now i don't see happening.



Nah. And here's my reason why:
The PS2 and the DS were criminally defective. The original PS2 was made of tissue paper and would break if you farted too loudly. The original DS was easily scratched and the hinge would break really easily. A lot of those consoles were replacement consoles.

The only reason it would is that there really isn't much competition for the Switch's market. But they will depend on the flow of great software and 3rd party support. It'll break 100 million but not 150.



Twitter: @d21lewis

d21lewis said:
Nah. And here's my reason why:
The PS2 and the DS were criminally defective. The original PS2 was made of tissue paper and would break if you farted too loudly. The original DS was easily scratched and the hinge would break really easily. A lot of those consoles were replacement consoles.

The only reason it would is that there really isn't much competition for the Switch's market. But they will depend on the flow of great software and 3rd party support. It'll break 100 million but not 150.

why would you put a ps2 up your ass?



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

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Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

the switch is still the hip thing to own at this time even with next gen consoles around the corner. Just look at what people are talking about switch this, switch that, animal crossing, the switch is sold out. This is already in a time where they have broken down the series x and shown off the dual sense for the ps5, yet people aren't talking about that they are still talking about the switch. yes that will go away but Nintendo will keep up support and release many models as they can. we know this because the firmware updates talk about other types of switches even though we only have the 3 right now. Then there are the game Nintendo still has a bunch of big games to come and if it has a long life more big games will follow.



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kirby007 said:
d21lewis said:
Nah. And here's my reason why:
The PS2 and the DS were criminally defective. The original PS2 was made of tissue paper and would break if you farted too loudly. The original DS was easily scratched and the hinge would break really easily. A lot of those consoles were replacement consoles.

The only reason it would is that there really isn't much competition for the Switch's market. But they will depend on the flow of great software and 3rd party support. It'll break 100 million but not 150.

why would you put a ps2 up your ass?

Metal Gear Solid 3



Twitter: @d21lewis

Not bold prediction? You aren't so bold after all. Jking. I know you don't want to pull a Lucas.



The Fury said:
pikashoe said:

You're joking right. You realise that plenty of people buy both. It is not that simple at all.

Nintendo have released the replacement for the DS and it's called the Switch... no wait, that's the home console. Wait, Pokemon main line title was on the Switch, not DS. But wait, their mainline Zelda title was also on the Switch.

Switch is a replacement for both markets. Add them up.

The problem with this approach is that...

A. Many people who have been buying Switch have not had any Nintendo device in years, indicating that at the very least it will do better than 3DS and WiiU combined easily.  This is also backed up by record sales for games in already popular IPs, indicating a wider audience is being reached than in the past.

B.  Nintendo hardware sales are unpredictable.  They vary from gen to gen.  Just look at GC and GBA into Wii and DS, and then back to 3DS and WiiU.  Even going back to the SNES and GB will have a unique number at the end.  With that in mind, what gen would we be adding?  Not last gen, due to reason A.

C.  We still have no idea how long this gen will last for Switch.  Could we see a Switch Pro?  We already have a Switch Lite.  We also already had a new base line model for Switch release that lead to double dipping.  Hardware sales in general are never 1 to 1 for any console maker anymore, due to these unforseen variables.

So I see your logic, I really do.  However it does not work nearly as good in practice as you think it does in your head.  If that is all you have to lean on, you will almost certainly be proven wrong in the end.

OT

I feel Switch can be Nintendo's second best selling gaming device, period.  The possibility of it hitting 150+ is soley reliant on reason C, I listed above.



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Tbone, you and me are the same person.
Literally today i was thinking "should i make a thread about Switch outselling DS?" Then boom this happen.

Now i still want to make the thread but i don't want to copy you again hahahahaha..
My opinion is that right now it definitively can. I still don't think it will, but i won't be surprised anymore.

I predict 130 million right now, we'll see...



Also let's be honest, 150 million is a more realistic bet than 100 million lmao.