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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Does Anybody Believe the NSW can sell around 150mil lifetime?

 

Does NSW have a Chance at 150mil Lifetime?

Yes 28 22.58%
 
130-140mil max 7 5.65%
 
120mil around 29 23.39%
 
110mil around 38 30.65%
 
100mil cuz I’m pessimistic 22 17.74%
 
Total:124
JWeinCom said:
tbone51 said:

Im asking cuz I don’t think it will have the typical life cycle. I think it’ll have a healthy 8year cycle with year soft drops after 2021 

I don't even think that would do it.  I'm talking more about something like the Gameboy where we had about 12 years.  

It’s hard to predict but there is a possibility of switch doing an upgrade and does a 10 year lifespan. I mean NSW still is full priced, has huge momentum, due to COVID19 I think 2020 will be softer in terms of releases but that’s not stopping it from selling out.  

So many factors, and software can still push NSW throughout years 5-7 easily if spread out right 



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I think the Switch marks a fundamentally new direction for Nintendo, so I expect multiple generations of Switch, rather than some completely new console with a brand new incompatible platform. That old console model is silly, and should have died 15 years ago.

I can't predict Nintendo, but if they're smart, they'll make the next generation of Switch one that actually builds on this generation, and DOESN'T kill the previous generation off by killing support - but rather leaving it around as the low end device. In which case, I can see Switch current being discounted and remaining viable on the market for some time after Switch 2, and building a far higher sales volume than people might expect. This is how smart devices outlast new generations, sometimes several new generations. And I suspect Nintendo is going to make a go at this model given the Switch's architecture and Nintendo's tendency for innovation.

So in short, can Switch sell 150 million? I'm not sure if it will, but I think it remains one of the possible outcomes. It depends on market and Nintendo's decisions on the successor and continued support for (lets call it) Switch gen 1.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

The Fury said:
Add average Nintendo home console and DS numbers together, what's the total? That is the market here, not just home consoles. Switch is a replacement for both so it's hitting both markets. That's how much it will sell.

You're joking right. You realise that plenty of people buy both. It is not that simple at all.



No. Around 110 million or 120 million is most likely. 0% chance of 150 million.



kirby007 said:

350m+

edit :

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/238573/the-reason-the-switch-is-barely-starting-and-sales-will-explode-next-few-years-250m-ltd/

You never beat the magic of John Lucas, although it is a good try.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

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The short answer is yes, Switch will surpass 150m.  Here is the longer answer I gave a couple of years ago.
https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/234359/prediction-the-switch-will-become-the-best-selling-console-yet/

I've been told by many people that this can't possibly happen, but the counter arguments tend to go like this:  "A Nintendo system can't sell that much because Nintendo."  or "Switch can't outsell the PS2 because PS2".  The arguments are just based on a person's gut bias instead of actual reasoning.  Occasionally, someone presents data, but data can't give an accurate prediction until after a console is past its peak.  Switch is not yet past it's peak, so data is only of limited use right now.  Rol is the only other person I've heard actually try to use some other method like business strategy, and I believe he thinks Switch is going to sell 150m+.



pikashoe said:
The Fury said:
Add average Nintendo home console and DS numbers together, what's the total? That is the market here, not just home consoles. Switch is a replacement for both so it's hitting both markets. That's how much it will sell.

You're joking right. You realise that plenty of people buy both. It is not that simple at all.

Nintendo have released the replacement for the DS and it's called the Switch... no wait, that's the home console. Wait, Pokemon main line title was on the Switch, not DS. But wait, their mainline Zelda title was also on the Switch.

Switch is a replacement for both markets. Add them up.



Hmm, pie.

Well, in 2022 a small studio under Nintendos wigs releases Ultimate BagBeasts Collector, a game which totally explodes and leads to a massive resurgence of sales, further increased by the release of the model Switch Color.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Thinking 130m about now.



The Fury said:
pikashoe said:

You're joking right. You realise that plenty of people buy both. It is not that simple at all.

Nintendo have released the replacement for the DS and it's called the Switch... no wait, that's the home console. Wait, Pokemon main line title was on the Switch, not DS. But wait, their mainline Zelda title was also on the Switch.

Switch is a replacement for both markets. Add them up.

I feel like you're tolling, but I'm not 100% sure.