Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Slimebeast said:

But you can't trust the polls. Remember 2016? Hillary lead nearly every poll and yet Trump shocked the nation and won.

How long will this myth be perpetuated?

By the time of the election, Hillary was only leading nationally by about 2-3%. And guess what, that's also by how much she won the popular vote. And bar one, all of the swing states that Trump won he was also very competitive or even straight-up leading in those states

Biden's lead over Trump is very different to the one of Hillary had over Trump. Not only is it larger in general, Trump is being decisively beaten in a number of states he carried 4 years ago.

Also, trump retracting ads from swing states is never a good sign: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_l5WSKGlbVg

People are very results oriented. They tend to focus on correct and incorrect rather than how correct one was or why. 

It's kind of like a coworker who used to argue that Eli Manning was better than Peyton Manning because he had more superbowl wins (before Peyton won his second which was actually won despite his terrible play).

The polls in Texas actually were further off than the polls in Pennsylvania. Yet, nobody really cared because the end result was correct. 

The polling data was undeniably wrong in the rust belt in 2016, but that doesn't mean polls in 2020 become completely worthless. We have to look at why they were wrong. And we have a pretty good idea. Lots of undecided voters, bad last minute news for Clinton, higher turnout among non-college educated whites, and good old fashioned margin of error. Looking at these factors we can tell that a similar error in 2020 is pretty unlikely, since pollsters have adjusted their models, Trump is not winning by as much among whites without degrees, and voters seem much more likely to have locked in their votes. 

To the extent that polling numbers are off, it's more likely to be due to mail in voting. That's not to imply anything nefarious will go on, but it could mean turnout numbers will be wrong. This could be in the favor of Biden if greater awareness, use, and accessibility of mail in ballots leads to more voters. It could also cut the other way. If a large number of mail in votes are not counted due to being filled out or mailed improperly, it could help Trump.

There is also the issue of ballots being counted in time. Democrats are pushing to extend the amount of time (which seems logical in light of a global pandemic) whereas Republicans are trying to deny that. 



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Only one new set of polls today, but it's a big one.
Washingtonpost (rated A+) released a polls showing, under two different turnout models, a 6 or 10 point lead for Biden. 6 with third parties, 10 without it.

That's pretty substantial, and while some polls have showed that kind of a lead, none of them have been from sources this big. Also worth noting is that when third parties are incorporated, 99% of voters had picked a candidate. That's insane. This time last year around 10% of voters were still undecided. If this is accurate, then the race is less volatile, as voters would have to actually switch over. Maybe some Jorgenson voters could be swayed over, (third parties tend to fizzle as the election comes closer), but winning Biden voters over seems unlikely at this point.

Top rated pollsters are disagreeing though, not so much on the national level but on a state level. What is interesting is the difference between registered voter polls and likely voters polls. Some polls seem to be predicting that Trump will have significantly higher turnout that Biden. For instance, Monmouth's last poll of Florida has Biden at a 1% lead among registered voters but at a 4% deficit among likely voters. Wapo on the other hand has a 5% lead among registered voters and a 4% lead among likely voters. Marist shows a 1% lead for Trump among registered voters, but shows it even among likely voters.

Depending on how each candidate can do at getting their base out to the ballot box, or the mailbox as the case may be, can be the difference between a very close race, and a landslide victory. And... this is probably where money comes in.

In today's environment, I don't think money is going to change the minds of voters. If you put me in a room and showed me Trump ads for 24 straight hours, I would not vote for Trump. I'm sure most of his supporters would say the same in reverse. But, could ads convince someone who supported a candidate but not enough to get off of their ass to actually get off of their ass? Yeah. I think they could.

Bottom line though is that while those who follow politics have been saying for months the race would tighten up... that doesn't seem to be happening. And, the election isn't coming in a month, the election is happening right now, with ballots already being mailed in. If the race is actually this close on election day, then even assuming that the national results are as far off as 2016, Biden wins the national vote by 3 times more than Hillary does. It's hard to see that happening without the states Trump won by less than 1% flipping, which would lead to a loss.



PAOerfulone said:
When is the 1st Presidential Debate supposed to be?

I will try to catch it live although I'm a few hours ahead, I'm really curious to see the debate of the ancient elderly. Gosh, US deserved something better than this. 



Sienna/NYTimes comes to a similar conclusion as Washington Post, and has Biden at an 8 point lead. The times however shows much fewer undecided voters, and much less third party support. That would give Trump more of an ability to catch up.

In statewide polls, TIPP has Biden up by 5 in Pennsylvania, slightly above other polls. Marist has him up by 10 in Wisconsin, and 8 in Michigan. If true, no bueno for Trump.

The center for American Greatness has Biden up by 1 in Nevada. I'll let you decide for yourselves how much credence you want to give them.

Biden continues to do well in the states that were within 1% in 2016 and will flip the election if Biden wins them and in the national average.

Also, a poll conducted in California shows that Biden is up by 34% there. So, if anyone thought that Trump would win in California... probably not.

Last edited by JWeinCom - on 28 September 2020

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Slimebeast said:

But you can't trust the polls. Remember 2016? Hillary lead nearly every poll and yet Trump shocked the nation and won.

How long will this myth be perpetuated?

By the time of the election, Hillary was only leading nationally by about 2-3%. And guess what, that's also by how much she won the popular vote. And bar one, all of the swing states that Trump won he was also very competitive or even straight-up leading in those states

Biden's lead over Trump is very different to the one of Hillary had over Trump. Not only is it larger in general, Trump is being decisively beaten in a number of states he carried 4 years ago.

Also, trump retracting ads from swing states is never a good sign: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_l5WSKGlbVg

About time someone else pointed this out. The polls at the tail end of the election had Trump very much within the margin of error in virtually all of the tossup states and Hillary's national lead dwindling to a 2-3 point lead, also within the margin of error which, SPOILER: she won the popular vote by.

Not so this time around. He's losing fairly comfortably in all the tossup states and by 7% to Biden this time around nationally. The current polls paint a VERY different picture to the ones at the end of the 2016 election, so all this "TROLOL, the polls were way wrong in 2016" diatribe is not only way off, it's comparing apples to oranges. I'd be somewhat shocked if Florida went Trump after he effectively crashed their hospital system with Covid cases, it was he who told them to continue their business in the middle of a pandemic after all. In fact, he said it affects virtually nobody.

Oh and in the latest Trump bombshell, his tax returns have finally been revealed. To no one's shock, he's a tax-evading fraud with years of losses.

Last edited by KManX89 - on 28 September 2020

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I agree that the polling is different from 2016. The only factors that *might* give Trump an advantage are the ongoing pandemic (reportedly democrats are more cautious and might avoid going to the voting station) and the republicans trying to invalidate vote by mail (again, democrats are reported to use that more).



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KManX89 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

How long will this myth be perpetuated?

By the time of the election, Hillary was only leading nationally by about 2-3%. And guess what, that's also by how much she won the popular vote. And bar one, all of the swing states that Trump won he was also very competitive or even straight-up leading in those states

Biden's lead over Trump is very different to the one of Hillary had over Trump. Not only is it larger in general, Trump is being decisively beaten in a number of states he carried 4 years ago.

Also, trump retracting ads from swing states is never a good sign: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_l5WSKGlbVg

About time someone else pointed this out. The polls at the tail end of the election had Trump very much within the margin of error in virtually all of the tossup states and Hillary's national lead dwindling to a 2-3 point lead, also within the margin of error which, SPOILER: she won the popular vote by.

Not so this time around. He's losing fairly comfortably in all the tossup states and by 7% to Biden this time around nationally. The current polls paint a VERY different picture to the ones at the end of the 2016 election, so all this "TROLOL, the polls were way wrong in 2016" diatribe is not only way off, it's comparing apples to oranges. I'd be somewhat shocked if Florida went Trump after he effectively crashed their hospital system with Covid cases, it was he who told them to continue their business in the middle of a pandemic after all. In fact, he said it affects virtually nobody.

Oh and in the latest Trump bombshell, his tax returns have finally been revealed. To no one's shock, he's a tax-evading fraud with years of losses.

Lol, only $750 in taxes per year in 2016 and 2017.

On the other hand, $70k for hair salon expenses...

And he's saying he didn't release the tax returns for all this time because he's under audit, same excuse he used almost 4 years ago. He doesn't seem to understand that he's not helping his case with this. People are being investigated for roughly one year for a big tax offense, so imagine how colossal the tax evasion would need to be to be investigated 4 years straight...

Just to come back to the election itself, looks like it's increasingly likely that the democrats will also flip the senate.

While the Republicans will flip Alabama as was widely expected, they are losing several other states: Colorado, Maine, North Carolina and the special election in Arizona are all likely getting flipped over to Democrats, with Iowa, Georgia (the regular election, not the special) and Montana all still being in tossup territory. And while Montana and Georgia still titling towards Republicans, the same ain't true for Iowa anymore.

This would result in at best a 50-50 split for the Republicans, and at worst they could lose up to 6 states in total, which would be a catastrophic outcome for the GOP.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 28 September 2020

@SpokenTruth : You can add Kamala Harris as Biden's VP pick in the OP. Looks a bit empty without it...

Here's a little résumée of what Trump did so far during his presidency:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NX-DdOUlcqs&pp=wgIECgIIAQ==

Funny how things go there...

Edit: And this one here too, comparing his promises to his actions:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jdH8ak294M

You're welcome!

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 28 September 2020

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Just to come back to the election itself, looks like it's increasingly likely that the democrats will also flip the senate.

While the Republicans will flip Alabama as was widely expected, they are losing several other states: Colorado, Maine, North Carolina and the special election in Arizona are all likely getting flipped over to Democrats, with Iowa, Georgia (the regular election, not the special) and Montana all still being in tossup territory. And while Montana and Georgia still titling towards Republicans, the same ain't true for Iowa anymore.

This would result in at best a 50-50 split for the Republicans, and at worst they could lose up to 6 states in total, which would be a catastrophic outcome for the GOP.

Lindsey Graham in South Carolina is also neck and neck with his Democratic challenger and is supposedly getting greatly outfunded by him.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/518500-graham-neck-and-neck-with-challenger-in-south-carolina-senate-race-poll



A few interesting polls...

Again from our friends at Trafalgar, the ones who's claim to fame is predicting Trump wins it Pennsylvania and Michigan. They have Biden up by 3 in Wisconsin. If you're still holding on to the polls are biased against Trump theory, this one definitely wasn't in 2016, and it's still showing a better picture for Biden.

Interesting poll in Alaska, which has Trump up by only 1. If Alaska is close, that indicates a landslide Biden victory. But while the pollster is above average, it is funded by a super pac supporting the democratic/independent candidate for the Senate race. So, grain of salt. 

The biggest poll is the NYTimes/Sienna College poll showing Biden up by 9 in Pennsylvania. If this is the case then election over. For comparison they had Clinton up by 7 last time, so they did indeed vastly overrate her in that state. But, even if we assume they did not correct their models at all, this shift would take the state.

The thing to note here is that whether you take a pro-Trump poll like the Trafalgar one mentioned earlier, or a pro Clinton poll, they're both moving in unison, and both show a shift in rust belt states that would lead to a Trump loss.

In other maybe interesting news, Public Policy has a tie in Texas. 

In Illinois, a poll has Biden up by 13. This would actually be down from what Clinton won by in 2016 (17). So, that'd be bad for Biden. But, it's not a high rated pollster. The only reason it's interesting is that this is literally the only poll that has been done in Illinois this cycle according to fivethirtyeight. Illinois is considered a really safe state, so not a lot of data coming out of there. 

Sienna/Times has Biden up by seven in Nebraska's 2nd. This is significant because in a scenario where Trump wins Pennsylvania/Florida, and all of the toss up states, Biden needs both of the one electoral vote districts to win. Also, Trump won this by about 2 in 2016, so a 9 point swing is notable. That's probably not super reliable since there are few polls there, but it's consistent with what we're seeing in other places.

Lastly, Monmouth is showing a 5% lead for Biden nationwide with third parties, which is consistent with the Washington Post, and slightly less than the Times.

Edit: And another top rated poll, ABC Washington Post, shows Biden with a 9 point lead in Pennsylvania. No data on how good they were specifically in the 2016 race. 

This poll however is actually a lot worse for Trump than the Sienna poll. Because according to this poll, Biden is up by 54-45. That means there is a mere 1% of likely voters who have not chosen a candidate, which would mean a comeback, assuming the poll's accuracy, would require Trump to win over about 10% of Biden's support. That's a very tall task when the election has actually started.

On the other hand, the Center for American Greatness has released a poll showing Biden up by 2% in Wisconsin. This is the same source that funds Rasmussen, which has a consistently pro-republican lean, so decide for yourself how to consider that. The pollster has a C rating from fivethirtyeight.

Pennsylvania is probably the most important state in the election. If these polls are even as close as they were in 2016, then it's on to 46.

Last edited by JWeinCom - on 29 September 2020