One last update I guess before the debates.
American Greatness has Biden up by 3 in Florida. Normally when you click on a poll on fivethirtyeight it links you to their methodology. When you click on these, it takes you to a pro-Trump press release... so, big grain of sale.
Quinnipac, which is pretty good, and Civiqs, which is ok, have Biden up by 3 in Georgia.
University of Mass. has three interesting polls. First off, they show Donald Trump up by about 3.5 in Texas. Some polls show it even, but on balance, it seems like Texas going blue is a bit of a pipe dream. Although, polls did underestimate Clinton by 3 points, so not entirely out of the question.
In NC, they have a tossup.
New Hampshire is probably the most interesting of the polls. While it didn't get much attention, this was actually the closest state in 2016. It slipped under the radar because it went the way people expected, but Clinton only won by .3%. Despite that, there have been surprisingly few polls in the state. Which is kind of odd because a win in Pennsylvania plus New Hampshire (and all the toss up states) is one of Trump's most viable paths to victory.
At any rate, they have Biden up by 8 in the state. If this is true, it would be a pretty significant shift... but it would match the shifts in Ohio, Iowa, and Pennsylvania. So, either polls are getting much worse in unison, or the race is moving considerably in that direction.
Also, they found that Krispy Creme has an 83% approval rate. See, Democrats and Rebublicans can agree on something.
As for the debates... I don't see it changing things much. I think people will mostly see what they want to see via the power of confirmation bias. If Biden legitimately thought it was 1985 and fell asleep during the debate, and Trump said starting throwing the N word about, I don't think anyone would change their mind. So, I expect the polls to remain more or less constant. If anything, the tax stuff will be more of a factor.