Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread

One last update I guess before the debates.

American Greatness has Biden up by 3 in Florida. Normally when you click on a poll on fivethirtyeight it links you to their methodology. When you click on these, it takes you to a pro-Trump press release... so, big grain of sale.

Quinnipac, which is pretty good, and Civiqs, which is ok, have Biden up by 3 in Georgia.

University of Mass. has three interesting polls. First off, they show Donald Trump up by about 3.5 in Texas. Some polls show it even, but on balance, it seems like Texas going blue is a bit of a pipe dream. Although, polls did underestimate Clinton by 3 points, so not entirely out of the question.
In NC, they have a tossup.
New Hampshire is probably the most interesting of the polls. While it didn't get much attention, this was actually the closest state in 2016. It slipped under the radar because it went the way people expected, but Clinton only won by .3%. Despite that, there have been surprisingly few polls in the state. Which is kind of odd because a win in Pennsylvania plus New Hampshire (and all the toss up states) is one of Trump's most viable paths to victory.

At any rate, they have Biden up by 8 in the state. If this is true, it would be a pretty significant shift... but it would match the shifts in Ohio, Iowa, and Pennsylvania. So, either polls are getting much worse in unison, or the race is moving considerably in that direction.

Also, they found that Krispy Creme has an 83% approval rate. See, Democrats and Rebublicans can agree on something.



As for the debates... I don't see it changing things much. I think people will mostly see what they want to see via the power of confirmation bias. If Biden legitimately thought it was 1985 and fell asleep during the debate, and Trump said starting throwing the N word about, I don't think anyone would change their mind. So, I expect the polls to remain more or less constant. If anything, the tax stuff will be more of a factor.



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why are they even bothering with debates? It's just going to be 4 hours of 4 candidates explaining with eloquence and dignity what their platform is and what their stance is on various situations, followed by 1 hour of trump rambling on and never completing a single sentence, sounding like iPhone auto-complete wrote his script.



I only watched snippets of them, but was Trump this much of a raving bully during the 2016 debates? Incessant interruptions and lots of personal attacks. Biden did a decent job of deflecting his aggression rather than rising to it. His speaking could have been a lot better, but it was interesting watching Joe focus on the viewers while Don focused on Joe and Chris. They REALLY need to turn off the non-speaker's mic in the following debates. What a mess...



The 2016 debates were more cohesive than whatever that was.



Trump won this debate easily. Joe Biden was rattled and crying for his mommy.



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Biden easily won this debate, Trump had no way to argue actual points, just lob personal attacks at Biden's family. Oh and Trump refused to condemn white supremacy groups, lets not forget that priceless moment in the debate, that alone hands the victory to Biden.



Of all the debates I've ever seen, that one was the most recent.

Don't think anyone will be changing their mind based on that. I thought Trump was awful, but he was Trump. If you're supporting him at this point, that's the kind of thing you like or at least tolerate.

Biden did ok, but sometimes allowed Trump to bully him. I would think the constant arguing with the moderator would be a bad thing... but again, this is Trump.

I don't think Biden said anything that would lend credence to the Biden is diminished narrative. It's a little silly I should have to say it, but at all times he seemed to have a full grasp on what was being discussed. They both fumbled over words at time, but that's what happens when you're publicly speaking without a script.

The most clipworthy moment was probably Trump's response to white supremacists. When asked to do so, he danced around the issue and ranted about Antifa. When finally pinned down he said "stand down and stand by". Which is probably the most fucking horrifying response he could have given. Intentionally or not, it came off as an order. But, again, that's Trump. If you're with him so far, you either support that sort of thing, or at least it's not a dealbreaker.

Ultimately, I think this is a win for Biden, simply because he's ahead already, and nothing that happened will change the status quo.



Biden didn't do great, but Trump's last 20-30 minutes was a total disaster. He wasn't bad to start but the white supremacy moment probably blew his presidency



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

Snoopy said:
Trump won this debate easily. Joe Biden was rattled and crying for his mommy.

NobleTeam360 said:
Biden easily won this debate, Trump had no way to argue actual points, just lob personal attacks at Biden's family. Oh and Trump refused to condemn white supremacy groups, lets not forget that priceless moment in the debate, that alone hands the victory to Biden.

A perfect illustration of how pointless debates are.  Everybody hears and sees what they want to hear.



NobleTeam360 said:
Biden easily won this debate, Trump had no way to argue actual points, just lob personal attacks at Biden's family. Oh and Trump refused to condemn white supremacy groups, lets not forget that priceless moment in the debate, that alone hands the victory to Biden.

Well, not for people who support white supremacy.