The demand from consumers is natural for a new home console from one of the big 3. Once all the huge Nintendo fans have bought one, I think sales will be quite poor, and that's when my prediction will start to come into effect. I don't think it'll grab the casuals lie the Wii did

That's not a fact...

I think the importance of that kind of casual gamer for the Wii is overstated. Yes, millions of people bought the Wii who fit that definition, but a lot of the fanbase was the same "middlecore" audience the PS2 had. Hence, why games like Mario Kart Wii and NSMBWii sold so well. It couldn't have been just Nintendo die-hards; that group failed to get the GameCube much above 20 million.

I believe that Nintendo's Wii-based audience alone can't get them to their Wii heights, but they seem to be making efforts in other areas. For example, their publishing hardcore games like Ninja Gaiden 3 and Bayonetta 2. If they keep that up, they can capture some of the PS3/360 audience the same way the 360 captured a lot of the PS2's audience. That might not add up to 100 million Wii U's getting sold, but 100 million strikes me as far more likely than 40 million.

I work retail and no exactly how insane pre-orders are right now.

And I assure you that you couldnt be more wrong

I think it will do 70 million at least. I think they will cut the price to $250 and $300 once the PS4 or the 720 arrive to the market and cut to $200 and $250 2 years after that. If they put the right software on it like NSMB U, Wii Fit U, Mario Kart U, Animal Crossing U, Smash Brothers U, an epic legend of zelda game and some good third party games and it can reach the $200 pricepoint at least 3-4 years after launch, I can see it doing 75-85 millions lifetime.

I think the Wii U will be the bestseller among the next gen, unless Microsoft or Sony has something up their sleeves beside Kinect 2/Move 2 and better graphics.

At the moment it seems that the Wii U already got Japan (with Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter, Mario, etc.) even before Xbox8 and PS4 arrive.

So I bet 70-80 Millions worldwide.

For Sony. This company is in a big financial crisis since six years that got worse from year to year. Sony could possible collapse in the next 1-3 years and the playstation brand will be history. If this scenario becomes reality the Wii U could reach 90-100 Mio.

Ofcourse it's getting high pre-orders, it's a next-gen home consoles from Nintendo and Nintendo has millions of fans. Once all these fans have bought it though, I can't seeing it selling much more. As I said to superchunk, I don't think it'll have support from the millions of casuals who bought the Wii

Sure, but the odds are heavily against it selling that little.  Heavily against it.

I look forward to reading your write up as to why you think it'll sell so little.

No way, not in this day and age, with all three consoles totaling over 200m units sold WW (that's not even factoring in the handhelds, which practically doubles that figure) over the past generation.

With the Wii U most likely being the cheapest of the three consoles for the duration of its life, coupled with the push towards integrating home entertainment features like TVii, there's no way this thing does under 60 mil WW, and that's on the extremely conservative side. I firmly feel Wii U will safely do at least 80 mil WW.

IF PS4 and 720 arrive at similar price points the WiiU will drop off. core gamers will likly choose PS4 and 720, you can quote me this next year. WiiU is actually lanching more expensive than the orig 360. it doesnt have the family friendly price tag as Wii did so il go with 40 - 50 million