Prediction: Wii U will sell under 40 million units

[Salnax]

kitler53 said:

Salnax said:
I'd like to see why. So far, they seem to be making the right moves.

i'm basing it off of ancedocal evidence to be sure.  ..but what i'm not seeing is interest in the wii U for the "causuals" i know in my life.  "casual" in the context of this specific post means this:  owns a wii (and maybe a DS) but never bought any other video game system before.  i'm seeing no interest in anything gaming from them anymore. 

people like my mother who got a wii for wii fit but has since stopped playing.  i'm really really quite sure she's not coming back to gaming.  i just have a feeling that this (while ancedocal for sure) is going to the story for a lot of people the previously got a wii.

i don't think 40M is the right number...but a decent contraction from wii's numbers is my opinion.

I think the importance of that kind of casual gamer for the Wii is overstated. Yes, millions of people bought the Wii who fit that definition, but a lot of the fanbase was the same "middlecore" audience the PS2 had. Hence, why games like Mario Kart Wii and NSMBWii sold so well. It couldn't have been just Nintendo die-hards; that group failed to get the GameCube much above 20 million.

I believe that Nintendo's Wii-based audience alone can't get them to their Wii heights, but they seem to be making efforts in other areas. For example, their publishing hardcore games like Ninja Gaiden 3 and Bayonetta 2. If they keep that up, they can capture some of the PS3/360 audience the same way the 360 captured a lot of the PS2's audience. That might not add up to 100 million Wii U's getting sold, but 100 million strikes me as far more likely than 40 million.