Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: The PS Vita will sell under 20m units

We all know how poorly the PS Vita is doing sales-wise at the moment, so I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict that it will sell under 20m units in lifetime sales. 'Lifetime sales' is quite a loose term; so let's just say that I think it'll sell under 20m units in the next 10 years.

My prediction is based of the fact that I think the PS Vita will struggle to find relevance in today's market, as the boundary between the smartphone market and the handheld gaming market becomes more occluded by the day. Due to this I think it'll continue to struggle sales-wise and it will subsequently be discontinued in the not-so-distant future.

I'll bump this thread on 30th September 2022. In the meantime, do you agree? Do you disagree? If so, why?



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I disagree, but not by much. I think it will get Game Cube sales numbers. Why 2022?

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It's already over 9000 so its doing ok

On a more serious note: it depends on many factors. I wonder how hard Sony will push it next year. If they give it a second chance as they did with the PSP/3, I could see it selling anywhere from 30-50 million. If they dont.... well it could always cap out at 10 million.

At the moment its not a struggle just for instal base, but for software sales to. Even tough there is absolutely ZERO piracy on it, the attach ratio is still incredibly small. Never the less I would hold out for a more reliable prediction at least a year, or even better, until we pass the launch the PS4.

I'm not the biggest Vita fan, but I have an iota of confidence in it. Some of the upcoming games will do it a lot of good in the west, and Sony is going to stick with this system at least through 2013. So I'm guessing it'll surpass 20 million, albeit uncomfortably slowly.

Love and tolerate.

When Sony stops (strongly) supporting the PS3 and move to the PS4 the Vita will start selling more, i think 35/40 million is a little more realistic. And factors as 3DS exclusives and PS4 pricing will also have a say in Vita's final numbers.

''Life is a hideous thing''

Brave.

IF it has a dire holiday then your guess will be realistic. If it somehow has a decent Xmas then you will be under by some distance. Pretty clear it won't get anywhere near PSP though. Half of the PSP sales or 35m seems like a pipe dream right now.



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Disagree.

I don't think it'll do nearly as well as the PSP, but it just needs big sellers to come out for it fairly regularly and it'll do well, which has already started to a certain extent with Uncharted, (which was great, and sells well) AC (which looks awesome), COD (which granted, will most likely be absolute shit, but if it isn't, will do well) Killzone, Persona 4, LBPV etc. Also, any new IP could be massive, and there is quite a few in the works. The line-up over the next year or so is looking quite promising, and if next years holiday line-up is also great then coupled in with a large price-cut it'll do brilliantly. I think we will probably see GTA and GT on the system at some point, which have a lot of sales potential, for hardware and software.

My prediction is 30-40M.



Busted said:
When Sony stops (strongly) supporting the PS3 and move to the PS4 the Vita will start selling more, i think 35/40 million is a little more realistic. And factors as 3DS exclusives and PS4 pricing will also have a say in Vita's final numbers.


Can you explain that for me please.



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It's currently selling marginally less than the Wii, so, it'll eventually sell 90M. Just like the Wii.

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I think ~45/50 million would be a more sensible estimate

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