Disagree.
I don't think it'll do nearly as well as the PSP, but it just needs big sellers to come out for it fairly regularly and it'll do well, which has already started to a certain extent with Uncharted, (which was great, and sells well) AC (which looks awesome), COD (which granted, will most likely be absolute shit, but if it isn't, will do well) Killzone, Persona 4, LBPV etc. Also, any new IP could be massive, and there is quite a few in the works. The line-up over the next year or so is looking quite promising, and if next years holiday line-up is also great then coupled in with a large price-cut it'll do brilliantly. I think we will probably see GTA and GT on the system at some point, which have a lot of sales potential, for hardware and software.
My prediction is 30-40M.
Essay Pro