This is pretty much what I was saying.

it will die way before 20m.

No 3rd party support, no major exclusives coming, no price cut. nothing.

Would the Assassin's Creed III: Liberation count as a major exclusive?  No 3rd party support sounds like an exaggeration.  There's always going to be support, and Sony has enough money left in them to keep it alive, especially if they start turning up profits again.  A price cut is also definitely going to happen eventually. 

So far, it's speculation those games will make Vita's hardware sales explode.

BTW... speaking of western game sales, the dreamcast had some number 1 games in NPD and several number 3 (since back then 3 was number 1 due to the ever present number 1 and 2 Pokémon Red and Blue - for more than 1 year). Crazy Taxi, NFL/NBA 2K, Sonic Adventure were all big hits. I know that because EGM posted sales charts back then) That too wasn't enough to save it.

Price cut is very necessary, imo. Believe it or not, I think it's coming this holiday.

Personally, I see two extreme paths the PS-Vita could take ...

1) Early in the new year Sony (possibly due to third party pressure) cuts the price of a PS-Vita to $200 with a memory card, sales increase, and the PS-Vita has lifetime sales in the 45 million range.

2) Sony holds off cutting the price of the PS-Vita until it is too late resulting in a significant decline in third party support, sales never recover, retailers reduce shelf space as much as possible, and Sony is forced to cut the PS-Vita's life short (after 4 years on the market) where it sold less than 20 million units in its lifetime.

Sony will likely act somewhere between these two extremes though.

for the states I could see Sony completely holding off and denying a price cut all the way up to the holidays and then bam 150dollars with a mem card and I dunno reality fighters or little deviants, it wouldn't surprise me them doing this to try and pop Nintendos hype bubble of the wii-u and make people stop and think for a minute before going to spend their money on that, would be great to see I know it would cost a fair amount of money per vita sold at their current rate to make the things, but if they could use it as a spanner to throw in the works of the next Nintendo home console it would line up nicely for the ps4 to roll up and dominate in homes again.

As for sales prediction, if they do nothing you could well be right MBP but I would love to see them go a bit console war-y again with it I miss fist fights over weather the SNES or Megadrive were better, gaming wars needs blood :D

"My prediction is based of the fact that I think the PS Vita will struggle to find relevance in today's market, as the boundary between the smartphone market and the handheld gaming market becomes more occluded by the day. Due to this I think it'll continue to struggle sales-wise and it will subsequently be discontinued in the not-so-distant future."

But the 3DS just broke records with Its sales. The Dedicated gaming market still exists, and it may have shrunk but I'd guess this gen total sales will end around 100-130m (PSV+3DS), which is still fairly big. The problem is Sony hasn't managed to convince many people to get a Vita over a 3DS. Never forget that Japanese gamers prefer handhelds over consoles.

This past week the Vita has recieved a massive marketing push in the UK, the new TV spots have aired on during the x-factor ( biggest audience you could want), so we'll see how much that will help when European HW sales get released.

Vita will pass 20m no question about it. They already talked about their 3 yr plan, & their will be price cuts, possibly redesign (already sexy though) to help along.

but If Sony wants to compete and help push Vita, it will need as many hats as possible. Sony would go hard w/a superslim PS3 16gb + Vita + LBP 2 for $399. While I do not mind a PS4, I don't think Sony needs it right now, so this is a viable force. nintendo has console edge in terms of horsepower, but Sony has more power + independence in portability with Vita.

If Sony pulls some gangsta shit like that, they could win me back. But they must legitimately push the Vita + PS3, not some "I can do this feature also" distraction bullsht that most devs won't utilize.

Well at least wait for Sony's top 2 biggest IPs Gran Turismo & God of War and for a new GTA game to make their appearances before coming to such a pessimistic conclusion. I think the Vita will sell at least 50 million lifetime. It just needs an attractive price point and more compelling big and great games released, it's a shame Uncharted: Golden Abyss and Resistance : Burning Skies sucked so bad but hopefully with games like the great LittleBigPlanet Vita and the upcoming PASBR, Assassins Creed 3: Liberation, Killzone, Bioshock and Call of Duty (though this will 100% suck and be a flop) the Vita has a chance to be successful. Personally I will never buy a Vita even if another masterpiece in the God of War series releases on it, I'd borrow one to play it but I hate handheld gaming so nothing Sony do can make me part with my money.

People don't even know what a Vita is at this point. Less than 20 million is possible, but once games like Call of Duty arrives along with more advertising, I'm fairly certain it will at least break the 30 million mark. And probably ten more.