Why? At its current rate it's very likely!

I agree, it will sell under 20m units.

At this pace, it will only beat the Dreamcast because it will be alive longer. It is most likely overtracked here and is not near the 3m mark yet. Unless sometime soon there will be some amazing system sellers, sales won't pick up and the Vita will have a very mediocre holiday season. Because there is still nothing substantial announced, any system seller is pure luck. Moreover, the more time it takes until something else is announced the less likely it is going to happen. I have a feeling this time will be here soon, the point of no return so to say. Especially when the supposed system seller that actually were there, didn't do much.

I'm no doomsayer, mind you, purely based on observation I just wouldn't bet any money on the thing.

Maybe it'll change after christmas, but I just don't see it.

Could be 10 million, could be a 100 million. The PS3 started pretty rocky yet look how that turned out. If Sony keeps pumping out great Vita games and markets them then great things for the Vita will happen.

As for attachment ratios, a lot of people download their games. Sadly we just don't know.

At its current rate, given holiday seasons giving it temporary boosts and the occasional game that is a system seller, it can easily push over 20m in 10 years.  Not only that, but when Sony does give the PS Vita a pricecut, there will be more people flocking towards the Vita as that is one of the main concerns right now.  The games library will definitely build itself over the years, and there are already some decent games on the Vita.  20m in 10 years would pretty much make the Vita one of the worst selling systems ever.

Refuse to cut its price is good? Why? To me it only shows they can't, since the system needs one.

Look at their forecast. They'll miss it. Badly. Twice. Most likely 3 times. Why do you think systems get discontinued?

Highly unlikely. That would require sub 20k sales on average every week. So far it's average weekly sales are 71k and it's slow time of the year sales are above 30k. First years are typically the hardest sell for a console and Vita is currently at its most expensive with the least amount of features. Next week PS Mobile is launching, cross buy is making it into the spotlight, and the system will receive more apps and firmware updates that will improve its use. Even if the holidays don't go well for Vita, it will still sell well above what it would take to reach 20 million in 10 years. If it stays at its current rate it will reach that in half the time.

Why this 10 year thing? If it continues to sell bad ( as in "at this rate") it won't be there in 10 years. That's the whole point.

It's selling worse ("current rate") than a system that hasn't reached 10 million.

Not saying that it'll do just 20 million, but the whole point is "at this rate" it's not going to get there

"At this rate" doesn't have to mean "if it maintains the current sales rate it is at this very moment."  It means the rate that we can currently perceive it going with what we know about the system so far (and what's coming out) in the context I'm using it.  The Vita hasn't been out for a year yet, and I would say usually sales are better in the middle of its life rather than its first year.  We know Call of Duty and Assassin's Creed is coming out on the Vita.  It should sell the Vita more systems temporarily at least.

If there was no such thing as holiday sales, then I'd agree with 20M units. But the fact of the matter is that sales will go up significantly during the end of the year, every year. I'd say that 30-40M units is a much more reasonable lifetime estimate, unless Sony is able to significantly cut the price in the near future. Then it could be even more.

I think this and next year holiday season will determinate the fate of the system. I don't have high hopes for the Vita sales this holiday (lack of games, the Wii U, the new PS3 model) so the rest of the year will be really bad imo. Now, Sony have one hole year to release more games and a possibly a price cut, if those things don't help the next year sales, then the Vita will probably not pass the 10M mark by the end of 2013.

There is still more time than just two holidays seasons, but if the Vita sales are bad then third parties will simple not care in the long run, the sales will need a massive boost for them to care enough to develop games for the Vita. My guess it's that the system will sell 30M (max 40M) during it's lifetime.