Highly unlikely. That would require sub 20k sales on average every week. So far it's average weekly sales are 71k and it's slow time of the year sales are above 30k. First years are typically the hardest sell for a console and Vita is currently at its most expensive with the least amount of features. Next week PS Mobile is launching, cross buy is making it into the spotlight, and the system will receive more apps and firmware updates that will improve its use. Even if the holidays don't go well for Vita, it will still sell well above what it would take to reach 20 million in 10 years. If it stays at its current rate it will reach that in half the time.
Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(