Well Pokemon for one.

Fire emblem awakening is confirmed over 2 mil before digital, and fates is so close it isn't even funny.

Persona 5 is at 1.4 before digital

Every DQ game ever sells like over 2 mil in Japan alone.

Both braverly default and second also beat 2 mil I think

All of these are vgchartz January numbers btw

An impossible number to achieve, not even going to get close

Mio is an official shorthand for million in germany, according to industry standardization DIN 5008. DIN is the german pendant to american standardization organizations like ANSI or NIST.

No way Jose

Drat, I forgot Pokemon. That surely beats 2M in every incarnation. Fire emblem awakening is indeed past 2M, Fates scratches the 2M. But it is also a combination with strategy, which is a market where turn-based works better. Persona is at 1.7M if you add PS3-sales. Dragon Quest XI is at 1.8M for 3DS and 1.4M for PS4. It has passed 2M if you count both together. Bravely Default is at 1.4M, I don't find data for second on VGC.

So, what does it say for Octopath? I think we can agree, it probably won't tap into the Pokemon-market. Fire Emblem with it's combination with strategy can go past 2M, but not by much. Octopath doesn't have that element. persona 5 one of the highest acclaimed turn-based RPGs of the last time is below 2M on two platforms. Counting digital it might beat 2M, but barely. So that leaves Dragon Quest, which in combiation is somewhere at 3M, not 6M. Maybe that can clear 6M including digital after the Switch release on 3 platforms. Octopath should manage that on one platform? Unlikely.

total crazy... i can see it pass 2 mill but just!

I made a bet saying octopath wouldn't outsell Persona 5, and considering I do not want to be wrong, I so no chance

Not likely at all. Would be honestly be insane and amazing if it gets 3 million.

Thx

And like I said in the OP: Totally crazy or crazy enough to work, so yeah, crazy anyway

That's quite unlikely. JRPGs that aren't Final Fantasy or Dragon Quest very rarely sell even close to that, and I doubt Octopath has the kind of mass appeal to reach sales like that. It's going to be very successful no question, but 3 million is the most I see it selling worldwide, and even that's being optimistic.