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Forums - Sales Discussion - July 2024 VGChartz Estimates Thread - Worldwide Estimates Out Now

After a pretty poor first half of the year nice to see a great month for the Xbox Series with it being up nearly 20% YoY and up compared to the same month for the Xbox One significantly. It's probably gonna be at least mostly back to normal for the next few months but it's still a positive sign. If a very American focused game like College Football 25 did this then it should get one hell of a spike the month GTA 6 comes out.

The PS5 had a good month but it's noteworthy that it seemed to benefit less from that game than the Xbox Series did and is still down significantly YoY and compared to the same month for the PS4. This is a bad sign for how it'll hold up the next couple months but it's still selling really well overall of course and Wukong should help it for August.

And the Switch held up better compared to the past few months due to the Mario film and TOTK boost wearing off by July but it still being down by nearly a full third shows again that the hardware really should get replaced soon.

Last edited by Norion - on 23 August 2024

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Norion said:

The PS5 had a good month but it's noteworthy that it seemed to benefit less from that game than the Xbox Series did and is still down significantly YoY and compared to the same month for the PS4. This is a bad sign for how it'll hold up the next couple months but it's still selling really well overall of course and Wukong should help it for August.

The thing for the PS5 is that yea it is down, yea it's trailing behind, but we know what the PS4 has going forward in terms of sales. It is at this time in it's 2017 year - it's peak year. The 2018 is one more strong year. PS5 should match those two very close, will probably be somewhat behind, but 1-2M for each of them is not much of a deficit. Then the PS4 shows really weak side. 2019 is 14M 2020 is 8M and it does only 3M after that. As of now most of the rumours points out to at least 2028 for next gen consoles, or at least PS6. So I assume even doing some 18-20 and the same 18-20M range next year (mostly because of the Pro model and GTA6), it's 2026 year should easily beat the 14M of PS4'2019. And surely it has to do more than 8M in 2027 and more than 3M after that. So the 3-4M in total deficit it can do for this and next year to PS4 I think is not enough to put it below the lifetime sales of the PS4 at the end. It's not so hard to beat the PS4 lifetime sales at this stage.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 23 August 2024

Link to the VGChartz article here.

PS5 vs Xbox Series X|S vs Switch 2024 Americas Sales Comparison Charts Through July

Here we see data representing the sales through to consumers and change in sales performance of the three current platforms (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S, and Nintendo Switch) and two legacy platforms (PlayStation 4 and Xbox One) over comparable periods for 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024. Also shown is the market share for each of the consoles over the same periods.

Year to Date Sales Comparison (Same Periods Covered)

Market Share (Same Periods Covered)

2021 – (January 2021 to July 2021)

2022 – (January 2022 to July 2022)

2023 – (January 2023 to July 2023)

2024 – (January 2024 to July 2024)

"Year to date" sales for 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 sales are shown in series at the top of the table and then just below a comparison of 2024 versus 2023 and 2024 versus 2022 is displayed.  This provides an easy-to-view summary of all the data.

Total Sales and Market Share for Each Year

Microsoft

  • Xbox Series X|S
    • 1.59 million units sold year-to-date
    • Down year-on-year 0.22 million units (-12.1%)

Nintendo

  • Nintendo Switch
    • 1.55 million units sold year-to-date
    • Down year-on-year 1.28 million units (-45.2%)

Sony

  • PlayStation 5
    • 2.91 million units sold year-to-date
    • Down year-on-year 0.60 million units (-17.1%)
  • PlayStation 4
    • 7,947 units sold year-to-date
    • Down year-on-year 44,007 (-84.7%)

Note: VGChartz 2024 estimates through June includes 31 weeks, while 2023, 2022, and 2021 estimates includes 30 weeks.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter, Bluesky, and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

XtremeBG said:
Norion said:

The PS5 had a good month but it's noteworthy that it seemed to benefit less from that game than the Xbox Series did and is still down significantly YoY and compared to the same month for the PS4. This is a bad sign for how it'll hold up the next couple months but it's still selling really well overall of course and Wukong should help it for August.

The thing for the PS5 is that yea it is down, yea it's trailing behind, but we know what the PS4 has going forward in terms of sales. It is at this time in it's 2017 year - it's peak year. The 2018 is one more strong year. PS5 should match those two very close, will probably be somewhat behind, but 1-2M for each of them is not much of a deficit. Then the PS4 shows really weak side. 2019 is 14M 2020 is 8M and it does only 3M after that. As of now most of the rumours points out to at least 2028 for next gen consoles, or at least PS6. So I assume even doing some 18-20 and the same 18-20M range next year (mostly because of the Pro model and GTA6), it's 2026 year should easily beat the 14M of PS4'2019. And surely it has to do more than 8M in 2027 and more than 3M after that. So the 3-4M in total deficit it can do for this and next year to PS4 I think is not enough to put it below the lifetime sales of the PS4 at the end. It's not so hard to beat the PS4 lifetime sales at this stage.

You're right that it won't be tough to beat the lifetime sales if it lasts an extra year. Sony would certainly prefer to not need to rely on that to make that happen though. I do think it has a shot of matching or even slightly exceeding the PS4's 2018 since the PS5 Pro being available for all of 2025 combined with it likely being the biggest year for gaming this decade will definitely push a significant amount of hardware. At the very least it'll for sure compare better to that year than it is to 2017.



At this point the gap between PS4 and PS5 will likely keep growing until GTA VI releases. After that Playstation could probably gain in on PS4 somewhat because launch aligned the PS4 lost most of its steam by 2026.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

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@trunkswd

Will you be able (and if so, how?) to track/estimate Chinese hardware sales for the PS5 for August? Since the alleged 'Wukong selling out PS5s in China" news lately?



Panicradio said:

@trunkswd

Will you be able (and if so, how?) to track/estimate Chinese hardware sales for the PS5 for August? Since the alleged 'Wukong selling out PS5s in China" news lately?

To be honest mainland Asia is one of the places we don't get much data on. But we will do the best with what data is available and with the reports the PS5 has been selling out in China. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter, Bluesky, and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:
Panicradio said:

@trunkswd

Will you be able (and if so, how?) to track/estimate Chinese hardware sales for the PS5 for August? Since the alleged 'Wukong selling out PS5s in China" news lately?

To be honest mainland Asia is one of the places we don't get much data on. But we will do the best with what data is available and with the reports the PS5 has been selling out in China.

Yes, I can imagine this ain't easy.

It's very interesting if the Chinese hardware sales are either in the low 10k'ish range, or maybe even on par with UK, Japan or even Europe.

Maybe there'll be a chance to pin down some estimations once all sources and even Sony will publish new data.

But thanks again for replying so fast, always appreciated! :)



Link to the VGChartz article here.

PS5 vs Xbox Series X|S vs Switch 2024 Worldwide Sales Comparison Charts Through July

Here we see data representing the sales through to consumers and change in sales performance of the three current platforms (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S, and Nintendo Switch) and two legacy platforms (PlayStation 4 and Xbox One) over comparable periods for 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024. Also shown is the market share for each of the consoles over the same periods.

Year to Date Sales Comparison (Same Periods Covered)

Market Share (Same Periods Covered)

2021 – (January 2021 to July 2021)

2022 – (January 2022 to July 2022)

2023 – (January 2023 to July 2023)

2024 – (January 2024 to July 2024)

"Year to date" sales for 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 sales are shown in series at the top of the table and then just below a comparison of 2024 versus 2023 and 2024 versus 2022 is displayed.  This provides an easy-to-view summary of all the data.

Total Sales and Market Share for Each Year

Microsoft

  • Xbox Series X|S
    • 2.42 million units sold year-to-date
    • Down year-on-year 0.68 million units (-22.0%)

Nintendo

  • Nintendo Switch
    • 5.32 million units sold year-to-date
    • Down year-on-year 2.92 million units (-35.4%)

Sony

  • PlayStation 5
    • 7.45 million units sold year-to-date
    • Down year-on-year 2.45 million units (-24.8%)
  • PlayStation 4
    • 34,828 units sold year-to-date
    • Down year-on-year 121,160 (-77.7%)

Note: VGChartz 2024 estimates through June includes 31 weeks, while 2023, 2022, and 2021 estimates includes 30 weeks.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter, Bluesky, and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Link to the VGChartz article here.

PS5 vs Xbox Series X|S vs Switch Launch Sales Comparison Through Month 45

This monthly series compares the aligned launch sales of the PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S, and Nintendo Switch.

It should be noted the Nintendo Switch and Xbox Series X|S had a worldwide launch, while the PlayStation 5 launch was split over the course of two weeks. Also, the Nintendo Switch launched in March 2017, while the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S launched during the holidays in November 2020.

PS5 Vs. Xbox Series X|S Vs. Switch Global:

  1. Switch: 71,073,888
  2. PS5: 60,163,605
  3. XSX|S: 29,636,792

Through the first 45 months available worldwide the Nintendo Switch is ahead of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S. The Switch is ahead of the PS5 by 10.91 million units and is 41.44 million units ahead of the Xbox Series X|S. The PS5 is ahead of the Xbox Series X|S by 30.53 million units.

The Switch has sold 71.06 million in 45 months worldwide, while the PS5 sold 60.16 million units and the Xbox Series X|S 29.64 million units.

Looking at the marketshare through 45 months, the Switch is in the lead. The Switch has a 44.2 percent marketshare, the PS5 sits at 37.4 percent, and the Xbox Series X|S at 18.4 percent.


PS5 Vs. Xbox Series X|S Vs. Switch US:

  1. Switch: 23,890,784
  2. PS5: 21,136,789
  3. XSX|S: 15,012,752

Through the first 45 months available in the US the Nintendo Switch is ahead of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S. The Switch is ahead of the PS5 by 2.75 million units and is 8.88 million units ahead of the Xbox Series X|S. The PS5 is ahead of the Xbox Series X|S by 6.12 million units.

The Switch has sold 23.98 million in 45 months in the US, while the PS5 sold 21.14 million units and the Xbox Series X|S 15.01 million units.

Looking at the marketshare through 45 months, the Switch currently leads. The Switch has a 39.8 percent marketshare, the PS5 sits at 35.2 percent, and the Xbox Series X|S at 25.0 percent.

PS5 Vs. Xbox Series X|S Vs. Switch Europe:

  1. PS5: 19,954,735
  2. Switch: 18,170,527
  3. XSX|S: 7,856,838

Through the first 45 months available in Europe the PlayStation 5 is ahead of the Nintendo Switch and Xbox Series X|S. The PS5 is ahead of the Switch by 1.87 million units and is 12.10 million units ahead of the Xbox Series X|S. The Switch is ahead of the Xbox Series X|S by 10.31 million units.

The PS5 has sold 19.95 million in 45 months in Europe, while the Switch sold 18.17 million units and the Xbox Series X|S 7.86 million units.

Looking at the marketshare through 45 months, the PlayStation 5 currently leads. The PS5 has a 43.4 percent marketshare, the Switch sits at 39.5 percent, and the Xbox Series X|S at 17.1 percent.

PS5 Vs. Xbox Series X|S Vs. Switch Japan:

  1. Switch: 16,420,703
  2. PS5: 5,907,063
  3. XSX|S: 621,726

Through the first 45 months available in Japan the Switch is ahead of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S by a wide margin. The Switch is ahead of the PS5 by 10.51 million units and is 15.80 million units ahead of the Xbox Series X|S. The PS5 is ahead of the Xbox Series X|S by 5.29 million units.

The Switch has sold 16.42 million units in 45 months in Japan, while the PS5 has sold 5.91 million units, and the Xbox Series X|S 0.62 million units.

Looking at the marketshare through 45 months, the Switch currently leads. The Switch has a 71.6 percent marketshare, the PS5 sits at 25.7 percent, and the Xbox Series X|S at 2.7 percent.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter, Bluesky, and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.