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Forums - Politics Discussion - 2024 US Presidential Election

Cyran said:
BFR said:

Cyran challenged me, and I replied. To each their own.

In less then a month we will find out who was right.  My bet on a smooth convention for the democrats base on how the last 48 has gone.

I agree with your first sentence, and the next DNC will be newsworthy, and epic. Can't wait. It all starts on Aug. 19

Last edited by BFR - on 22 July 2024

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BFR said:
sundin13 said:

...wtf?

Sun, are my questions incoherent to you?

Yes I find your questions incoherent, because it is relevant or related to anything posted in this thread. 

Being challenged has nothing to do with demographic information. It's a thread, a major point is to challenge ideas. 



BFR said:
Cyran said:

In order to prevent any publicity stunt my understanding is the plan is later this week to vote on the final rules which will include a virtual vote from delegates sometime in early august before the convention.  Which mean before the convention start the vote will already be done and the candidate chosen.  This process leaves very little room for any attempt at a publicity stunt.

I betting this vote going to go smoothly for Harris and by convention will be a celebration for her and a chance to make her case why the American people should vote for her over Donald Trump.  I think this going to go much smoother then you think.

Are you a girl? Rooting for Kamala? Or some young kid?



burninmylight said:
Chrkeller said:

Not convinced Harris can win. Middle America is key and the southeast. She being Cali, not sure she has appeal in key states like Georgia. She also has been blamed for the border which is a prime issue for many Americans.

But fingers crossed MAGA loses and goes away.

And I think Peter B is a great pic for running mate.  He is from Indiana and is ex-military.

Harris may not win, but Biden wasn't going to win. We could see his cognitive decline in real time, on top of the issues that were turning off voters like his support for Israel and the issue of the border that you mentioned (which somehow seems to be the biggest non-economic problem today).

Trump might be a crusty old bastard himself, but he at least doesn't look and sound like he could die at any moment from natural causes smack dab in the middle of a speech on stage.

100% agreed.  Biden was a guaranteed loss, it baffles me the DNC run with him in the 1st place, while Harris at least could win.  

It does seem as though people are quickly aligning behind her and perhaps she will re-energize people.  



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I'm relieved to see the enthusiasm and unity around the endorsement of Kamala Harris. It's been a tough few weeks for the American left and we certainly needed a break. I hope this enthusiasm is reflected in the polls going forward. Things remaining this close for the next few months would not be good for my health.



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I'm glad that Biden pulled out of the race, it was the only thing to do, and his mental faculties have been waning for years (I have no idea why a collective press were so against this notion until the debate with Trump, Biden has been spinning ever since he took office). However, I think Harris will also have a hard time, a somewhat young, black female. That's a tough sell across many demographics and in may territories.

In all of this, one thought that lingers in me is that I hope the democrats didn't toss Biden simply over worry over funding. There are few things more dangerous than making the right decision on the wrong grounds; he had to go because he was unfit (and has been for a long time) - not because sponsors made threats. If the latter is behind the decision, it sets a very poor precedent for the entire democratic process and underlying systems. It would clearly signal that, in actual fact, sponsors can dictate which candidates get through or not, which is a terrible foundation for any nation that dubs itself "free" and democratic. Lobbyist shenanigans are infamously present in the White House, but at least there's some discretion in it. Sponsors flagging down and forcing parties to discard candidates for monetary gain (or rather; to prevent monetary loss) would be an overt action of sabotage of several, base democratic principles. 

I'm watching the whole circus with a mix of interest and worry, and I can only empathize with you poor, reasonable souls who have to take part in this. Best of luck to you in the coming election.



According to 538 analysis Pennsylvania is the state most likely to be the tipping point. But other states are also heavily in play here: Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona. This is still based on Biden as candidate though, although with the strong partisan split I doubt that Harris will change much here. Maybe restore some confidence in democrat voters who lost it after seeing Biden decline. 538 has for the moment paused predictions, until the DNC makes their pick official and probably waits for a few polls with the new candidate, then they will restart calculations based on that. Will be interesting to see if Harris will shift the prediction a lot.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

Last edited by Mnementh - on 23 July 2024

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Mnementh said:

According to 538 analysis Pennsylvania is the state most likely to be the tipping point. But other states are also heavily in play here: Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona. This is still based on Biden as candidate though, although with the strong partisan split I doubt that Harris will change much here. Maybe restore some confidence in democrat voters who lost it after seeing Biden decline. 538 has for the moment paused predictions, until the DNC makes their pick official and probably waits for a few polls with the new candidate, then they will restart calculations based on that. Will be interesting to see if Harris will shift the prediction a lot.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

No idea if it would work, but Roy Cooper for VP?  Grab NC?  



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the-pi-guy said:
the-pi-guy said:

- Big claims need sources. If you're just here to flamebait nonsense, you will get kicked out.

LegitHyperbole said:

Obama's gonna pull someone out of the ether to replace Biden, doesn't look like it'd be Harris. Harris would fail against Trump. 

Thanks, I was able to update my rule list; even though I thought it went without saying.

Did I say something wrong? I didn't intend to. It seems to be Harris that gets the position, I was wrong. 



BFR said:

Cyran challenged me, and I replied. To each their own.

Resorting to weird unprovoked personal attacks just makes it look like you're not confident in letting your argument speak for itself.
Either way, forum posts are not the place that. If you're interested in their age/sex/location, contact them via DM.