Yes, I am advertising my own YouTube. But here I am discussing the Switch 2 announcement and how the Switch is on track to outsell the PS2. 

Looking at their forecast with net sales down 19.3%, operating profit down 24.4%, ordinary profit down 38.3%, net profit down 38.9% and software sales down 17.4%, it's a big financial decline. Despite this substantial decrease to still forecasting Switch shippings of 13.5m (only down 14% and therefore less than software) can only mean one or two things:

1. Switch will receive a price cut (at the very least one of the 3 models) and/or bundles
2. New Switch SKU model where the profit (margin) is lower than on the existing 3 SKU's.

The above is the logical analysis, otherwise, the forecasted numbers don't make sense.

Link to Financial Results, see page 8: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2024/240507_3e.pdf

I personally believe that if they do release a Tomodachi, Rhythm Heaven and other smaller IP's then the "system seller" would be Tomodachi due to nostalgia. Rhythm Heaven sells round 1-3M units at most, and those that are Rhythm Heaven enjoyers (like myself) have already gotten a Switch before.

I am a strong believer that Metroid Prime 4 will not be the cross-gen launch, because I think they will be releasing a new 3D Mario, and a few months later the new Mario Kart.

This 2nd half will probably be (my wish list, most realisitc to the top):
Mario Party iteration
Metroid Prime 4
DK (due to DKC in Universal & his presence in the movie)
Nintendo World Champions NES Deluxe
Tomodachi
Rhythm Heaven
Remake of Kid Icarus (1986)
Mario & Sonic @ Paris Olympics 2024
Pokémon (small game)
Nintendogs


Flip Studio (that's a want)
Art Academy (that's a want).

Agreed $300 OLED, $150 Lite, $250 Switch or bundles: MK8D+booster bundle, SMBW bundle, TotK bundle, Pikmin 4 bundle. Each bundle would be an additional $50. Maybe Nintendo implements both scenarios essentially slashing the price by $60.

With Successor Announcement in Nov 2024

I dont think they would bring in a new SKU model at such a late stage of the console's life. They have done it before with the GB bringing in the GBC, but that is a handheld and was due to the failure that was the Virtual Boy. If they bring in a new SKU, why would they replace it so soon with a brand new successor? I think option 1 is the most logical.

It’s not unheard of for Nintendo to release an entry level sku late in a consoles life, Game Boy Micro released after DS, Wii Mini released after Wii U and New 2DS XL released after Switch. They can coexist because the people looking to buy a budget version of an aging device are not the same people looking to buy a premium, new device.

Not really. It sold more than any other Switch game this quarter, including the ultimate evergeen, Mario Kart 8, and it's sold about as much in 5 months and 10 days as New Super Mario Bros U did in 3 and a half years.

I could be wrong, maybe I am mistaking my taste for reality. I just did not like Wonder that much. 

The last Rhythm Heaven title was the Wii version. Ever since, the IP has gained massive popularity globally through many content creators playing it, popular edited videos like the Smash one, and older players coming together. I can totally see Rhythm Heaven doing 10m unless it's full price which it would most likely be cuz Nintendo.

If I was Nintendo, I wouldn't launch the Switch 2 with 3D Mario. I would just repeat the Switch launch. Reveal Oct, presentation Jan, launch March. Highly anticipated cross-gen title (MP4) and new IPs at launch. Mario Kart in the summer, 3D Mario holidays. Smaller titles in between. 

13.5 million is certainly higher than I was projecting.

If Nintendo were to actually meet that projection, that would put the Switch at 154.32 million units lifetime by the end of next Fiscal Year - Putting it past the DS and knocking on the PS2's door. That would be amazing if it would do that... But I have my doubts.
Nintendo is just as prone to over-estimating their hardware projections as they are under-estimating. Yes, they ended up surpassing their 15 million projection of this last Fiscal Year... But that's also after they failed to meet their 21 million projection for FY23 and their 25.50 million projection of FY22.
In all 7 full Fiscal Years the Switch has been on the market, Nintendo has exceeded their forecast in four of them, while failing to meet their forecast in three of them. So it's just as, if not more, likely that they fail to meet that 13.5 million than they are to meet or exceed it.

So they will need to have a few tricks and plays up their sleeve to make that number happen. Luckily for them, they still have the most effective and obvious one in their hand - A price cut. The fact that they expect their profit and revenue to decrease as much as they do despite them also expecting hardware and software sales to maintain a healthy, slim decline... I'd say that is an indicator that price cuts, or at least much more frequent bundles, are what is being planned.
Another trick up their sleeve is also what they have planned for Switch this year in terms of games. After Luigi's Mansion 2 HD at the end of June, the rest of the 2024 lineup is a huge question mark. That June Direct is going to say a lot about what the final stretch of the Switch is going to look like. If they're expecting 13.5 million, then I'd assume they have a big surprise or two still in store for the Switch and plan to giving it a big sendoff before Switch 2.
Speaking of Switch 2, the eventual reveal of their successor will do more to effect the Switch's last legs than anything else. Furukawa himself has already said they plan to make an announcement for the successor during the fiscal year - That could range from a full blown reveal to just "The Successor is well into development, expect the full reveal for Holiday 2025, lol" drawing it out EVEN FURTHER. But rest assured, whenever they finally DO reveal Switch 2 - You can mark that date as the beginning of the end for Switch 1, and depending on where its sales are at that point, that will likely be the difference in whether or not it becomes the best-selling video game hardware of all-time.

That is very true but isn't that what the Switch Lite is, an entry level SKU (except it was just before its mid-life)? Unless you were thinking that they make a Switch DS? Or a Switch Apple TV?

And I do agree that they can co-exist together. I just think that the price drop is the more likely answer, though I did see a X post from President Shuntaro Furuwaka that says they will be announcing the Switch successor in this fiscal year, but he makes it sound like that the successor would release later into 2025, not earlier. Do we think they would push it back even further?
Another post from David Gibson said regarding an interview with President Furuwaka and he spoke of the successor in that "Switch next model is the appropriate way to describe it". So we may either see Switch 2 (a new console), or Switch Attach (an addition to the Switch family like the GBC to the GB).

Actually, it is Nintendo MO to release a new SKU this late in the life cycle. 

- New style NES releases two years after SNES released. 

- New style SNES released a year after N64 released

-Gameboy Light came out the same year the Gameboy Color did, so that's two revisions of a console 9 years after release.

- Gameboy Micro released a year after DS released

- DSi XL released a year before 3DS

- Wii mini released a few months after the Wii U came out

- New 2DS XL came out a few months after the Switch came out. 

Pretty much the only consoles they haven't done this for are the consoles that didn't sell very well.