javi741 said:
Yea I think Nintendo definitely overshipped in Q3 which lowered the shipments lower than expected relative to the sell-through numbers we were receiving from the U.S & Europe in Q4. I remember many of us after the big declines we saw in November 2023 when it came to sell through numbers from the U.S & Europe we were expecting Switch to be closer to 5M shipped rather than 6.9M it actually shipped, while the 6.9M was bigger than we thought relative to the sell through numbers we saw, it became clear that Nintendo overshipped that quarter after we saw similar declines I'm Q4 but much worse shipments numbers. So 2M+ non-holiday quarters are still certainly possible from here on out once supply and demand becomes leveled again |
Yeah the 6.9 million was far higher than i was expecting for Q3.
Shatts said:
The last Rhythm Heaven title was the Wii version. Ever since, the IP has gained massive popularity globally through many content creators playing it, popular edited videos like the Smash one, and older players coming together. I can totally see Rhythm Heaven doing 10m unless it's full price which it would most likely be cuz Nintendo. If I was Nintendo, I wouldn't launch the Switch 2 with 3D Mario. I would just repeat the Switch launch. Reveal Oct, presentation Jan, launch March. Highly anticipated cross-gen title (MP4) and new IPs at launch. Mario Kart in the summer, 3D Mario holidays. Smaller titles in between. |
Well, the last Rhythm Heaven was Rhythm Heaven Megamix, which only sold 1.03M, and the series as a whole has sold 5.18M over 4 games. The best selling is Rhythm Heaven for the NDS at 3.04M.
But I do agree that it has gained in popularity, I have certainly found it recently through a friend and I have enjoyed playing it (I have a really hard time with the Monkey Time level). Hmm considering that even SMBW is having a relatively hard time selling (compared to TotK, BotW, SMO, ACNH, and Pokémon at least), I think a Rhythm Heaven Switch would sell near 5-8M.
I feel like MP4 wont be cross-gen considering that the game is essentially completed, and that Metroid doesn't have a huge fanbase. The two latest Metroid games, Metroid Dread, and Metroid Prime Remastered sold 3.07M and 1.09M respectively. Metroid Dread is the best selling Metroid game of all time. Meaning that MP4 will sit near 10M at most. And wont be the reason people go purchase a new console worth $400. I will say the Metroid has gained in fans, otherwise the Switch sales would have been lower. and having it as a cross-gen launch will boost sales, but they wont be BotW sales. MP4 will at max reach 20M.
I do agree that Mario Kart will be in the Summer if the successor launches in March. We may be seeing a fall 2025 launch, with a Jan-Mar announcement.
Doctor_MG said:
Actually, it is Nintendo MO to release a new SKU this late in the life cycle. - New style NES releases two years after SNES released. - New style SNES released a year after N64 released -Gameboy Light came out the same year the Gameboy Color did, so that's two revisions of a console 9 years after release. - Gameboy Micro released a year after DS released - DSi XL released a year before 3DS - Wii mini released a few months after the Wii U came out - New 2DS XL came out a few months after the Switch came out. Pretty much the only consoles they haven't done this for are the consoles that didn't sell very well. |
Oooo. Look at that. I do appreciate the work put in to this. And ngl that is very amazing to hear that they have done this pretty much for every console.
I will give the new hardware revision some more consideration.
Would this be the rumored Youtube poll Nintendo Switch Attach? New revision in October 2024?
Thanks.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)
PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)
Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)
"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.
Sheesh, 7.3 million in FY10?
The PS2 had plenty of gas left in the tank before Sony decided to demolish the car.
Current Thread
Is Hardware Getting TOO Powerful?
Older Threads:
PlayStation/Xbox/Switch: 2022 Edition
PlayStation/Xbox/Switch Hardware Battle: 2021 Edition!
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2017 vs. 2018
PlayStation 4: 2015 vs. 2016 vs. 2017
PAOerfulone said: Sheesh, 7.3 million in FY10? The PS2 had plenty of gas left in the tank before Sony decided to demolish the car. |
How did they demolish the car? Sony produced the PS2 until January 2013, nearly 13 years after its release, that's the equivalent of Nintendo still producing the Switch in 2030. They gave it an extraordinarily long life.
Also going by these charts the PS4 had worse legs than the PS3, selling less in its 7th and 8th years, didn't realize that was the case.
curl-6 said:
How did they demolish the car? Sony produced the PS2 until January 2013, nearly 13 years after its release, that's the equivalent of Nintendo still producing the Switch in 2030. They gave it an extraordinarily long life. Also going by these charts the PS4 had worse legs than the PS3, selling less in its 7th and 8th years, didn't realize that was the case. |
Due to the shortages Sony killed production of the PS4 faster than they were probably wanting to, so they could focus on PS5 production.
VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube. Follow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.
Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown | Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.
trunkswd said:
Due to the shortages Sony killed production of the PS4 faster than they were probably wanting to, so they could focus on PS5 production. |
Oh I knew PS4 died a quick death after the PS5 arrived, I just wasn't aware that even with its higher baseline that it slipped below PS3 before it was even replaced.
curl-6 said:
Oh I knew PS4 died a quick death after the PS5 arrived, I just wasn't aware that even with its higher baseline that it slipped below PS3 before it was even replaced. |
Yeah the PS4 would have been one of the fastest killed off consoles when it comes to production if it wasn't for the fact the Xbox One production was killed at the end of 2020. PS4 production at least continued until early 2022. March 2022 quarter the last time they reported PS4 shipment figures. Though this page says June 30, 2022. https://sonyinteractive.com/en/our-company/business-data-sales/
VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube. Follow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.
Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown | Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.
PAOerfulone said: Sheesh, 7.3 million in FY10? The PS2 had plenty of gas left in the tank before Sony decided to demolish the car. |
It sold approximately another 14 million in FY 11,12 &13.
javi741 said: 13.5M seems extremely ambitious for the fiscal year tbh especially since Nintendo already acknowledged the successor is coming. And this quarter was a bit lower than expected in sales, didn't even crack 2M when I was expecting it to be closer to 2.5M. Maybe Nintendo did this aggressive forecast to not give a way a potential release window for Switch 2 cause if the forecast is too low it could imply the Switch successor will come this year. |
Perhaps Switch 2 is not coming this or next year, but early 2026. There are pretty much no ru.ours about Switch 2 yet. Usually there are some rumours a year in advance about the possible price, specs etc. Also a lot of games get announced for a new platform a year in advance. I guess we will see in a month if Switch 2 is happening soon. I expect Nintendo to announce it at least 9 months in advance. Considering they still think Switch will sell 13.5 million, they might not be targeting an early 2025 release, but perhaps early 2026.
Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar