By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Ships 141.32 Million Units as of March 2024

zorg1000 on 07 May 2024
Phenomajp13 said:

If Rol is right about it being another revision because permanent price cuts are unlikely then either a Lite revision or a model that resembles the Oled model but has a 7 inch LCD screen instead of Oled screen. Other than that, what in the world could Nintendo do?

Switch TV, micro-console similar in size to a Apple TV so no screen or battery, comes with a set of Joy-Cons and couch multiplayer focused game like Mario Kart Deluxe or Switch Sports, $149.99

Switch Mini, handheld only model even smaller and cheaper material than Switch Lite. Perhaps with a clamshell design so similar in size to 3DS XL, comes with a game in a handheld centric franchise like Pokemon or Animal Crossing, $149.99

Discontinue original Switch and Switch Lite models, cut OLED model to $299.99



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Around the Network
Shatts on 07 May 2024
Farsala said:

Basically Nintendo thinks 13.5m is possible due to strong sales in Japan and Others, but that is due to the weak yen. So Nintendo predicts the Yen to be just as weak or even weaker, which honestly would annoy me, because I am already paying double price for some groceries as compared with before.f

Not true because it seems they are expecting the exchange rate for FY25 to be 1usd = 140yen compared to this FY24 at 1usd = 144yen. I'm assuming they have a small system seller planned for the latter half of 2024 or they plan to go through price cuts. That's why they announced the June Direct to assure there are still games coming for the Switch. I'm hoping somewhere along the lines of Tomodachi Collection or Rhythm Heaven cuz those will be a system seller for sure. Could be Metroid Prime 4, but I'm expecting that to launch with the new system, just like BotW was for the Switch. I think price cuts in the West makes sense considering the weak yen makes the Switch in Japan less than $250 for the OLED version with the current exchange rate. I don't expect to see OLED going to $250, but $300 seems possible. They could also do more bundles consoles, although I'm not sure how much effective that will be. 

 



Norion on 07 May 2024
Phenomajp13 said:
Norion said:

Expecting it to remain flat for most of the year is ridiculous. It's guaranteed to consistently decline, especially when word of the successor coming out next year is gonna spread quickly now. Also considering that the OLED makes up most of the sales at this point combined with the growth of the amount of annual playing users slowing down a lot means that an increasingly large share of Switches being sold are going to existing owners and those people in particular will reconsider buying a Switch now or soon if they know that the successor isn't far off.

That's not guaranteed at all actually considering Japan and Others were up. I think this is why I believe we will see price cuts because only a price cut could stabilize the decline. Price cuts across the original and Oled are meant to find those late gen consumers and encourage those original Switch owners to upgrade to Oled. These people are not Switch 2 early adopters, so a successor announcement will not have any affect on them. These people are looking for cheaper prices/good deals. You must remember there will still be retailer deals, so a 299.99 Oled model will also see bundled software (deals) at the retail level. Just last month, we saw Switch get a boost in Japan due to deals on the Oled model. Discounts can definitely steady the decline, obviously no company wants to do them annually but this late in the gen would help set Switch up for its late stages of life (more affordable entry price) and help penetrate the market further seeking those late adopting consumers.

How it's doing in those regions is not even remotely enough to make up for the decline elsewhere and even with a price cut there will obviously be a portion of consumers who decide to refrain from getting a Switch this year if they know the successor is coming in 2025. Some people who already own a Switch won't bother with getting an OLED later this year or at the start of next year when they can get a much better upgrade if they just wait a bit longer, that's just basic logic. Same for how some who don't have one yet will decide to not bother and just wait a bit more.

Deals like that will help sure though it'll just reduce how big the decline is, not make it so it's flat for most quarters.



Phenomajp13 on 07 May 2024
Norion said:
Phenomajp13 said:

That's not guaranteed at all actually considering Japan and Others were up. I think this is why I believe we will see price cuts because only a price cut could stabilize the decline. Price cuts across the original and Oled are meant to find those late gen consumers and encourage those original Switch owners to upgrade to Oled. These people are not Switch 2 early adopters, so a successor announcement will not have any affect on them. These people are looking for cheaper prices/good deals. You must remember there will still be retailer deals, so a 299.99 Oled model will also see bundled software (deals) at the retail level. Just last month, we saw Switch get a boost in Japan due to deals on the Oled model. Discounts can definitely steady the decline, obviously no company wants to do them annually but this late in the gen would help set Switch up for its late stages of life (more affordable entry price) and help penetrate the market further seeking those late adopting consumers.

How it's doing in those regions is not even remotely enough to make up for the decline elsewhere and even with a price cut there will obviously be a portion of consumers who decide to refrain from getting a Switch this year if they know the successor is coming in 2025. Some people who already own a Switch won't bother with getting an OLED later this year or at the start of next year when they can get a much better upgrade if they just wait a bit longer, that's just basic logic. Same for how some who don't have one yet will decide to not bother and just wait a bit more.

Deals like that will help sure though it'll just reduce how big the decline is, not make it so it's flat for most quarters.

How far off do they miss the target do you think or would rather see what they have in store for this year first?



Norion on 07 May 2024
Phenomajp13 said:
Norion said:

How it's doing in those regions is not even remotely enough to make up for the decline elsewhere and even with a price cut there will obviously be a portion of consumers who decide to refrain from getting a Switch this year if they know the successor is coming in 2025. Some people who already own a Switch won't bother with getting an OLED later this year or at the start of next year when they can get a much better upgrade if they just wait a bit longer, that's just basic logic. Same for how some who don't have one yet will decide to not bother and just wait a bit more.

Deals like that will help sure though it'll just reduce how big the decline is, not make it so it's flat for most quarters.

How far off do they miss the target do you think or would rather see what they have in store for this year first?

I think 11-12m is far more realistic considering its age and that the successor isn't far off. It would be genuinely astounding if it's less than 15% down this fiscal year since 11-12m would still be a great result for its final fiscal year as the main system.



Around the Network
ShadowLink93 on 07 May 2024
Farsala said:

Regional YoY Q4 shipments

Japan .55m > .67m (+21%)
Americas 1.34m > .67m (-50%)
Europe .87m > .34m (-61%)
Others .3m > .27m (-10%)
Total 3.06m > 1.96m (-36%)

A massive drop in the quarter YoY. Japan somehow is up YoY, with Others barely down YoY. In other news the JPY hit a 34 year low against the dollar, and isn't faring much better vs other currencies. Europe and the Americas have massive drops. Maybe even Americans and Europeans are buying the Switch from Japan now.

To further explain this phenomenon, lets compare the full FY now that the FY is finished.

Regional FY shipments

Japan 4.37m > 4.41m (+1%)
Americas 6.97m > 5.52m (-21%)
Europe 4.98m > 3.90m (-22%)
Others 1.65m > 1.86m (+14%)
Total 17.97m > 15.70m (-13%)

Japan is up YoY for the entire FY in shipments, which is quite interesting because Famitsu had sales for the FY as +500k for the year before. Americas and Europe are down quite a bit, but steady. And Others continues to be a strong region with all their buddies getting the Switch from Japan.

Basically Nintendo thinks 13.5m is possible due to strong sales in Japan and Others, but that is due to the weak yen. So Nintendo predicts the Yen to be just as weak or even weaker, which honestly would annoy me, because I am already paying double price for some groceries as compared with before.

A regional breakdown for 13.5m could look like this.

Japan 4m
Americas 4m
Europe 3m
Others 2.5m

Japan keeps ridiculously strong due to the weak yen and Europe and Americas continue to fall. Others somehow increases greatly. Give or take a few 100k here or there.

Great work. The hardware drops in Americas and Europe are bad, might be due to massive over shipments in Q3 though. Europe was only down 30% according to GSD sell through data but 61% down in shipments, plenty of unsold inventory left over from Q3.



ShadowLink93 on 07 May 2024
jvmkdg said:

Isn't the difference between shipped and sold very small? Do I want to see the comparison with the PS5 when Sony releases its financial report?

In Q1 and Q2 there is not much difference but in Q3 Nintendo always ship far more than they sell thus in Q4 they sell far more than they ship because of the inventory leftover from Q3.



ShadowLink93 on 07 May 2024

I added the quarterly sales for software, both Zelda games have tanked. No chance of BOTW catching Smash and TOTK struggling to get past Super Mario Party and only outselling it by 10k this past quarter.

Software Top 10

Total sales followed by sales added to the total in Q4

  • Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 61.97m (1.39m)
  • Animal Crossing New Horizons: 45.36m (570k)
  • Super Smash Bros Ultimate: 34.22m (550k)
  • Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild: 31.85m (240k)
  • Super Mario Odyssey: 27.96m (310K)
  • Pokémon Sword/Shield: 26.27m (100k)
  • Pokémon Scarlet/Violet: 24.92m (560k)
  • Super Mario Party: 20.66m (320k)
  • Legend of Zelda Tears of the Kingdom: 20.61m (330k)
  • New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe: 17.45m (250k)

New Releases + Others

  • Luigi's Mansion 3: 14.25m (270k)
  • Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury: 13.47m (300k)
  • Super Mario Bros. Wonder: 13.44m (1.48m)
  • Nintendo Switch Sports: 13.11m (630k)
  • Mario Party Superstars: 12.89m (580k)
  • Splatoon 3: 11.96m (250k)
  • Kirby and the Forgotten Land: 7.52m (1.06m FY 23/24)
  • Pikmin 4: 3.48m (150k)
  • Super Mario RPG: 3.31m (170k)
  • Princess Peach Showtime!: 1.22m New
  • Mario Versus Donkey Kong: 1.12m New
Last edited by ShadowLink93 - on 08 May 2024

The_Liquid_Laser on 07 May 2024

This thread is funny to me.  Nintendo Switch is doing great and has a strong projection for this new fiscal year.  What that strong projection means though is that Switch has a 95%+ certainty to become the best selling system of all time (and it will likely become #1 in software sales too).  Some people just can't cope with that.  There was this narrative that PS2's record can't ever be broken.  This narrative was always an irrational narrative, but lots of people believed it nonetheless.  

This latest financial report makes it clear that Switch will be the new #1 selling system of all time.  I personally think the PS2 was a great system and I still play my PS2.  But Switch is also a great system and a worthy system to take the throne.  At a certain point everyone is going to have to realize that Switch is the new king.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

javi741 on 07 May 2024
ShadowLink93 said:
Farsala said:

Regional YoY Q4 shipments

Japan .55m > .67m (+21%)
Americas 1.34m > .67m (-50%)
Europe .87m > .34m (-61%)
Others .3m > .27m (-10%)
Total 3.06m > 1.96m (-36%)

A massive drop in the quarter YoY. Japan somehow is up YoY, with Others barely down YoY. In other news the JPY hit a 34 year low against the dollar, and isn't faring much better vs other currencies. Europe and the Americas have massive drops. Maybe even Americans and Europeans are buying the Switch from Japan now.

To further explain this phenomenon, lets compare the full FY now that the FY is finished.

Regional FY shipments

Japan 4.37m > 4.41m (+1%)
Americas 6.97m > 5.52m (-21%)
Europe 4.98m > 3.90m (-22%)
Others 1.65m > 1.86m (+14%)
Total 17.97m > 15.70m (-13%)

Japan is up YoY for the entire FY in shipments, which is quite interesting because Famitsu had sales for the FY as +500k for the year before. Americas and Europe are down quite a bit, but steady. And Others continues to be a strong region with all their buddies getting the Switch from Japan.

Basically Nintendo thinks 13.5m is possible due to strong sales in Japan and Others, but that is due to the weak yen. So Nintendo predicts the Yen to be just as weak or even weaker, which honestly would annoy me, because I am already paying double price for some groceries as compared with before.

A regional breakdown for 13.5m could look like this.

Japan 4m
Americas 4m
Europe 3m
Others 2.5m

Japan keeps ridiculously strong due to the weak yen and Europe and Americas continue to fall. Others somehow increases greatly. Give or take a few 100k here or there.

Great work. The hardware drops in Americas and Europe are bad, might be due to massive over shipments in Q3 though. Europe was only down 30% according to GSD sell through data but 61% down in shipments, plenty of unsold inventory left over from Q3.

Yea I think Nintendo definitely overshipped in Q3 which lowered the shipments lower than expected relative to the sell-through numbers we were receiving from the U.S & Europe in Q4.

I remember many of us after the big declines we saw in November 2023 when it came to sell through numbers from the U.S & Europe we were expecting Switch to be closer to 5M shipped rather than 6.9M it actually shipped, while the 6.9M was bigger than we thought relative to the sell through numbers we saw, it became clear that Nintendo overshipped that quarter after we saw similar declines I'm Q4 but much worse shipments numbers. So 2M+ non-holiday quarters are still certainly possible from here on out once supply and demand becomes leveled again