I agree that Metroid Prime 4 won’t be the Launcher. 

But I disagree with Mario Kart 10 (I don’t think it’ll be called 9).

Mario Kart will be close to the launch but I suspect it to be at least 3 months after launch or within the year. Mario 3D will launch the Successor, this is the one trend that Nintendo follows (Mario, Zelda).

Their biggest franchise seller won't launch on the Switch, since those titles are needed to be pushing the next platform.
Absolutely do not copy Sony strategy on that matter. It'll just keep most of your audience tethered to the OG Switch. Though I think it's fine doing in the first two years with the smaller-medium titles that would most likely need the push of an already existing base.

Of course they will. Zelda BOTW was also launched on Wii U along with Switch, and it was the same scenario as Twilight Princess.

And if you realize it, we're talking about two big Zelda games. The only exceptions to what they usually do. Also the WiiU was almost an non existent entity. No way they weren't gonna do a cross gen there to start up their new console. 

I don't think the negative impact of it would be that much since the PS5 is keeping pace with the PS4 despite its biggest games for the first couple years being cross-gen. Though I do certainly hope stuff like the next 3D Mario isn't so it's not held back by the Switch.

I'm with Mar1217 on this one, the next system will need system selling exclusives and adopting Sony's strategy would be a mistake.
Consumers have shown time and again that they're less likely to automatically buy the next Nintendo system compared to the next Playstation.

Nintendo will always have system exclusives. Nintendo is all about 1st party. 3rd party only just started up once the pandemic hit. I think the successor will be a great combination of 1st and 3rd party, both exclusives and more.

I don't know much about the consumers showing that they are less likely to buy the next Nintendo system than Playstations. Can you explain that one for me please. Thank you! I appreciate that.

Withe the exception of the PS3 where they fucked up massively, PS owners tend to trust Sony enough that they reliably buy the next system, when it comes to home consoles anyway. PS1 owners upgraded to PS2, PS3 owners upgraded to PS4, now PS4 owners are upgrading to PS5.

Nintendo owners however have very often chosen not to buy the next system; consoles like the N64, Gamecube, Wii U, and 3DS, even SNES and GBA to a lesser extent have all sold substantially less than their predecessors.

Sony owners will tend to buy the next one no questions asked, while Nintendo gamers often don't and need more convincing.

Oh I see yeah. I do agree with that. Nintendo usually drops the ball on their next console. In general Nintendo just has a rough time except for their three consoles/handhelds: Wii, DS, GB/GBC. You have a solid point.

So how would you (if you were Nintendo) do to make sure the customers return?

Basically I think they need a killer first year lineup of games just like they had on Switch in 2017, but make sure that the next 3D Mario, the next Mario Kart, the next Splatoon, etc are exclusive to the successor.

I feel like if they tried Sony's approach and kept everything crossgen for the first two years, people would stick to the Switch they already own and the successor would struggle to gain traction.