Yes honestly Nintendo not cutting the price in this day and age has been the same as a price cut but let's not act like both PS5 and Xbox series haven't seen any price adjustments. The PS5 for example saw some of it's lowest price tag in the US in the month of March. We also see in some parts of Europe such as Spain, the PS5 has a hard time moving without price cuts. I think it would be wild to think Nintendo isn't even considering price cuts considering the expectations of a significant drop in software sales, revenue, and profit but hardware to remain flat besides Q1 last year due to Zelda. Either Nintendo has price cuts ready for this holiday, incredible bundles, or another revision is the only way to explain the hardware forecast. Expecting Nintendo to all of a sudden be incompetent in their forecasting this late in the gen is ridiculous.

Yes all true but Nintendo is certainly not going to raise the price in Japan. I would imagine they expect a smaller decline in hardware sales and larger declines in profit, revenue, and software could only be explained by a price cut on hardware everywhere but Japan or very attractive bundles (which did do wonders last holiday) or another revision. I don't think Nintendo is incompetent and will miss their forecast this late in the gen. The forecast is 13.5 million vs. 15.7 million last year, that's a 2.2 million decline with likely around 2 million of that decline will be in Q1 alone due to Zelda last year. That means Nintendo expects Switch to be roughly flat this year vs last year (Q2 2.93, Q3 6.9, and Q4 1.96). Nintendo could certainly afford to do something especially when they are now moving Switch to its late life stage. That usually means entry prices into the ecosystem and/or bundles.

Slightly over 50% of all software sales are now digital. But I'm trying to figure out what percentage of all packed goods is specifically download. The graph and notes aren't really telling that story.

It might be a small bit overtracked on here yes.....  considering how many units are on ships, and how many are likely to be in stores.
Its not a drastic amount though, like maybe a couple hundre tusands or such.  It points to good tracking from VGChartz, to be off by such a small amount.

That fiscal projection for the Switch is definitely the most interesting thing. 13.5M is mighty huge for a year with quasi nothing too big at this point.

So we either have to expect a few possible things.
1) The next Nintendo Direct may announce a few big titles for the reminder of the year which would lead to good hardware sales.
2) They might put the Switch models on sales to drive up demand, which they haven't done this far this generation so it's unlikely but not impossible nonetheless.
3) They expect the demand to remain relatively flat to last year, which this far in Calendar Q1 hasn't been proven right.

I'm expecting for them to revision down to 11-12M on the next fiscal quarter but hey we'll see if they stick to their guns anyway.

Also Kirby and The Forgotten Land at 7.5M sold leeezzz gooo!!

Expecting it to remain flat for most of the year is ridiculous. It's guaranteed to consistently decline, especially when word of the successor coming out next year is gonna spread quickly now. Also considering that the OLED makes up most of the sales at this point combined with the growth of the amount of annual playing users slowing down a lot means that an increasingly large share of Switches being sold are going to existing owners and those people in particular will reconsider buying a Switch now or soon if they know that the successor isn't far off.

That's not guaranteed at all actually considering Japan and Others were up. I think this is why I believe we will see price cuts because only a price cut could stabilize the decline. Price cuts across the original and Oled are meant to find those late gen consumers and encourage those original Switch owners to upgrade to Oled. These people are not Switch 2 early adopters, so a successor announcement will not have any affect on them. These people are looking for cheaper prices/good deals. You must remember there will still be retailer deals, so a 299.99 Oled model will also see bundled software (deals) at the retail level. Just last month, we saw Switch get a boost in Japan due to deals on the Oled model. Discounts can definitely steady the decline, obviously no company wants to do them annually but this late in the gen would help set Switch up for its late stages of life (more affordable entry price) and help penetrate the market further seeking those late adopting consumers.

I've gone through all our Switch sales for Q1 2024 and have adjusted it down from 139.50M to 139.22M. We had it up YoY in Asia and MEA (similar to Japan) as those regions we get little data from and sales are now down ~10% YoY in those regions. I also lowered sales slightly in Canada, Latin America, Germany, Other Europe, and Oceania. The gap between shipped and sold did still shrink in the latest quarter compared to the end of 2023. But not by as much.

13.5m for hardware is higher than I expected, but certainly not impossible. It was just a year ago that 15m was deemed crazy high and unattainable; the actual result was 15.70m.

This time around we know even less about Nintendo's lineup, but this isn't worrisome when we've gone time and time again through the same thing of Nintendo having a short turnaround from game announcement to release. What we do know is that Paper Mario and Luigi's Mansion 2 are releasing earlier than anyone expected, and that isn't something that a company who is short of games would do.

Nintendo talks about reinvigorating the Switch platform, so a new SKU is likely. When current SKUs are unlikely to see permanent price cuts, then the logical option is a cost-efficient to produce new SKU. That's something that isn't unheard of.

If Rol is right about it being another revision because permanent price cuts are unlikely then either a Lite revision or a model that resembles the Oled model but has a 7 inch LCD screen instead of Oled screen. Other than that, what in the world could Nintendo do?