Nintendo's earnings release for the 4th quarter of the fiscal year ending March 31st 2024 has been published, this covers the three month period from January 1st to March 31st 2024. Nintendo shipped 1.96 million units of Switch hardware and 35.72 million units of Switch software bringing lifetime totals to 141.32 million for hardware and 1235.82 million for software.

The total for the full fiscal year is 15.70 million for hardware and 199.67 million for software.

Year over year quarter 4 hardware sales are 1.11 million down from 3.07 million and software sales are 6.13 million down from 41.85 million.

Four titles sold over one million units this quarter, these were new releases Mario Versus Donkey Kong (1.12 million), Princess Peach Showtime! (1.22 million) plus Super Mario Bros. Wonder (1.48 million) and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (1.39 million)

The Nintendo Switch projections for the fiscal year ending March 31st 2025 are 13.5 million units for hardware and 165 million units for software.

Hardware

Switch Hardware Q4: 1.96m
Regional Split Q4: Japan 670k, Americas 670k, Europe 340k, Other 270k
Model Variants Q4: Standard 460k, Lite 340k, Oled 1.15m

Switch Hardware Total: 141.32m
Regional Split Total: Japan 34.00m, Americas 54.52m, Europe 36.48m, Other 16.31m
Model Variants Total: Standard 93.44m, Lite 23.53m, Oled 24.34m

Global Shipment History (millions)

Software

Switch Software Q4: 35.72m
Regional Split Q4: Japan 7.19m, Americas 15.41m, Europe 9.71m, Other 3.41m
Tie Ratio Q4: 18.22

Switch Software Total: 1235.82m
Regional Split Total: Japan 239.92m, Americas 540.18m, Europe 356.32m, Other 97.40m
Tie Ratio Total: 8.74

Global Shipment History (millions)

As already stated, 13.5 million is ambitious. What we know of already announced games it does not seem to be that many system sellers. Guessing that something that can move units will be announced in the direct in June or Nintendo is just a bit detached and hopeful.

Global decline of 36% compared to Q4 FY2022 (ending in March 2023) but Japan is the only region to have increase in shipments for Q4 FY23 compared to Q4 FY22

YES, exports DO exist for Switch too in Japan.

Nintendo is a conservative company. They would not forecast 13.5 million if they did not think they could meet it. But I agree it does look very high looking from the outside.

Nintendo must have something up its sleeve, we don't know about.

Looking at their Revenue and Profit forecast for FY2025, they expect a big drop. So some kind of price promotion could be on the table either going full on pack-in software or indeed price cuts.

Regional YoY Q4 shipments

Japan .55m > .67m (+21%)
Americas 1.34m > .67m (-50%)
Europe .87m > .34m (-61%)
Others .3m > .27m (-10%)
Total 3.06m > 1.96m (-36%)

A massive drop in the quarter YoY. Japan somehow is up YoY, with Others barely down YoY. In other news the JPY hit a 34 year low against the dollar, and isn't faring much better vs other currencies. Europe and the Americas have massive drops. Maybe even Americans and Europeans are buying the Switch from Japan now.

To further explain this phenomenon, lets compare the full FY now that the FY is finished.

Regional FY shipments

Japan 4.37m > 4.41m (+1%)
Americas 6.97m > 5.52m (-21%)
Europe 4.98m > 3.90m (-22%)
Others 1.65m > 1.86m (+14%)
Total 17.97m > 15.70m (-13%)

Japan is up YoY for the entire FY in shipments, which is quite interesting because Famitsu had sales for the FY as +500k for the year before. Americas and Europe are down quite a bit, but steady. And Others continues to be a strong region with all their buddies getting the Switch from Japan.

Basically Nintendo thinks 13.5m is possible due to strong sales in Japan and Others, but that is due to the weak yen. So Nintendo predicts the Yen to be just as weak or even weaker, which honestly would annoy me, because I am already paying double price for some groceries as compared with before.

A regional breakdown for 13.5m could look like this.

Japan 4m
Americas 4m
Europe 3m
Others 2.5m

Japan keeps ridiculously strong due to the weak yen and Europe and Americas continue to fall. Others somehow increases greatly. Give or take a few 100k here or there.

Mario Wonder is underperforming. The game is simply not that good.

New Switch Revision for Holiday '24, and price cuts as well. Then, announcement of Switch 2 1st Quarter '25, to be released Holiday same year.

Isn't the difference between shipped and sold very small? Do I want to see the comparison with the PS5 when Sony releases its financial report?

I do like that 13.5m forecast but they'll need to kick things back into gear to reach it. Even their evergreens are slowing down a bit. I think agressive bundling is their best bet unless they have something quite big for the holiday, but I guess we'll have to wait and see.

How much BotW sold versus TotK in the last quarter?