Switch Ships 141.32 Million Units as of March 2024

[Shtinamin_]

Shatts said:

Farsala said:

Basically Nintendo thinks 13.5m is possible due to strong sales in Japan and Others, but that is due to the weak yen. So Nintendo predicts the Yen to be just as weak or even weaker, which honestly would annoy me, because I am already paying double price for some groceries as compared with before.f

Not true because it seems they are expecting the exchange rate for FY25 to be 1usd = 140yen compared to this FY24 at 1usd = 144yen. I'm assuming they have a small system seller planned for the latter half of 2024 or they plan to go through price cuts. That's why they announced the June Direct to assure there are still games coming for the Switch. I'm hoping somewhere along the lines of Tomodachi Collection or Rhythm Heaven cuz those will be a system seller for sure. Could be Metroid Prime 4, but I'm expecting that to launch with the new system, just like BotW was for the Switch. I think price cuts in the West makes sense considering the weak yen makes the Switch in Japan less than $250 for the OLED version with the current exchange rate. I don't expect to see OLED going to $250, but $300 seems possible. They could also do more bundles consoles, although I'm not sure how much effective that will be. 

 

I personally believe that if they do release a Tomodachi, Rhythm Heaven and other smaller IP's then the "system seller" would be Tomodachi due to nostalgia. Rhythm Heaven sells round 1-3M units at most, and those that are Rhythm Heaven enjoyers (like myself) have already gotten a Switch before.

I am a strong believer that Metroid Prime 4 will not be the cross-gen launch, because I think they will be releasing a new 3D Mario, and a few months later the new Mario Kart.

This 2nd half will probably be (my wish list, most realisitc to the top):
Mario Party iteration
Metroid Prime 4
DK (due to DKC in Universal & his presence in the movie)
Nintendo World Champions NES Deluxe
Tomodachi
Rhythm Heaven
Remake of Kid Icarus (1986)
Mario & Sonic @ Paris Olympics 2024
Pokémon (small game)
Nintendogs


Flip Studio (that's a want)
Art Academy (that's a want).

Agreed $300 OLED, $150 Lite, $250 Switch or bundles: MK8D+booster bundle, SMBW bundle, TotK bundle, Pikmin 4 bundle. Each bundle would be an additional $50. Maybe Nintendo implements both scenarios essentially slashing the price by $60.

With Successor Announcement in Nov 2024

Fight-the-Streets said:

Tober said:

Nintendo is a conservative company. They would not forecast 13.5 million if they did not think they could meet it. But I agree it does look very high looking from the outside.

Nintendo must have something up its sleeve, we don't know about.

Looking at their Revenue and Profit forecast for FY2025, they expect a big drop. So some kind of price promotion could be on the table either going full on pack-in software or indeed price cuts.

Looking at their forecast with net sales down 19.3%, operating profit down 24.4%, ordinary profit down 38.3%, net profit down 38.9% and software sales down 17.4%, it's a big financial decline. Despite this substantial decrease to still forecasting Switch shippings of 13.5m (only down 14% and therefore less than software) can only mean one or two things:

1. Switch will receive a price cut (at the very least one of the 3 models) and/or bundles
2. New Switch SKU model where the profit (margin) is lower than on the existing 3 SKU's.

The above is the logical analysis, otherwise, the forecasted numbers don't make sense.

Link to Financial Results, see page 8: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2024/240507_3e.pdf

I dont think they would bring in a new SKU model at such a late stage of the console's life. They have done it before with the GB bringing in the GBC, but that is a handheld and was due to the failure that was the Virtual Boy. If they bring in a new SKU, why would they replace it so soon with a brand new successor? I think option 1 is the most logical.