Switch Ships 141.32 Million Units as of March 2024

[PAOerfulone]

13.5 million is certainly higher than I was projecting.

If Nintendo were to actually meet that projection, that would put the Switch at 154.32 million units lifetime by the end of next Fiscal Year - Putting it past the DS and knocking on the PS2's door. That would be amazing if it would do that... But I have my doubts.
Nintendo is just as prone to over-estimating their hardware projections as they are under-estimating. Yes, they ended up surpassing their 15 million projection of this last Fiscal Year... But that's also after they failed to meet their 21 million projection for FY23 and their 25.50 million projection of FY22.
In all 7 full Fiscal Years the Switch has been on the market, Nintendo has exceeded their forecast in four of them, while failing to meet their forecast in three of them. So it's just as, if not more, likely that they fail to meet that 13.5 million than they are to meet or exceed it.

So they will need to have a few tricks and plays up their sleeve to make that number happen. Luckily for them, they still have the most effective and obvious one in their hand - A price cut. The fact that they expect their profit and revenue to decrease as much as they do despite them also expecting hardware and software sales to maintain a healthy, slim decline... I'd say that is an indicator that price cuts, or at least much more frequent bundles, are what is being planned.
Another trick up their sleeve is also what they have planned for Switch this year in terms of games. After Luigi's Mansion 2 HD at the end of June, the rest of the 2024 lineup is a huge question mark. That June Direct is going to say a lot about what the final stretch of the Switch is going to look like. If they're expecting 13.5 million, then I'd assume they have a big surprise or two still in store for the Switch and plan to giving it a big sendoff before Switch 2.
Speaking of Switch 2, the eventual reveal of their successor will do more to effect the Switch's last legs than anything else. Furukawa himself has already said they plan to make an announcement for the successor during the fiscal year - That could range from a full blown reveal to just "The Successor is well into development, expect the full reveal for Holiday 2025, lol" drawing it out EVEN FURTHER. But rest assured, whenever they finally DO reveal Switch 2 - You can mark that date as the beginning of the end for Switch 1, and depending on where its sales are at that point, that will likely be the difference in whether or not it becomes the best-selling video game hardware of all-time.