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Tober said:

Nintendo is a conservative company. They would not forecast 13.5 million if they did not think they could meet it. But I agree it does look very high looking from the outside.

Nintendo must have something up its sleeve, we don't know about.

Looking at their Revenue and Profit forecast for FY2025, they expect a big drop. So some kind of price promotion could be on the table either going full on pack-in software or indeed price cuts.

Looking at their forecast with net sales down 19.3%, operating profit down 24.4%, ordinary profit down 38.3%, net profit down 38.9% and software sales down 17.4%, it's a big financial decline. Despite this substantial decrease to still forecasting Switch shippings of 13.5m (only down 14% and therefore less than software) can only mean one or two things:

1. Switch will receive a price cut (at the very least one of the 3 models) and/or bundles
2. New Switch SKU model where the profit (margin) is lower than on the existing 3 SKU's.

The above is the logical analysis, otherwise, the forecasted numbers don't make sense.

Link to Financial Results, see page 8: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2024/240507_3e.pdf