The only question is how far the Switch will get. I predict a minimum of 35- 36 million LTD. Who was that guy predicting 40 million? I would not say its impossible but a bit too high...

I don't recall who said 40M. I gave Japan the goal of 38.08M in order to reach 160M, which means it needs to sell 3.49M more units. And in order to reach my goal for the Switch of 162.36M I have Japan selling 39.11M which only needs 4.52M more units.

38.08M is possible to reach in 2026 as this year it should sell near 3.19M. And see as how Switch is decreasing in sales now and the successor releases in June (rumor) I predict it will have a 45% drop selling 1.43M in 2025. My prediction of 39.11M is optimistic but doable.

That was @tbone51 , famed for doing such predictions, because most of them actually came true despite getting mocked early on for being "impossible"

Here's the thread of the 40M prediction if you want to know more, it's from early 2021 but his 3.2M prediction for this year seems spot on

Thanx! I guess 35 million LTD (march 2027) will be the absolute floor for the Switch in japan. 160-162 million LTD WW? I don't know. If the Switch lands clearly above 150 million by FY's end we can talk. 155 million LTD WW at march 2027 is the absolute floor. I'd even bet my head on that.

Crazy that Switch Japanese sales this year is comparable to Xbox sales in the US and the EU put together.

It shows two things:

Xbox less popular this generation.

But also that Japan remains a very big console market, its strong tradition of console gaming didn't die from the rise of mobile gaming.

Numbers have been updated with week 49 from Famitsu.

I think 3 million for JPN 2024 is absolutley doable. Maybe a bit more maybe a bit less but somewhere in that range. The graph will end in Switch's favor.

So far the Switch is averaging 80,428 per week in the month of December. At this pace it will sell 321,712 units in December only reaching a total of 3.07M

In order to reach my prediction of 3.19M, the Switch will need to sell an average of 119k over the next three weeks. Still very doable.

Numbers have been updated with week 50 from Famitsu.

So far the Switch is averaging 89,905 per week in the month of December. At this pace it will sell 359,620 units in December only reaching a total of 3.11M

In order to reach my prediction of 3.19M, the Switch will need to sell an average of 128.9k over the next two weeks. Can be possible, but my prediction may be slightly high. We will see.