Farsala said:
Phenomajp13 said:
Nah several have made similar predictions to yours, Farsala for example probably agreed with your initial prediction before the year. I've been a lurker here for years, I say this site during the Wii era lol. Posters like ioi, thesource, and Rol. I've first found this site in 2008 during the explosive era of Wii. Just some background on me. Don't change buddy who you are. We all are anonymous by the way and we all are random. What do you think Switch will ship next fiscal year (April 2024 to March 2025)? Im thinking between 8 and 9 million with a 10 million max. Putting Switch around 150 million as of March 2025 and I expect Switch 2 to launch November 2024. I expect the Switch to finish it life between 155 and 160 million, so it will be interesting.
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I predicted 4.8m in September. Curl-6 predicted 4.5m. Slownenberg predicted 4.464m. XtremeBG predicted 4m.
Is @Lostaccount you? Because he predicted 4.7-5m.
But hey, we were all very much wrong with XtremeBG looking to be the best predictor.
I also made a prediction mid November. About 4.2m, again it looks like I predicted too high even with so much data.
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Farsala, again this isn't about bad predictions. This is about his behavior after the bad predictions. I don't care about how people high balled Switch, bad predictions happen. Also, that certainly wasn't your prediction before the year. You are on record lowballing Switch in Rol's thread about Switch reaching 160 million. So don't sit here and act like you aren't similar to Xtreme in being overly pessitic towards Switch. You also have an hilarious excuse in one of your post because you are clearly going to be wrong about it's lifetime sales, you stated how you are wrong only because Nintendo held on to Switch longer. No one called you out about your predictions in either case because you didn't act like how you were right all along. That's why I through words at him like liar and dishonest. Being a bad predictor or overly pessitimistic doesn't make you a liar. Lying about it does, that's what he did. Being a fellow Sony fan doesn't mean you need to defend him like DonFerrari is bending over backwards to do.
DonFerrari said:
XtremeBG said:
April isn't half. And even if it was half what ? I can change whatever I want whenever I want. And I will if I want to. 500k isn't a big change. Also why not calling out other people that may have changed their predictions and what is the problem in general with changing prediction ? You are just trying to hate on me or insult. This is the truth.
Also that can't be called a prediction, as I was explaining about a question about the comparisons. I said that I expect sales to be more closer to 3M. Also in April the data we have was until march so we were still in the first months of the year. Half is july when we have the june data.
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Sony and Nintendo change their forecast of the year whenever sales are above or below their original forecast and/or headwinds/unforseen good circumstances show up. No one would call they liars for changing their forecast of the year based of newer data. They would be liars if they had more precise data and hide it to manipulate the stock shares for whatever reason (like lowering price to be able to buy or increasing to sell or get better bonus).
The logic of this alt is very odd.
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You are so hell bent on defending your fellow Sony fan, you don't even bother to comprehend what im saying to him. I don't care about his bad predictions, I, Curl, and likely several others noticed the lying.
psychicscubadiver said:
Well... that was a hell of a read.
I get the guy's original point that "I also think Switch will be more closer to the DS'2.8M than 3DS'3.3M at the end." is an overly pessimistic prediction, but I do not understand why having a pessimistic prediction is such a big issue, to the point of name calling and accusations.
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You get my original point because you know how to read and see what he said. This has never been about his bad predictions, that's what his fellow Sony fans want to spin this to be about. They will not acknowledge the dishonesty, its in this very thread and called out by Curl. He knows what he originally said and was dishonest about it. Its not about him being wrong, several people were wrong. No one said anything to them, because its about his behavior after being wrong. That's not name calling or accusations, I literally pointed out the clear dishonesty. Imagine living in a world where someone can murder another human but the people that get locked up are the ones that call them a murderer? I shouldn't be banned for calling someone a liar, after they lie. That's the exact opposite of how this world operates. I can show you several instances in this world where just an accusation will atleast get you arrested and questioned, right or wrong. It's not name calling or accusations, if there is clear evidence. He acted like those were his expectations all along, knowing damn well what he said in April.
DonFerrari said:
psychicscubadiver said:
Well... that was a hell of a read.
I get the guy's original point that "I also think Switch will be more closer to the DS'2.8M than 3DS'3.3M at the end." is an overly pessimistic prediction, but I do not understand why having a pessimistic prediction is such a big issue, to the point of name calling and accusations.
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At the time he made the prediction and had to choose a system to compare one that had 2.8M (that he expected switch to outsell on his 3-3.5M) made more sense than using a system that sold let's say 4M (because the center of his target 3.25 was closer to 2.8M than to 4M).
I saw some "pessimistic" predictions of Extreme for PS and that doesn't make him a PS hater or a liar.
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That's nice, doesn't change what he said. He said in April he expects to be closer to the 2.8 million and then in November appartantly he was right about the 4 million all along. That's the very definition of being dishonest.
XtremeBG said:
I like Xbox, I like Playstaion. I can't say I am as big fan for the Nintendo systems as I am as for Xbox or PS. However I don't hate them or have some bad feelings for them. In fact I find Switch interesting system. Maybe even the most interesting Nintendo system for me personally. However what I like the most does not have anything to do with the sales projections I make. It simply has to do about the data we have at the time I am writing my predictions and also it has to do with the history of the other console's trajectory too. Of course Switch is different. That is what make it even more interesting to predict. And 3m to 3.5M range or even 3M if you want isn't a pessimistic prediction when you have 2022 year of 4.7M and when you are entering your 7th year on the market, knowing how the previous consoles performs in this point in their life. Decline from 4.7M to (3 to 3.5M) isn't enormous and it's about right for console declining every year by about the same percentage worldwide. It becomes pessimistic in comparison to what really happened after you have all the data for the entire year. 3M to 4M is pessimistic. However in the time I made it it wasn't pessimistic it was just normal cuz many systems in their 7th year drops even much more than 4.7M to the range of 3 to 3.5M. See DS, see Wii. If I wanted to really be pessimistic (at the moment of me doing the prediction, I could say 2M for example or if we have to equal the DS drop, then even 1.5M maybe. It is after the data we have after the year's over when it becomes pessimistic, because Switch had better year than normal console should have in it's 7th year and better weeks before the holidays than many of you expected too. Even if we have to ask everyone from those projectin 4 or 4.5M even they will tell that probably they expected a little bit weaker year of the months before november, and then the boost for the holidays which would put Switch to their 4 or 4.5M projections.
Also why if I want to sell the Switch sale badly (like @curl-6 says) or this alt. or my predictions are pessimistic every time, why I made the 25M projection for 2021 for Switch which even ended highball in the end (Switch finished with 24M), and why I gave range of 12 to 16M for worldwide for this year for the system (which Switch is looking like it will finish just in the middle of that) if I wanted to give pessimistic prediction or the Switch to sell badly ? Why I didn't gave 20M for 2021 or didn't gave 10M at max for this year for WW sales ? Why I didn't gave 2M for japan ? Why I am not giving the Switch 5M for next (calendar) year, instead I am giving around 10M If I want to make pessimistic predictions? And why the famous 15M to 18M prediction range for 2022 (if stock issues were not there for PS and xbox, however they ended being their, which imo resultet in a few milions more for Switch and a few milions lower for PS/XB) ended way closer (1M off) than many many people here projections were in the start of that year (20-23/24M) in the end ? And Why then it was even bigger fire of discussion about that, and everyone jumped on me, but when the year ended with 19M (much lower than anyone of the posters expected) no one called them out instead I was again the bad one ? (even though my projection was much closer to the reality than theirs, even without counting the "if" condition I put) ?
But even though I like PS and Xbox a little more than Nintendo, I am not highballing them when I make predictions for them too. I've made opinions on PS or xbox too that have ended on the low side too. I've made only 1 prediction about PS4 that was on the high side and it was because I (as many others) expected SONY to better handle the system after PS5 launch (and even 2019 and 2020) and allow the system to at least reach 130M. (or if the prices reached PS2 levels and Sony maintain the system as PS2 even reaching not that far from that system too). I can't remember having positive than normal projections for either PS5 or XBOX Series (or even XB1).
I want everyone who is agreeing with @Phenomajp13 or even some of comments @curl-6 made for me to answer on every question of this post here. Let's see how am I pessimistic always or how I want the Switch to sell badly based on the things I've written here ? Common I dare you.
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Nice rant, regardless you know what you origninally said and when you were clearly going to be wrong, you acted like this was your expectation all along. That's what Curl said. Farsala on the other hand made a 130 million lifetime prediction about Switch in Rol's 160 million thread and admitted he was wrong. Obviously he has adjusted his prediction just like you would or anyone else. The difference is, Farsala didn't tell us how he was right all along after making several post otherwise. That's the difference, this isn't about your predictions. Why would I care about your consistent undershooting? It's the dishonestly afterward, that can clearly be pointed out. I still haven't found a single post during spring about you changing your prediction to 4 million? Yet I could easily find your post in April about closer to the 2.8 million? Isn't that odd? You understand that's the very definition of being dishonest right? Saying you did something, knowing you didn't.