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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - When will the Switch Successor launch (2023 version)

 

When will the Switch Successor release

Q1-Q2 2023 3 3.03%
 
Q3 2023 1 1.01%
 
Q4 2023 4 4.04%
 
Q1 2024 19 19.19%
 
Q2 2024 12 12.12%
 
Q3 2024 7 7.07%
 
Q4 2024 24 24.24%
 
Q1-Q2 2025 17 17.17%
 
Q3-Q4 2025 7 7.07%
 
Never or at a later date ... 5 5.05%
 
Total:99

@Slownenberg, I agree. The software pipeline needs to be substantial, robust, and vital. That could even mean taking care of underused IPS in meaningful ways for more niche franchises. I'd sure like to see a Chibi Robo, Excite Truck, Wario Land, Punchout, etc. None of these are system sellers, but all deserve an opportunity to take advantage of the Switch Effect. On the other hand, this desire to continue aggressively pushing the Switch could also mean they don't have the launch titles ready for the Switch 2 and they're hoping to give their developers more time. Here's to no droughts in 2024.



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Slownenberg said:

If they think they can sell more systems (perhaps another year close to 20m) then hopefully they have a bunch of games coming this year to back up that belief (ie 2D Mario, Star Fox?, Prime 4, Prime remake, DK, Z:WW/TP HD, etc). I don't see them needing to increase production unless they've got a lot of stuff in the software pipeline that is close to ready and maybe price cuts on older games as well.

They have Zelda. That is a lot of stuff.




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mZuzek said:
Slownenberg said:

If they think they can sell more systems (perhaps another year close to 20m) then hopefully they have a bunch of games coming this year to back up that belief (ie 2D Mario, Star Fox?, Prime 4, Prime remake, DK, Z:WW/TP HD, etc). I don't see them needing to increase production unless they've got a lot of stuff in the software pipeline that is close to ready and maybe price cuts on older games as well.

They have Zelda. That is a lot of stuff.

They could be anticipating a surge in buyers if the Mario movie does really well (hey, you never know) as well. I mean it may not materialize but it might be something they have in the back of their minds. 

Last edited by Soundwave - 5 days ago

I'm not surprised that Nintendo is ramping up the production of the Switch. Even in 2021, they could have sold 29-30 mil. instead of barely 25 mil. if there wouldn't have been chip shortages. The sales trajectory was clearly heading into that direction. Then come 2022 were they had to lower the sales expectations by 2 mil. because of chip shortages. I don't think that those 6-7 mil. people who wanted to buy a Switch but couldn't all just walked away (and bought a Xbox Series S/X, PS5 or something else instead) and never looked back. The majority of them is/was (some of them surely bought one in the meantime) still interested in the Switch.

The same is true for the PS5, just because it's trailing behind the PS4 doesn't mean it will not catch up/come close to it. It's simple, most of those who wanted to buy one but couldn't, still want one. Sure, some have bought a Xbox Series S/X instead but most probably in the later years of the PS5 many of them still will buy a PS5 as the exclusives are too tempting for them.



Wman1996 said:

@HyrulianScrolls

I agree with @super_etecoon on the lifespan interpretation. While it's true that Nintendo saying the Switch was in the middle of its lifespan in 2021 could mean a successor is a long way off, their statement is too vague. And middle does not mean 50 percent, at least not entirely. The Switch 2 could release at any point in 2024 and Nintendo's statement is still true. The Switch will almost surely stay in production a bare minimum of a year after its successor launches. It will probably even be more like 3-5 years.
The Switch 2 could launch in Q3/Q4 2023, and the middle of life comment would still be true.
A piece of hardware's lifespan is almost always longer than the time from its launch to its successor's launch. The Wii U is one of the few exceptions. It was discontinued on January 31, 2017. That's a little over a month before Switch launched. The GameCube also had a pretty short lifespan. Not as short as the Wii U, but it nevertheless was discontinued in February 2007. (about 3 months after the launch of the Wii).

This would be an understandable interpretation if we were talking MS or Sony. But this is Nintendo. When they release a new system, they are done with supporting the old one very very soon after (if not immediately). Maybe Switch would break that mold, but it would set a new precedent for them if so. And I don’t think so because Nintendo needs the successor to sell after such a huge install base on Switch, so they are not gonna wanna have cross gen cut into that for them. Hence, I think we can interpret middle of the “life cycle” from them as the time they are supporting the Switch with big new software, otherwise known as until the successor comes out. 

Most important of all though, 2025 or 2026 is what makes the most sense when you look at the sales trajectory. Any sooner and they are cutting off massive easy money from Switch they could otherwise have, and why on Earth would they do that? 

Last edited by HyrulianScrolls - 5 days ago

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super_etecoon said:

@Slownenberg, I agree. The software pipeline needs to be substantial, robust, and vital. That could even mean taking care of underused IPS in meaningful ways for more niche franchises. I'd sure like to see a Chibi Robo, Excite Truck, Wario Land, Punchout, etc. None of these are system sellers, but all deserve an opportunity to take advantage of the Switch Effect. On the other hand, this desire to continue aggressively pushing the Switch could also mean they don't have the launch titles ready for the Switch 2 and they're hoping to give their developers more time. Here's to no droughts in 2024.

Oh yeah totally. The main games I'm expecting to see on Switch are roughly the ones I listed in the last post: DK, 2D Mario, Prime 4, other Prime stuff like 1 remake and maybe 2/3 HD bundle or something, hopefully Z:WW/TP pack. But there are plenty of other franchises that Nintendo could fill the next two years with.

A full on Wario platformer for sure, an Excite game absolutely, Punchout would be great, I don't really know anything about Chibi Robo but yeah sure, Star Fox, Kid Icarus, Golden Sun, Wave Race, and I would say Fzero but Nintendo has already basically said they have no plans anytime soon to revive Fzero :(

Also 2D Zelda! When Nintendo combined its handheld and console lines into the single system Switch I was expecting we'd be getting games that have become more handheld style games, and 2D Zelda is the big one. After the success of the Link's Awakening remake I'd love for them to be working on a brand new 2D Zelda in that style.

Certainly there are tons of franchises or series that they could put on Switch that haven't yet graced the system or we only have a previous gen port of, and those series could take advantage of the 'Switch effect' with its huge userbase. Just depends on what Nintendo has been doing!! I'd love for next-gen to not be coming for like three years if Nintendo has a bunch of these games in the pipeline that are still missing from the Switch. The Switch still feels nowhere near the end of its life for me so I'd have no problem if they keep Switch going for a few more years. Hell by then maybe a next-gen Switch would be powerful enough to play current-gen multiplat console games without too much downgrading.



Nintendo would be silly to release a successor whilst the current platform is still printing money... Heck they are even increasing production numbers.

Launching a console and releasing games for it is a costly exercise.

And the longer they wait, the larger the potential jump in hardware capabilities.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

Soundwave said:
mZuzek said:

They have Zelda. That is a lot of stuff.

They could be anticipating a surge in buyers if the Mario movie does really well (hey, you never know) as well. I mean it may not materialize but it might be something they have in the back of their minds. 

I don't think it'll be just Zelda either, I'd be quite surprised if they didn't have a 3D Mario lined up for the holidays, but even if it was just Zelda, it could be a big year in sales. Breath of the Wild is arguably the biggest reason why the Switch is a success - it's easy to forget now, but the entire console was riding on BotW at launch, there was nothing else, and if BotW's release didn't have the enormous impact it had, one can only wonder how well the Switch would've sold. Everyone bought a Switch for this game, everyone loved it, everyone wants the sequel. It's gonna be huge.

On a personal level obviously I want more cool games from Nintendo, but I don't expect they'll have anything that suits my taste outside of Tears of the Kingdom. I want a good new Star Fox, that ain't happening. I want Astral Chain 2, eh, maybe in a few years. I'd want a new IP that's single-player and has more of an interesting setting/story, I don't think Nintendo feels the same. But Tears of the Kingdom's gonna be amazing, I'll take it.




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super_etecoon said:
HyrulianScrolls said:

Dropping this here for everyone forgetting just one year ago Nintendo was still saying switch was still in the middle of its life cycle. Successor is not coming before late 2025 at the very earliest folks.

https://www.techtimes.com/amp/articles/272051/20220219/nintendo-switch-still-midpoint-life-cycle-shuntaro-furukawa.htm

The Playstation 2 sold from 1999-2013, a 14 year lifespan.  Half way through its cycle is 2007, a year after the Playstation 3's launch. 

The Switch will continue to sell after the release of the Switch 2, whether as a heavily discounted console or as a more dedicated handheld side of Nintendo's strategy.

But just because Nintendo has told us something is in the middle, doesn't make it so.  And the middle, like let's say of an orange, is quite a bit, so it kind of depends on what you mean by middle if you consider the rind the beginning and end.  Marketspeak is marketspeak and corporate PR shouldn't be held up as gospel.  You may be correct, but I think sales are a better metric to use for predictions.  That's also why I think half of YouTube creators had lost their minds when in 2020 and 2021 so many were calling for the successor to release in 2022 or 2023. It's like these folks don't even bother to visit VGC or look at the data themselves to notice the jaw dropping figures Nintendo was putting down in 2020 and 2021, and even 2022 ended up being a banner year historically speaking for the Switch.

At least make the effort to click on a link and read the actual statement. Furukawa is refering to the timeframe from launch until replacement, not launch until discontinuation. It's also consistent with his statements from the years before. In early 2020 he said that Switch had just entered the middle of its lifecycle and talked about defying the usual length of lifecycles for Nintendo consoles (the usual would be six years). So when he says "mid-point" in early 2022, you've got the answer to your orange question: The middle ranges roughly from early 2020 all throughout 2023.

I remember it all too well when Furukawa's statement from early 2020 was purposefully misinterpreted to mean that Switch would have six years until replacement, but now three years later when we are about to reach that date, there's zero sight of a Switch successor. That's why "entered the middle of its lifecycle" (in 2020) is a credible statement and why "mid-point" (in 2022) is credible as well. It's also not corporate PR, because these were direct answers to investors where it isn't about earning goodwill from fans, but about money.

When you combine the three important factors - what Nintendo says in financial calls, how much Switch sells, how does Nintendo's first party lineup look like - you get the most accurate picture of what's likely going to happen. And that is Nintendo aiming for 8-10 years of Switch before launching its successor. 2023's success or lack thereof will be crucial to how far Nintendo can stretch this lifecycle, but it has long been laid out in the open that Nintendo wants to exceed the conventional length of a lifecycle, and not just by a few months.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

RolStoppable said:

At least make the effort to click on a link and read the actual statement. Furukawa is refering to the timeframe from launch until replacement, not launch until discontinuation. It's also consistent with his statements from the years before. In early 2020 he said that Switch had just entered the middle of its lifecycle and talked about defying the usual length of lifecycles for Nintendo consoles (the usual would be six years). So when he says "mid-point" in early 2022, you've got the answer to your orange question: The middle ranges roughly from early 2020 all throughout 2023.

I remember it all too well when Furukawa's statement from early 2020 was purposefully misinterpreted to mean that Switch would have six years until replacement, but now three years later when we are about to reach that date, there's zero sight of a Switch successor. That's why "entered the middle of its lifecycle" (in 2020) is a credible statement and why "mid-point" (in 2022) is credible as well. It's also not corporate PR, because these were direct answers to investors where it isn't about earning goodwill from fans, but about money.

When you combine the three important factors - what Nintendo says in financial calls, how much Switch sells, how does Nintendo's first party lineup look like - you get the most accurate picture of what's likely going to happen. And that is Nintendo aiming for 8-10 years of Switch before launching its successor. 2023's success or lack thereof will be crucial to how far Nintendo can stretch this lifecycle, but it has long been laid out in the open that Nintendo wants to exceed the conventional length of a lifecycle, and not just by a few months.

Bold: Where do you see him say that?

"We recognize that the system is at the mid-point of its lifecycle."

What about that sentence tells you that it's from launch until replacement and not until discontinuation?