Nintendo still could have price cuts and new iterations to extend the life of the Switch, and it's still selling pretty well despite the drop. 18M in it's 7th fiscal year would be the greatest selling 7th fiscal year on record. Also, the timeline isn't adding up so much to favor a 2024 release for the Switch. Typically Nintendo announces the existence of their successors 1-3 years before it releases. Took 2 years between announcement & release for the SNES, 3 years for the N64, 2.5 years for the Gamecube, 2.5 years for the Wii, 1.5 years for the Wii U,2 Years for the Switch, 1 year for both the DS and 3DS. If a successor were to release in 2024 Nintendo should already be unveiling at least a codename or the existence of their next console by now, but they aren't even hinting at it right now. It's still possible they announce it after Zelda TOTK in the 2nd half of 2023 and still have a year before a holiday 2024 release, but a release any earlier in 2024 doesn't seem reasonable after just releasing Zelda TOTK and only having very few months to let investors know and market the system for an early 2024 release. I'm still predicting a 2025 release.

There should be some sort of revision this year but inflation has probably put price cuts off the table. There's also that this late in the lifecycle it's not really worth the financial hit to sell maybe a few more million more units in exchange for making far less per unit sold as shown by the PS4 doing a couple price cuts in its first couple years but none afterwards. November 2024 is still close to a full two years away so the timeline is fine so far but I do agree that 2023 isn't reasonable. 

I'll give early 2025 at least a small chance of happening if they end up really needing an extra few months but any later I see no chance now. A reason 2024 makes the most sense is how far after the peak it is. The PS4 peaked in 2017 and then the PS5 released 2020 and the Switch peaked that year so a 2024 release would already be a longer gap than that thanks to its higher sales ceiling giving more room for sales to drop. Basically at this point later than 2024 would mean Nintendo timed things badly which considering them seeing less demand than expected lately is a possibility.

I came so close to buying a switch yesterday, stopped myself last second. Deciding to wat till zelda launches to see if they announce the new console, or atleast hopefully a price drop on the switch.

Okay so this year we have:

- Fire Emblem Engage
- Metroid Prime Remastered
- Kirby Return to Dreamland Deluxe
- Bayonetta Origins
- Advance War 1+2
- Zelda Tears of Kingdom
- Pikmin 4
- Baten Katos I & II

And this is only for the first half of the year. I don't think the successor is for this year

2024 first half

To be honest I don't think fall launches/November launches in particular are all that great anyway in the modern sense. So I don't think it has to be fall 2024 or bust, like it could be April 2024 or June 2024 or August 2024, etc. etc.

Nowadays all that would do is you'd have early adopters and scalpers buy all the initial units leaving more regular consumers out in the cold. If you launch in say ... May or June or July or August I think it's much better, you get the initial launch sales from early adopters but then have chances for multiple (or at least one) big restock for the holiday season.

Also plenty of Nintendo systems have launched outside the fall period ... Game Boy Advance (March in Japan, July in North America), Super Nintendo (August in North America), N64 (June in Japan, September in North America), original Game Boy (April in Japan, July in North America), original Famicom (July in Japan), 3DS (Feb in Japan, March in North America) and the Switch itself (March worldwide).

Launching in November really only started with the GameCube (Wii, DS, Wii U).

I think you need to use some common sense here ... OK so Nintendo announces Switch successor and gives it a codename and then what? 

All that would do is hurt current Switch sales. Why would Nintendo do that? What exactly do they gain, yeah things were done differently particularly in the 90s, but it isn't the 90s anymore. 

Nintendo announcing the N64 (Project: Reality) just as the SNES was only 2 years old in North America was hilarious. They had to announce NX when they did because people were speculating they were done with hardware especially making an announcement that they were making smartphone games, it was important that their shareholders know that they weren't going to bail out on traditional hardware. 

There's a lot of things Nintendo has done with past systems that they haven't done with the Switch because it doesn't make sense in a modern context anymore. They used to sell retro games through their eShop service, that's ka-put, you have to subscribe now to their online service. They used to do a Nintendo Selects for almost every system of cheaper priced software by a console's 4th/5th year usually ... nope on the Switch. In the past they also said they wouldn't do DLC period, and then they wouldn't do paid online (well things change I guess). They used to have multiple price cuts on a console hardware as old as the Switch, not only have they not cut the price, they actually even increased the price for the new model, lol. 

Shit the entire concept of the Switch itself, I remember even leading up the day of the product reveal in October 2016, many people were still steadfast on the thinking of "Nintendo has never not made a separate home console and portable! They can't do it with NX! It won't happen!" and then whataya know? So much for the past predicting the future. 

Furukawa is also literally a different person, born in a different generation, he runs the show now, he's not necessarily bound by some kind of oath to do everything the same way Yamauchi or Iwata did, we know he doesn't.