When will the Switch Successor launch (2023 version)

[Norion]

javi741 said:

Norion said:

It perplexes me that some people are still saying 2025 or even later when they just cut their sales forecast due to lower than expected demand. The posts saying 2026 or 2027 are wild to read. Maybe they wait till early 2025 if they end up really needing an extra few months to get software ready but they'll have a rough holiday season next year if that has to happen so ideally they'll have enough ready for a 2024 launch.

Nintendo still could have price cuts and new iterations to extend the life of the Switch, and it's still selling pretty well despite the drop. 18M in it's 7th fiscal year would be the greatest selling 7th fiscal year on record. Also, the timeline isn't adding up so much to favor a 2024 release for the Switch. Typically Nintendo announces the existence of their successors 1-3 years before it releases. Took 2 years between announcement & release for the SNES, 3 years for the N64, 2.5 years for the Gamecube, 2.5 years for the Wii, 1.5 years for the Wii U,2 Years for the Switch, 1 year for both the DS and 3DS. If a successor were to release in 2024 Nintendo should already be unveiling at least a codename or the existence of their next console by now, but they aren't even hinting at it right now. It's still possible they announce it after Zelda TOTK in the 2nd half of 2023 and still have a year before a holiday 2024 release, but a release any earlier in 2024 doesn't seem reasonable after just releasing Zelda TOTK and only having very few months to let investors know and market the system for an early 2024 release. I'm still predicting a 2025 release.

There should be some sort of revision this year but inflation has probably put price cuts off the table. There's also that this late in the lifecycle it's not really worth the financial hit to sell maybe a few more million more units in exchange for making far less per unit sold as shown by the PS4 doing a couple price cuts in its first couple years but none afterwards. November 2024 is still close to a full two years away so the timeline is fine so far but I do agree that 2023 isn't reasonable. 

I'll give early 2025 at least a small chance of happening if they end up really needing an extra few months but any later I see no chance now. A reason 2024 makes the most sense is how far after the peak it is. The PS4 peaked in 2017 and then the PS5 released 2020 and the Switch peaked that year so a 2024 release would already be a longer gap than that thanks to its higher sales ceiling giving more room for sales to drop. Basically at this point later than 2024 would mean Nintendo timed things badly which considering them seeing less demand than expected lately is a possibility.