I'm actually going to go out on a limb and say they're gonna stretch this thing out for a decade, so early 2027. Why cut off its life short while it's got such a massive library with solid 2nd/3rd party/indie support and is still selling relatively well?

Though I do think between now and then (maybe mid-holiday 2025) a Switch Pro could be released.

So after the most recent Direct have the folks who insisted BotW 2 was going to launch with new hardware accepted reality?

@Chrkeller I have begun accepting that reality, honestly. Furukawa's recent statements during the Q&A solidify that for me as well. I am expecting an OLED TOTK edition but that won't move the needle too much. Not expecting a Switch Pro anymore. I am expecting a Switch 2 near the end of next year. Maybe they'll drop the price slightly (which is what Nate was suggesting). $300 for the OLED would be better since I imagine a successor would cost $400. $350 for the OLED would be too close to that price.

Fair take and I agree with you.  No pro, switch 2 in 2024.  I think it is likely a pro was planned but sales have been too good.

I agree with this.  Nintendo has already stated that they’re going to let this thing ride.

a possible pro, and/or a price cut on the current units, and there’s another 3-4 years left in the tank.

I know people won’t be happy about something like that… but this is Nintendo we are talking about and they dgaf what the public opinion is.

Stretching the console out for 10 years with a Pro version way closer to the release of a new system sounds like a very Nintendo thing to do. It sounds a little like the Game Boy, since a lot of people consider the Color to be a Pro version. Except the release between the Game Boy and Game Boy Advance was about 11.5 years, not 10.

I'm still banking on March 2024, with November 2024 nearly as likely, and March 2025 not unlikely. 

Nintendo didn't even really plan the Game Boy to go that way. 

What had happened was Yamauchi (then president) basically wanted to axe the existing Game Boy as it had declining sales by the mid-90s. 

They were working on a 32-bit full color successor called codename Atlantis, Nintendo actually showed a slide of this at GDC a while ago:

https://gameboy.fandom.com/wiki/Project_Atlantis

The thing was Atlantis turned out too expensive, bulky, and hard to manufacture. Nintendo released the Virtual Boy instead in 1995, which of course flopped but the fact that they would rush that out to market tells you how badly Nintendo wanted something new to offset flagging Game Boy sales of the time. 

Then Pokemon came out of nowhere in fall 1996 and became a huge hit in Japan, and to capitalize on that Yamauchi basically ordered the development of the Game Boy Color. 

But really that was a very unlikely series of events. If the Atlantis hadn't been so expensive to mass produce, likely that would have at some point launched in 1995 probably instead of the Virtual Boy and game history may well be quite different.

The newest QA with Nintendo's president doesn't sound nearly as bullish. Like they were a while ago saying stuff like "only half way through the product cycle" but in the new QA he repeats several times that the Switch is 7 years old and it's difficult to grow the business with a system that's basically well ... old but they will try their best. 

He also basically said he doesn't think there's a primary hardware solution to a possible sales decline, so I wouldn't be counting on another model/Pro revision based on that comment but anything is possible I suppose. 

All the talk about the system having years to go was interestingly not present in this most recent Q&A at all. Think the lower than expected hardware sales and having to revise fiscal year expectations down a couple of times kinda is a reality check.  Furukawa basically seemed to say it's going to be tough but they're gonna try their best with new games and are hoping the Mario movie and opening of Universal Studios theme parks in the West will give them a boost in the next fiscal year. 

To me that was kind of telling, I think the successor launches in summer-fall 2024. They really backed off the talk of the Switch having a long life cycle left, maybe the Mario movie is a big hit that does give them the hardware boost they're looking for though, who knows. 

I'm sure either way the current Switch will be stocked through 2027 anyway, the 3DS was allowed to go on for several years after the Switch release, so why not the current Switch, just because a new hardware system is out doesn't mean it has to immediately retire. 

2025, first half of the year.

It perplexes me that some people are still saying 2025 or even later when they just cut their sales forecast due to lower than expected demand. The posts saying 2026 or 2027 are wild to read. Maybe they wait till early 2025 if they end up really needing an extra few months to get software ready but they'll have a rough holiday season next year if that has to happen so ideally they'll have enough ready for a 2024 launch.