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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - When will the Switch Successor launch (2023 version)

 

When will the Switch Successor release

Q1-Q2 2023 3 3.03%
 
Q3 2023 1 1.01%
 
Q4 2023 4 4.04%
 
Q1 2024 19 19.19%
 
Q2 2024 12 12.12%
 
Q3 2024 7 7.07%
 
Q4 2024 24 24.24%
 
Q1-Q2 2025 17 17.17%
 
Q3-Q4 2025 7 7.07%
 
Never or at a later date ... 5 5.05%
 
Total:99

Hopefully soon, I want to play tears of the kingdom in 60fps!



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VAMatt said:
siebensus4 said:

I guess Q4 2024, but there's still a 10 % chance that we see new hardware together with the new Zelda in May this year.

There is absolutely zero chance that we're seeing a new Switch in May of this year. There would have been far more info leaked by this point. There has been almost no real information about the next Nintendo system, which means it is not in the hands of developers yet, which means it is not launching in 4 months. 

Keep in mind that Nintendo denied new hardware at E3 2019 (June), announced Switch Lite at July 10th 2019 and released it 2 months later September 20th 2019.

The same with Switch OLED model. Announced July 6th and released 3 months later October 8th 2021.

So if we see a new model, it should be announced 2 or 3 months before the release. Zelda TOTK releases May 12th. So there could be an annoucement in February or March this year without a lot of rumors ahead.

Last edited by siebensus4 - 5 days ago

I have a feeling Nintendo will ride out this generation with the Switch and release their next system Q1 2025. By that time the XS and PS5 will be 5ish years old. What I see Nintendo doing is releasing another model of the switch, and most likely doing more bundles, probably Switch Sports, Mario Kart, and maybe even an animal crossing bundle, as opposed to a price drop.

It's already the third year for XS and PS5, Nintendo still comes in first place every month, why release a new system so soon? Nintendo's software attach rate is higher now than it has been before. Theres no reason to launch Nintendo's next system so soon. 

Last edited by Ashadelo - 5 days ago

我是广州人

Edit: please delete, double post :(



我是广州人

Kakadu18 said:
RolStoppable said:

At least make the effort to click on a link and read the actual statement. Furukawa is refering to the timeframe from launch until replacement, not launch until discontinuation. It's also consistent with his statements from the years before. In early 2020 he said that Switch had just entered the middle of its lifecycle and talked about defying the usual length of lifecycles for Nintendo consoles (the usual would be six years). So when he says "mid-point" in early 2022, you've got the answer to your orange question: The middle ranges roughly from early 2020 all throughout 2023.

(...)

Bold: Where do you see him say that?

"We recognize that the system is at the mid-point of its lifecycle."

What about that sentence tells you that it's from launch until replacement and not until discontinuation?

"We are not able to comment about the next game system at this time. It is now the fifth year since the launch of Nintendo Switch, and the total hardware sell-through has exceeded 90 million units. We recognize that the system is at the mid-point of its lifecycle. The launch of Nintendo Switch - OLED Model has also been contributing to continued sales momentum and we are now offering consumers three Nintendo Switch models to match their play styles and lifestyles, as well as a wide range of software. With this, we believe a foundation for growth has been laid that exceeds what we previously considered to be a conventional hardware lifecycle. With regards to the next game system, we are considering many different things, but as far as the concept and launch timing are concerned, there is nothing we can share at this time."

It comes from the context of the full statement that also addresses the question of the launch timing of a successor, so the mid-point then either implies a longer life until replacement or an unusually long life after a successor has already launched. A long life after the successor's launch would require continued strong software support by Nintendo themselves, but remember that one key point of Switch was to unify all of Nintendo's software development on one platform, because adequate support of two separate systems isn't feasible anymore. Assuming a cross-gen strategy that lasts for at least a few years doesn't make sense either, because Nintendo talks of Switch's successor as a system that can offer ways of play that can't be done on Switch out of the box. That's why I rule it out that Furukawa has been talking about the timeframe from launch to discontinuation, be it in 2022 or in any of the years before when he addressed Switch's lifecycle.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

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siebensus4 said:
VAMatt said:

There is absolutely zero chance that we're seeing a new Switch in May of this year. There would have been far more info leaked by this point. There has been almost no real information about the next Nintendo system, which means it is not in the hands of developers yet, which means it is not launching in 4 months. 

Keep in mind that Nintendo denied new hardware at E3 2019 (June), announced Switch Lite at July 10th 2019 and released it 2 months later September 20th 2019.

The same with Switch OLED model. Announced July 6th and released 3 months later October 8th 2021.

So if we see a new model, it should be announced 2 or 3 months before the release. Zelda TOTK releases May 12th. So there could be an annoucement in February or March this year without a lot of rumors ahead.

Keep in mind that there were tons of leaks before those launches which told us that something was coming.
That hasn't happened with the Switch successor yet.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

Pemalite said:
siebensus4 said:

Keep in mind that Nintendo denied new hardware at E3 2019 (June), announced Switch Lite at July 10th 2019 and released it 2 months later September 20th 2019.

The same with Switch OLED model. Announced July 6th and released 3 months later October 8th 2021.

So if we see a new model, it should be announced 2 or 3 months before the release. Zelda TOTK releases May 12th. So there could be an annoucement in February or March this year without a lot of rumors ahead.

Keep in mind that there were tons of leaks before those launches which told us that something was coming.
That hasn't happened with the Switch successor yet.

Exactly this too. Every next gen console for the last several gens have been preceded by a solid 18 months at the very least of leaks surfacing, if not more like 2 years. The fact that the leak/rumor mill for the successor has yet to really start at all is just more confirmation we are at least 2 years out from a successor 



We also need to look at Nintendo’s software cycle here. Games take a long time to make these days. We are getting new mainline Zelda this year and I’d say extremely likely new mainline Mario too given the hype the movie will create. That means we can expect 3 years from now at the very soonest before we get new mainline iterations of those games, if not more like 5 years. Keep in mind that Nintendo has always had new mainline Mario ready for the first year of the console as well. Nintendo is not launching a new system in 2024 and then not having any new mainline 3D Mario or Zelda ready until 2026 or 2027. That would be suicide for them,

Now I do think it’s possible they could have two teams working on a new Switch Mario for release this year and the next Gen one, but even still I’d say no sooner than 2026 for another mainline one if we get one this year. We also just got new Pokémon, so pencil in 2025 at the soonest for Gen X as well, but I think they will ride it out longer this time after all of the backlash for gen 9 games being so rushed in dev.

All of this to say, Nintendo’s software cadence is honestly lining up very much with something like a 2026 release for the successor. I know people don’t want to accept this bc Switch will be archaic by then, but again Nintendo just really doesn’t care about that when it’s selling like crazy still. All of the signs for a 9ish year life span for Switch are there:



siebensus4 said:
VAMatt said:

There is absolutely zero chance that we're seeing a new Switch in May of this year. There would have been far more info leaked by this point. There has been almost no real information about the next Nintendo system, which means it is not in the hands of developers yet, which means it is not launching in 4 months. 

Keep in mind that Nintendo denied new hardware at E3 2019 (June), announced Switch Lite at July 10th 2019 and released it 2 months later September 20th 2019.

The same with Switch OLED model. Announced July 6th and released 3 months later October 8th 2021.

So if we see a new model, it should be announced 2 or 3 months before the release. Zelda TOTK releases May 12th. So there could be an annoucement in February or March this year without a lot of rumors ahead.

If you mean a minor revision to the existing Switch then sure, that's possible (I'd still bet against it, given market and supply chain conditions). I thought we were talking about a Switch successor. 



At first like most people, I was thinking late 2024. However, as more time passes I get a stronger and stronger belief that the successor will release 2025. I feel like if the Switch 2 were to launch next year in 2024 we'd at least see a few signs that it's on the horizon like rumors/leaks, maybe a cryptic statement from Nintendo hinting at its release soon or a Codename for the next console, or the lineup of games beginning to slow down to smaller titles. But it's now 2023 and we still haven't seen any of those signs, and if anything the few leaks we've been getting regarding Nintendo & the Switch only points towards the Switch having a longer lifespan with the Bloomberg report showing that production may BOOST for the Switch.

Nintendo also hasn't even hinted at the successor coming soon not even once, and typically Nintendo announces the existence of their successor 1-3 years before it actually launches. Nintendo announced the existence of the SNES 3 Years before launch, announced the N64 2.5 Years before launch, announced the Gamecube 2 years before launch, the Wii 2.5 years, the Wii U around 1.5 Years, 3DS & DS took 1 year, the Switch took 2 years.

So if the Switch 2 were to launch in 2024, we should begin to hear Nintendo unveil its existence relatively soon since we're only 1 Year away from 2024, which is considered the minimum timeframe Nintendo takes to announce then release the system, and I highly doubt Nintendo's gonna do that in 2023 since of course a huge game Zelda TOTK is releasing and would likely want all the attention focused on that game. Compounded by the fact that rumors are pointing toward increasing Switch production in 2023 and nothing about a successor coming soon, gives me a strong impression we won't see the Switch 2 release til at least 2025.

IMO there's no way that we get a Switch 2 release in Q1 2024, Nintendo won't release a game as huge as TOTK then out of nowhere attempt to market the Switch 2, if it were releasing Q1 2024 we'd at least hear something from Nintendo rn. The absolute earliest in holiday 2024 but even that is looking less likely at this point. I voted Q1 2025 but could easily see the Switch releasing even later.