We also need to look at Nintendo’s software cycle here. Games take a long time to make these days. We are getting new mainline Zelda this year and I’d say extremely likely new mainline Mario too given the hype the movie will create. That means we can expect 3 years from now at the very soonest before we get new mainline iterations of those games, if not more like 5 years. Keep in mind that Nintendo has always had new mainline Mario ready for the first year of the console as well. Nintendo is not launching a new system in 2024 and then not having any new mainline 3D Mario or Zelda ready until 2026 or 2027. That would be suicide for them,
Now I do think it’s possible they could have two teams working on a new Switch Mario for release this year and the next Gen one, but even still I’d say no sooner than 2026 for another mainline one if we get one this year. We also just got new Pokémon, so pencil in 2025 at the soonest for Gen X as well, but I think they will ride it out longer this time after all of the backlash for gen 9 games being so rushed in dev.
All of this to say, Nintendo’s software cadence is honestly lining up very much with something like a 2026 release for the successor. I know people don’t want to accept this bc Switch will be archaic by then, but again Nintendo just really doesn’t care about that when it’s selling like crazy still. All of the signs for a 9ish year life span for Switch are there: