At first like most people, I was thinking late 2024. However, as more time passes I get a stronger and stronger belief that the successor will release 2025. I feel like if the Switch 2 were to launch next year in 2024 we'd at least see a few signs that it's on the horizon like rumors/leaks, maybe a cryptic statement from Nintendo hinting at its release soon or a Codename for the next console, or the lineup of games beginning to slow down to smaller titles. But it's now 2023 and we still haven't seen any of those signs, and if anything the few leaks we've been getting regarding Nintendo & the Switch only points towards the Switch having a longer lifespan with the Bloomberg report showing that production may BOOST for the Switch.
Nintendo also hasn't even hinted at the successor coming soon not even once, and typically Nintendo announces the existence of their successor 1-3 years before it actually launches. Nintendo announced the existence of the SNES 3 Years before launch, announced the N64 2.5 Years before launch, announced the Gamecube 2 years before launch, the Wii 2.5 years, the Wii U around 1.5 Years, 3DS & DS took 1 year, the Switch took 2 years.
So if the Switch 2 were to launch in 2024, we should begin to hear Nintendo unveil its existence relatively soon since we're only 1 Year away from 2024, which is considered the minimum timeframe Nintendo takes to announce then release the system, and I highly doubt Nintendo's gonna do that in 2023 since of course a huge game Zelda TOTK is releasing and would likely want all the attention focused on that game. Compounded by the fact that rumors are pointing toward increasing Switch production in 2023 and nothing about a successor coming soon, gives me a strong impression we won't see the Switch 2 release til at least 2025.
IMO there's no way that we get a Switch 2 release in Q1 2024, Nintendo won't release a game as huge as TOTK then out of nowhere attempt to market the Switch 2, if it were releasing Q1 2024 we'd at least hear something from Nintendo rn. The absolute earliest in holiday 2024 but even that is looking less likely at this point. I voted Q1 2025 but could easily see the Switch releasing even later.