Keep in mind that Nintendo denied new hardware at E3 2019 (June), announced Switch Lite at July 10th 2019 and released it 2 months later September 20th 2019.
The same with Switch OLED model. Announced July 6th and released 3 months later October 8th 2021.
So if we see a new model, it should be announced 2 or 3 months before the release. Zelda TOTK releases May 12th. So there could be an annoucement in February or March this year without a lot of rumors ahead.
Keep in mind that there were tons of leaks before those launches which told us that something was coming.
That hasn't happened with the Switch successor yet.
Exactly this too. Every next gen console for the last several gens have been preceded by a solid 18 months at the very least of leaks surfacing, if not more like 2 years. The fact that the leak/rumor mill for the successor has yet to really start at all is just more confirmation we are at least 2 years out from a successor