Wman1996 said:
@HyrulianScrolls
I agree with @super_etecoon on the lifespan interpretation. While it's true that Nintendo saying the Switch was in the middle of its lifespan in 2021 could mean a successor is a long way off, their statement is too vague. And middle does not mean 50 percent, at least not entirely. The Switch 2 could release at any point in 2024 and Nintendo's statement is still true. The Switch will almost surely stay in production a bare minimum of a year after its successor launches. It will probably even be more like 3-5 years.
The Switch 2 could launch in Q3/Q4 2023, and the middle of life comment would still be true.
A piece of hardware's lifespan is almost always longer than the time from its launch to its successor's launch. The Wii U is one of the few exceptions. It was discontinued on January 31, 2017. That's a little over a month before Switch launched. The GameCube also had a pretty short lifespan. Not as short as the Wii U, but it nevertheless was discontinued in February 2007. (about 3 months after the launch of the Wii).
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This would be an understandable interpretation if we were talking MS or Sony. But this is Nintendo. When they release a new system, they are done with supporting the old one very very soon after (if not immediately). Maybe Switch would break that mold, but it would set a new precedent for them if so. And I don’t think so because Nintendo needs the successor to sell after such a huge install base on Switch, so they are not gonna wanna have cross gen cut into that for them. Hence, I think we can interpret middle of the “life cycle” from them as the time they are supporting the Switch with big new software, otherwise known as until the successor comes out.
Most important of all though, 2025 or 2026 is what makes the most sense when you look at the sales trajectory. Any sooner and they are cutting off massive easy money from Switch they could otherwise have, and why on Earth would they do that?
Last edited by HyrulianScrolls - on 20 January 2023
