super_etecoon said:
The Playstation 2 sold from 1999-2013, a 14 year lifespan. Half way through its cycle is 2007, a year after the Playstation 3's launch. The Switch will continue to sell after the release of the Switch 2, whether as a heavily discounted console or as a more dedicated handheld side of Nintendo's strategy. But just because Nintendo has told us something is in the middle, doesn't make it so. And the middle, like let's say of an orange, is quite a bit, so it kind of depends on what you mean by middle if you consider the rind the beginning and end. Marketspeak is marketspeak and corporate PR shouldn't be held up as gospel. You may be correct, but I think sales are a better metric to use for predictions. That's also why I think half of YouTube creators had lost their minds when in 2020 and 2021 so many were calling for the successor to release in 2022 or 2023. It's like these folks don't even bother to visit VGC or look at the data themselves to notice the jaw dropping figures Nintendo was putting down in 2020 and 2021, and even 2022 ended up being a banner year historically speaking for the Switch. |
At least make the effort to click on a link and read the actual statement. Furukawa is refering to the timeframe from launch until replacement, not launch until discontinuation. It's also consistent with his statements from the years before. In early 2020 he said that Switch had just entered the middle of its lifecycle and talked about defying the usual length of lifecycles for Nintendo consoles (the usual would be six years). So when he says "mid-point" in early 2022, you've got the answer to your orange question: The middle ranges roughly from early 2020 all throughout 2023.
I remember it all too well when Furukawa's statement from early 2020 was purposefully misinterpreted to mean that Switch would have six years until replacement, but now three years later when we are about to reach that date, there's zero sight of a Switch successor. That's why "entered the middle of its lifecycle" (in 2020) is a credible statement and why "mid-point" (in 2022) is credible as well. It's also not corporate PR, because these were direct answers to investors where it isn't about earning goodwill from fans, but about money.
When you combine the three important factors - what Nintendo says in financial calls, how much Switch sells, how does Nintendo's first party lineup look like - you get the most accurate picture of what's likely going to happen. And that is Nintendo aiming for 8-10 years of Switch before launching its successor. 2023's success or lack thereof will be crucial to how far Nintendo can stretch this lifecycle, but it has long been laid out in the open that Nintendo wants to exceed the conventional length of a lifecycle, and not just by a few months.
Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.
