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Forums - Sales Discussion - The PlayStation 5 shipped 25.0m units by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

The PlayStation 5 shipped 25.0m units by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 70 million 45 5.74%
 
70.0 - 79.9 million 21 2.68%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million 57 7.27%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million 115 14.67%
 
100.0 - 109.9 million 226 28.83%
 
110.0 - 119.9 million 138 17.60%
 
120.0 - 129.9 million 90 11.48%
 
130.0 - 139.9 million 30 3.83%
 
140.0 - 150.0 million 9 1.15%
 
More than 150 million 53 6.76%
 
Total:784

With 3M stock + 6.5 new production they should get close to 10M shipped this Q4 putting them at 35M. Supply constraints are coming to an end so at the end of 2023 they should be well into the 50s if not over 60. I think 100M is seriously lowballing it and I’m betting on 120M something for the moment. I was expecting a stronger Xbox this gen to have more effect on PS sales but that doesn’t really seem to be happening. But I still think Xbox will rival 360 numbers so I instead expect a significant growth of the HD console market this gen.



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BonfiresDown said:

With 3M stock + 6.5 new production they should get close to 10M shipped this Q4 putting them at 35M. Supply constraints are coming to an end so at the end of 2023 they should be well into the 50s if not over 60. I think 100M is seriously lowballing it and I’m betting on 120M something for the moment. I was expecting a stronger Xbox this gen to have more effect on PS sales but that doesn’t really seem to be happening. But I still think Xbox will rival 360 numbers so I instead expect a significant growth of the HD console market this gen.

There is absolutely no way that the PS5 makes up such a deficit in their numbers that they sell 35M or more consoles in 15 months. 60M by the end of 2023 is not going to happen. 

Also, you can't ship everything you produce instantly. Even if 6.5M PS5s are produced this quarter like last quarter, it's doubtful they would be able to ship all of those that same quarter. Yes, production is ramping up, but this last quarter was still 700k less than what the PS4 was able to ship in the same timeframe. You don't go from 700k less shipped to 1.1-1.6M over (PS4 sold 8.4M this quarter in 2015). 



Doctor_MG said:

There is absolutely no way that the PS5 makes up such a deficit in their numbers that they sell 35M or more consoles in 15 months. 60M by the end of 2023 is not going to happen. 

Also, you can't ship everything you produce instantly. Even if 6.5M PS5s are produced this quarter like last quarter, it's doubtful they would be able to ship all of those that same quarter. Yes, production is ramping up, but this last quarter was still 700k less than what the PS4 was able to ship in the same timeframe. You don't go from 700k less shipped to 1.1-1.6M over (PS4 sold 8.4M this quarter in 2015). 

I think you’re nitpicking. Even if they only sell 50M by the end of 2023, that’s halfway to 100M before the generation is halfway over and with massive supply constraints.



BonfiresDown said:

I think you’re nitpicking. Even if they only sell 50M by the end of 2023, that’s halfway to 100M before the generation is halfway over and with massive supply constraints.

I don't really see how I'm "nitpicking". I didn't say that the PS5 couldn't sell 120M+ (though I personally don't think it will). However, I am arguing the logic that you used to justify that viewpoint. 

Also, PS4 shipped 57.1M units as of December, 2016 and looks to be settling at 117M units. The halfway point timewise was essentially the halfway point for sales too. 



Doctor_MG said:

I don't really see how I'm "nitpicking". I didn't say that the PS5 couldn't sell 120M+ (though I personally don't think it will). However, I am arguing the logic that you used to justify that viewpoint. 

Also, PS4 shipped 57.1M units as of December, 2016 and looks to be settling at 117M units. The halfway point timewise was essentially the halfway point for sales too. 

I agree. PS5 have to enter in beast mode such as Switch did in the end of 2019, to be able to reach or pass those numbers in that timeframe.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 08 November 2022

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Less than 100M.



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Same thing I said last year.

90-110m.



What I think will end up making the biggest difference, will be XB Studios, new acquisitions included. They need at least a few releases to be absolute bangers, or they need many to be decent, to keep this sales pace up. If XB Studios keeps releasing games in anywhere near the shape of Halo Infinite, they're going to start seeing a considerable hardware decline as PS5 stock much improves. Just wait a while longer, we've got great games coming, won't be able to win over those interested in a Series, or with a Series console, near as long as it did with the XB One.

If XB comes up with enough good first party games in the next year or two, I don't see PS5 getting close to PS4 total sales. If those XB first party titles don't cut it, PS5 should be able to get relatively close to PS4. I'd say this would make about a 15 million sales difference for PS5, depending on how XB handles their first party output. That would basically mean PS5 sales somewhere between 100 - 115 million units sold no matter what I guess.



Doctor_MG said:
BonfiresDown said:

I think you’re nitpicking. Even if they only sell 50M by the end of 2023, that’s halfway to 100M before the generation is halfway over and with massive supply constraints.

I don't really see how I'm "nitpicking". I didn't say that the PS5 couldn't sell 120M+ (though I personally don't think it will). However, I am arguing the logic that you used to justify that viewpoint. 

Also, PS4 shipped 57.1M units as of December, 2016 and looks to be settling at 117M units. The halfway point timewise was essentially the halfway point for sales too. 

Thats because the ps4 averaged around 20m per year. Now sony is saying they aiming for 30m in a year. Even if they dont sell that 30 they belive they raised the floor of how many they can sell a year. Even if they go to 25m average even at a 7 year life again(wich i think will be more this gen) they should be confortably ahead of the ps4.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

ConservagameR said:

What I think will end up making the biggest difference, will be XB Studios, new acquisitions included. They need at least a few releases to be absolute bangers, or they need many to be decent, to keep this sales pace up. If XB Studios keeps releasing games in anywhere near the shape of Halo Infinite, they're going to start seeing a considerable hardware decline as PS5 stock much improves. Just wait a while longer, we've got great games coming, won't be able to win over those interested in a Series, or with a Series console, near as long as it did with the XB One.

If XB comes up with enough good first party games in the next year or two, I don't see PS5 getting close to PS4 total sales. If those XB first party titles don't cut it, PS5 should be able to get relatively close to PS4. I'd say this would make about a 15 million sales difference for PS5, depending on how XB handles their first party output. That would basically mean PS5 sales somewhere between 100 - 115 million units sold no matter what I guess.

Sort off. But its more on sonys first party output. Cus they are the market leader and have a big ps4 installbase that is itching to upgrade. The ps4 owners dont only have to be convinced that xbox is doing better but that they are better than sony if they are to jump ship.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.