By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - The PlayStation 5 shipped 25.0m units by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

The PlayStation 5 shipped 25.0m units by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 70 million 45 5.74%
 
70.0 - 79.9 million 21 2.68%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million 57 7.27%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million 115 14.67%
 
100.0 - 109.9 million 226 28.83%
 
110.0 - 119.9 million 138 17.60%
 
120.0 - 129.9 million 90 11.48%
 
130.0 - 139.9 million 30 3.83%
 
140.0 - 150.0 million 9 1.15%
 
More than 150 million 53 6.76%
 
Total:784

105-115m.
2023 and 2024 should be peak years for PS5 around 20m each year I'd say. That would put it at close to 75m by end of 2024 at just over 4 years in. It'll start slowing down then, also more competition as Switch 2 comes out in 2024 and likely becomes the hot new thing and PS5 is looked at as an old system.
If they do another mid-gen upgrade in say 2025 to keep it going longer and then replace PS5 holiday 2027 I could see it finishing up right around PS4's numbers, but if it gets replaced holiday 2026 then probably 105m.



Around the Network

I picked 100-110m for the third straight time, because nothing has seriously played out contrary to my original expectations of Xbox doing a bit better than last gen and therefore taking a bite out of PS's total this gen. The production shortages have made the PS5 sell a bit less than anticipated up to this point, but there's more than enough time to make up for it in the long run. Just as before, it remains highly unlikely that the PS5 will finish below 100m, so if the final tally doesn't fall into my predicted range, it's most certainly going to exceed it.

Microsoft's output of Xbox console exclusives has been bad up till now and their big acquisitions aren't likely to produce much of relevance as far as console sales are concerned. If the Activision acquisition goes through, Call of Duty will remain on PS for the whole gen. Bethesda may be able to get out one or two big games this gen, but even if they aren't coming to PS, that's not anywhere close to enough to put a bigger dent into PS sales. Basically, Xbox's biggest chance rests on how big of a deal Game Pass becomes, and how meaningful Sony's reaction will be. But Game Pass had already been factored into my original predictions for this gen and so far it's in line with what I had expected, meaning that there's no reason to up my Series X|S prediction either (60-70m range).

The biggest uncertainty is how long this gen's lifecycle will be. But even with an eighth year, the outlook isn't going to change dramatically. Meaning that both consoles would go up just one notch in these ranges.

...

A final note on the current poll: The early results suggest that PS5 expectations revert back to their pre-launch state with 100-110m being the most popular option again. People are too reactionary, I guess. A year ago the constant sellouts of the PS5 made people think that it's going to do notably better than originally thought, now the ongoing component shortages show a notable negative impact on the sales expectations. If the PS5 goes on to have a monster year, the whole thing will swing back.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

eva01beserk said:

Thats because the ps4 averaged around 20m per year. Now sony is saying they aiming for 30m in a year. Even if they dont sell that 30 they belive they raised the floor of how many they can sell a year. Even if they go to 25m average even at a 7 year life again(wich i think will be more this gen) they should be confortably ahead of the ps4.

A couple things wrong with this information. First, the PS4 didn't average anywhere close to 20M per year. 20M was their maximum in one year (2017 iirc). They probably averaged somewhere between 13-14M a year. Higher if you're cutting off the years after the PS5 launched, of course. 

Second, I'm pretty dang positive Sony never said anything about 30M. That is a rumor, and has yet to be confirmed. 



115 million, maybe a little bit more if Sony doesn't cut it's legs off when PS6 releases.



eva01beserk said:

Thats because the ps4 averaged around 20m per year. Now sony is saying they aiming for 30m in a year. Even if they dont sell that 30 they belive they raised the floor of how many they can sell a year. Even if they go to 25m average even at a 7 year life again(wich i think will be more this gen) they should be confortably ahead of the ps4.

20 million was PS4's peak, if we take the first 6 full years the average is about 17 million. If we take the first full 5 years the average is about 18 million.



Around the Network

Definitely under 80m. I voted under 70m though, because I think that is most likely.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

Definitely under 80m. I voted under 70m though, because I think that is most likely.

So 70 million PS5 and 60 million Series X/S.



eva01beserk said:
Doctor_MG said:

I don't really see how I'm "nitpicking". I didn't say that the PS5 couldn't sell 120M+ (though I personally don't think it will). However, I am arguing the logic that you used to justify that viewpoint. 

Also, PS4 shipped 57.1M units as of December, 2016 and looks to be settling at 117M units. The halfway point timewise was essentially the halfway point for sales too. 

Thats because the ps4 averaged around 20m per year. Now sony is saying they aiming for 30m in a year. Even if they dont sell that 30 they belive they raised the floor of how many they can sell a year. Even if they go to 25m average even at a 7 year life again(wich i think will be more this gen) they should be confortably ahead of the ps4.

20mil was the PS4's peak year, not it's average.



Definitely over 100mil. How much more I'm not sure yet. I voted for 110-120mil.



Voted 120-130M.

Not crazy... think this would be the first time we have a full 10 years before new consoles are released. Expect the slim consoles in 2023/2024... and the Pro consoles in 2024/2025.

At some point in the next 2-3 years, we would have a PS5 digital slim SKU that retails for around $199. Or $250 at the max... I can even see a PS5 SKU being sold as a PS+ Premium `locked`console. For $25/month on a 2-year contract.