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Forums - Sales Discussion - The PlayStation 5 shipped 25.0m units by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

The PlayStation 5 shipped 25.0m units by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 70 million 45 5.74%
 
70.0 - 79.9 million 21 2.68%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million 57 7.27%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million 115 14.67%
 
100.0 - 109.9 million 226 28.83%
 
110.0 - 119.9 million 138 17.60%
 
120.0 - 129.9 million 90 11.48%
 
130.0 - 139.9 million 30 3.83%
 
140.0 - 150.0 million 9 1.15%
 
More than 150 million 53 6.76%
 
Total:784
Intrinsic said:

At some point in the next 2-3 years, we would have a PS5 digital slim SKU that retails for around $199. Or $250 at the max... I can even see a PS5 SKU being sold as a PS+ Premium `locked`console. For $25/month on a 2-year contract.

That seems more than a bit optimistic. PS4 never dropped below $300 right? Far as we know the PS5 DE still isn’t breaking even and inflation has made it even more unlikely. We should see a drop to $400/300 in the coming years but with inflation I think even that is not guaranteed.



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BonfiresDown said:
Intrinsic said:

At some point in the next 2-3 years, we would have a PS5 digital slim SKU that retails for around $199. Or $250 at the max... I can even see a PS5 SKU being sold as a PS+ Premium `locked`console. For $25/month on a 2-year contract.

That seems more than a bit optimistic. PS4 never dropped below $300 right? Far as we know the PS5 DE still isn’t breaking even and inflation has made it even more unlikely. We should see a drop to $400/300 in the coming years but with inflation I think even that is not guaranteed.

He expects 10 years of console life. I guess in all that time it could be possible. 

And i dont think the ps4 dint drop because they wherent braking even but because they had no competition and dint need to drop prices. I would assume ps5 dropinf to $250 OR $300 would depent on if they get worried about anyone. Wich at the moment it dosent seem like it. 



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Kind of surprised that the most voted for answer in the poll is 100-109.9m. That seems low to me. Even with a much more competitive Xbox so far this gen (which will be even more competitive later in the gen thanks to acquisitions paying off), PS5 has still been nearly keeping pace with PS4 in spite of being severely supply constrained, and PS4 is at 117m lifetime. That indicates that once PS5 supply issues are fixed next year, PS5 will eventually pass PS4 launch aligned. On top of that, indications now point to this generation being at least 2 years longer than any previous Sony generation, as we recently heard that a PS5 Pro won't release until 2025, and I don't think that they will release a PS5 Pro less than 4 years before PS6 releases, which would put PS6 in 2029, a 9 year generation compared to 7 years for PS4.

I don't see a scenario where PS5 doesn't at least sell 130m lifetime personally, unless Xbox really starts cutting into their marketshare later in the generation thanks to the Bethesda and Activision-Blizzard acquisitions (as well as other, yet to be announced acquisitions). But with most Activision-Blizzard games looking like they will stay on PS at least for the remainder of this generation (if not longer), I don't see that happening. I would definitely estimate PS5 at 130-139.9m currently. I see this being a generation of growth for the premium console market, with Xbox + Playstation not only crossing the 200m combined mark for the first time ever, but also passing 220m combined. Why do I think that? Well, not only will this gen be longer than either gen 7 or gen 8, but owning both premium consoles will soon be more important than ever due Xbox's and Sony's 1st party growth. Alot more people are going to want both consoles in order to play exclusives on both platforms. 

Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 11 November 2022

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BonfiresDown said:
Intrinsic said:

At some point in the next 2-3 years, we would have a PS5 digital slim SKU that retails for around $199. Or $250 at the max... I can even see a PS5 SKU being sold as a PS+ Premium `locked`console. For $25/month on a 2-year contract.

That seems more than a bit optimistic. PS4 never dropped below $300 right? Far as we know the PS5 DE still isn’t breaking even and inflation has made it even more unlikely. We should see a drop to $400/300 in the coming years but with inflation I think even that is not guaranteed.

  1. PS4 not dropping to $200 was definitely not a BOM issue. It was a demand issue. Why drop to $200 if you are selling as well as they were at $300. ranted, the same could even happen to the PS5. When the digital SKU inevitably drops to $300, if sales remain consistently high it may not see a drop to $200 anytime soon.
  2. Don't forget the digital version doesn't have a disc drive. Granted, that amounts to only like $30 in BOM savings. But I think coupled with the new PS+ tiers, we can start to see some PS+ `consoles` being sold. MS already does this with gamepass.
  3. Lastly, I agree that it may seem somewhat optimistic, but only with regard to the timing... I do expect it to be 10 years between the launch of the PS5 and that of the PS6. Not a chance that in2026, the PS5digital cost sony more than $200 to make.
  4. You are right about inflation though, forgot that especially considering that for the first-time ver we are even see price increases not reductions. Maybe you can just tack on $50 to all my expected reduced prices.


I predict 120-130m. Longer generation and gta6 will push ps5 ahead of ps4. If gta6 releases before 2026, Ps5 will avg 20m the next 4 years that would put ps5 at around 110m. Then there would be at least another 2 years before ps6 releases



shikamaru317 said:

Kind of surprised that the most voted for answer in the poll is 100-109.9m. That seems low to me. Even with a much more competitive Xbox so far this gen (which will be even more competitive later in the gen thanks to acquisitions paying off), PS5 has still been nearly keeping pace with PS4 in spite of being severely supply constrained, and PS4 is at 117m lifetime. That indicates that once PS5 supply issues are fixed next year, PS5 will eventually pass PS4 launch aligned. On top of that, indications now point to this generation being at least 2 years longer than any previous Sony generation, as we recently heard that a PS5 Pro won't release until 2025, and I don't think that they will release a PS5 Pro less than 4 years before PS6 releases, which would put PS6 in 2029, a 9 year generation compared to 7 years for PS4.

I don't see a scenario where PS5 doesn't at least sell 130m lifetime personally, unless Xbox really starts cutting into their marketshare later in the generation thanks to the Bethesda and Activision-Blizzard acquisitions (as well as other, yet to be announced acquisitions). But with most Activision-Blizzard games looking like they will stay on PS at least for the remainder of this generation (if not longer), I don't see that happening. I would definitely estimate PS5 at 130-139.9m currently. I see this being a generation of growth for the premium console market, with Xbox + Playstation not only crossing the 200m combined mark for the first time ever, but also passing 220m combined. Why do I think that? Well, not only will this gen be longer than either gen 7 or gen 8, but owning both premium consoles will soon be more important than ever due Xbox's and Sony's 1st party growth. Alot more people are going to want both consoles in order to play exclusives on both platforms. 

I agree. I don't see why people believe there is some fixed 170M something market for HD consoles that can't increase. In fact if Xbox had been more attractive last gen I reckon it would have increased. It's not only the same now grown up gamers who bought the PS2 and 360 buying current consoles. New people enter the market all the time, they have just been disproportionally in the mobile and PC spaces. But that can change. Especially since building a high end PC is becoming prohibitively expensive 



Software sales for PS5 seems to be consistently slow, it appears gamers aren't playing on the PS5 as much as they did on the PS4, this may affect long term sales of hardware, I'm thinking in the 90 to 100 range



Rab said:

Software sales for PS5 seems to be consistently slow, it appears gamers aren't playing on the PS5 as much as they did on the PS4, this may affect long term sales of hardware, I'm thinking in the 90 to 100 range

What are you basing this on? All evidence points to the opposite (launch aligned revenue, profits, subscribers, software sales etc for Playstation are much higher now than PS4's early days). It's also confirmed early on that engagements/spending levels on PS5 were MUCH higher than PS4, but that was before production levels hit a new low (2021 Q4 and 2022 Q1), and we don't have updates regarding PS5 individually since then.

The first 10 million+ selling exclusive on PS4 landed about 2.5 years after launch (Uncharted 4). PS5 already has 4 or 5 platform exclusives that will pass 10 million each quite easily. Software sales only declined when compared to late stage PS4 sales, which is normal and expected in the context of shortage. Otherwise launch aligned, Playstation is doing a lot better now overall.

Do you have any software data on PS4's first couple of years?