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Forums - Sales Discussion - The PlayStation 5 shipped 25.0m units by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

The PlayStation 5 shipped 25.0m units by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 70 million 45 5.74%
 
70.0 - 79.9 million 21 2.68%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million 57 7.27%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million 115 14.67%
 
100.0 - 109.9 million 226 28.83%
 
110.0 - 119.9 million 138 17.60%
 
120.0 - 129.9 million 90 11.48%
 
130.0 - 139.9 million 30 3.83%
 
140.0 - 150.0 million 9 1.15%
 
More than 150 million 53 6.76%
 
Total:784
Rab said:

Software sales for PS5 seems to be consistently slow, it appears gamers aren't playing on the PS5 as much as they did on the PS4, this may affect long term sales of hardware, I'm thinking in the 90 to 100 range

I disagree. Software sales for PS5 seems pretty normal for its age/ install base. On the other hand, I think the PS4 died too fast. If the PS4 had a normal post successor life, then I think the software trend would be more normal. This is the continued result of stock shortages.



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Kyuu said:
Rab said:

Software sales for PS5 seems to be consistently slow, it appears gamers aren't playing on the PS5 as much as they did on the PS4, this may affect long term sales of hardware, I'm thinking in the 90 to 100 range

What are you basing this on? All evidence points to the opposite (launch aligned revenue, profits, subscribers, software sales etc for Playstation are much higher now than PS4's early days). It's also confirmed early on that engagements/spending levels on PS5 were MUCH higher than PS4, but that was before production levels hit a new low (2021 Q4 and 2022 Q1), and we don't have updates regarding PS5 individually since then.

The first 10 million+ selling exclusive on PS4 landed about 2.5 years after launch (Uncharted 4). PS5 already has 4 or 5 platform exclusives that will pass 10 million each quite easily. Software sales only declined when compared to late stage PS4 sales, which is normal and expected in the context of shortage. Otherwise launch aligned, Playstation is doing a lot better now overall.

Do you have any software data on PS4's first couple of years?

Yeah, profit is higher, but software sales are lower. The profit is based on MTX, DLCs, and services, and Sony stops dropping your videogames prices aggressively. 

Japanese market seems to demonstrate the beginning of the transition, more towards services, games online with MTX, DLC, etc. Fewer software sales, but profits is rising. Excellent. 

Last edited by Agente42 - on 19 November 2022

Kyuu said:
Rab said:

Software sales for PS5 seems to be consistently slow, it appears gamers aren't playing on the PS5 as much as they did on the PS4, this may affect long term sales of hardware, I'm thinking in the 90 to 100 range

What are you basing this on? All evidence points to the opposite (launch aligned revenue, profits, subscribers, software sales etc for Playstation are much higher now than PS4's early days). It's also confirmed early on that engagements/spending levels on PS5 were MUCH higher than PS4, but that was before production levels hit a new low (2021 Q4 and 2022 Q1), and we don't have updates regarding PS5 individually since then.

The first 10 million+ selling exclusive on PS4 landed about 2.5 years after launch (Uncharted 4). PS5 already has 4 or 5 platform exclusives that will pass 10 million each quite easily. Software sales only declined when compared to late stage PS4 sales, which is normal and expected in the context of shortage. Otherwise launch aligned, Playstation is doing a lot better now overall.

Do you have any software data on PS4's first couple of years?

The base (for a lot of users in this site) is the Japanese physical market, as they don’t believe the digital market saw growth in that market too.

And we went from Globally in the US to Globally in Japan, even tho, the PS4 sold 1.5+ billion games outside Japan.



Agente42 said:
Kyuu said:

What are you basing this on? All evidence points to the opposite (launch aligned revenue, profits, subscribers, software sales etc for Playstation are much higher now than PS4's early days). It's also confirmed early on that engagements/spending levels on PS5 were MUCH higher than PS4, but that was before production levels hit a new low (2021 Q4 and 2022 Q1), and we don't have updates regarding PS5 individually since then.

The first 10 million+ selling exclusive on PS4 landed about 2.5 years after launch (Uncharted 4). PS5 already has 4 or 5 platform exclusives that will pass 10 million each quite easily. Software sales only declined when compared to late stage PS4 sales, which is normal and expected in the context of shortage. Otherwise launch aligned, Playstation is doing a lot better now overall.

Do you have any software data on PS4's first couple of years?

Yeah, profit is higher, but software sales are lower. The profit is based on MTX, DLCs, and services, and Sony stops dropping your videogames prices aggressively. 

Japanese market seems to demonstrate the beginning of the transition, more towards services, games online with MTX, DLC, etc. Fewer software sales, but profits is rising. Excellent. 

Sony categorized things differently until FY2015 or 2016 when they shifted to the current model. Their combined "software sales" across all platforms (PS3, PS4, PSP, Vita) hit 460 million in FY2014 (where they sold a combined 21.2 million hardware, vs PS4+PS5's 12.5 million units (production capped) in FY2021).

In FY2015/16~ their report stopped accounting for PS3, PSP, and Vita software numbers because a) they were irrelevant and b) they shifted to reporting "full game software". This resulted in reported software sales to decline all the way from 460 million FY2014 down to 158.7 million in FY2015. The old "software sales" figures likely counted DLC as individual sales, as opposed to only "full game software". For those reasons among others, it's impossible to make an accurate like for like comparison between PS5 and PS4's early years. It's reasonable to assume PS4 software is slightly or moderately ahead launch aligned due to its larger install base and quicker generational transition (in engagement and "NextGen-ness") but it's by no means a fact. Overall, Playstation is in a stronger position now than early PS4 days, and it should see a massive growth in FY2023 provided the economical mess won't be affecting gaming too much.

Last edited by Kyuu - on 20 November 2022

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Definitely under 80m. I voted under 70m though, because I think that is most likely.

How is it gonna sell less than the PS3?  It will probably be over 50 million by end of FY 2023.  What's gonna happen between them and FY2027 to suddenly and completely collapse sales by 75%?  Are you predicting a super pandemic?



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129 million. I am very confident in my prediction, if... we don't see a catastrophic economic downturn.



CosmicSex said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Definitely under 80m. I voted under 70m though, because I think that is most likely.

How is it gonna sell less than the PS3?  It will probably be over 50 million by end of FY 2023.  What's gonna happen between them and FY2027 to suddenly and completely collapse sales by 75%?  Are you predicting a super pandemic?

It will definitely not be over 50m by the end of 2023.  PS5 will sell less in 2023 than it will sell in 2022.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
CosmicSex said:

How is it gonna sell less than the PS3?  It will probably be over 50 million by end of FY 2023.  What's gonna happen between them and FY2027 to suddenly and completely collapse sales by 75%?  Are you predicting a super pandemic?

It will definitely not be over 50m by the end of 2023.  PS5 will sell less in 2023 than it will sell in 2022.

Stop trolling dude.



Kakadu18 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

It will definitely not be over 50m by the end of 2023.  PS5 will sell less in 2023 than it will sell in 2022.

Stop trolling dude.

I actually hope he keeps it up since I'm curious what'll be said after it's up massively for the first half of the year.



Norion said:
Kakadu18 said:

Stop trolling dude.

I actually hope he keeps it up since I'm curious what'll be said after it's up massively for the first half of the year.

I'm curious too, sales trend indicate increase, not otherwise. 2023 selling more 2022 is a given, the question is how much more