| shikamaru317 said: Kind of surprised that the most voted for answer in the poll is 100-109.9m. That seems low to me. Even with a much more competitive Xbox so far this gen (which will be even more competitive later in the gen thanks to acquisitions paying off), PS5 has still been nearly keeping pace with PS4 in spite of being severely supply constrained, and PS4 is at 117m lifetime. That indicates that once PS5 supply issues are fixed next year, PS5 will eventually pass PS4 launch aligned. On top of that, indications now point to this generation being at least 2 years longer than any previous Sony generation, as we recently heard that a PS5 Pro won't release until 2025, and I don't think that they will release a PS5 Pro less than 4 years before PS6 releases, which would put PS6 in 2029, a 9 year generation compared to 7 years for PS4. I don't see a scenario where PS5 doesn't at least sell 130m lifetime personally, unless Xbox really starts cutting into their marketshare later in the generation thanks to the Bethesda and Activision-Blizzard acquisitions (as well as other, yet to be announced acquisitions). But with most Activision-Blizzard games looking like they will stay on PS at least for the remainder of this generation (if not longer), I don't see that happening. I would definitely estimate PS5 at 130-139.9m currently. I see this being a generation of growth for the premium console market, with Xbox + Playstation not only crossing the 200m combined mark for the first time ever, but also passing 220m combined. Why do I think that? Well, not only will this gen be longer than either gen 7 or gen 8, but owning both premium consoles will soon be more important than ever due Xbox's and Sony's 1st party growth. Alot more people are going to want both consoles in order to play exclusives on both platforms. |
I agree. I don't see why people believe there is some fixed 170M something market for HD consoles that can't increase. In fact if Xbox had been more attractive last gen I reckon it would have increased. It's not only the same now grown up gamers who bought the PS2 and 360 buying current consoles. New people enter the market all the time, they have just been disproportionally in the mobile and PC spaces. But that can change. Especially since building a high end PC is becoming prohibitively expensive
