I picked 100-110m for the third straight time, because nothing has seriously played out contrary to my original expectations of Xbox doing a bit better than last gen and therefore taking a bite out of PS's total this gen. The production shortages have made the PS5 sell a bit less than anticipated up to this point, but there's more than enough time to make up for it in the long run. Just as before, it remains highly unlikely that the PS5 will finish below 100m, so if the final tally doesn't fall into my predicted range, it's most certainly going to exceed it.
Microsoft's output of Xbox console exclusives has been bad up till now and their big acquisitions aren't likely to produce much of relevance as far as console sales are concerned. If the Activision acquisition goes through, Call of Duty will remain on PS for the whole gen. Bethesda may be able to get out one or two big games this gen, but even if they aren't coming to PS, that's not anywhere close to enough to put a bigger dent into PS sales. Basically, Xbox's biggest chance rests on how big of a deal Game Pass becomes, and how meaningful Sony's reaction will be. But Game Pass had already been factored into my original predictions for this gen and so far it's in line with what I had expected, meaning that there's no reason to up my Series X|S prediction either (60-70m range).
The biggest uncertainty is how long this gen's lifecycle will be. But even with an eighth year, the outlook isn't going to change dramatically. Meaning that both consoles would go up just one notch in these ranges.
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A final note on the current poll: The early results suggest that PS5 expectations revert back to their pre-launch state with 100-110m being the most popular option again. People are too reactionary, I guess. A year ago the constant sellouts of the PS5 made people think that it's going to do notably better than originally thought, now the ongoing component shortages show a notable negative impact on the sales expectations. If the PS5 goes on to have a monster year, the whole thing will swing back.
Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.
