By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 27, 2022 (Jun 27 - Jul 03)

The_Liquid_Laser said:

VGChartz has Japan + RoW totals for PS4 at around 33m.  I think this total for PS5 will be under 17m.  I don't know the exact split between Japan and RoW, because of scalping, but I do know that PS5 sales in Japan translate to lost PS5 sales in RoW.  I think 50% of PS4 sales in Japan + RoW is the best the PS5 can do.

I don't have a figure for ROW but I do expect the growth in China to partially offset declines in other markets. 



Around the Network
The_Liquid_Laser said:

VGChartz has Japan + RoW totals for PS4 at around 33m.  I think this total for PS5 will be under 17m.  I don't know the exact split between Japan and RoW, because of scalping, but I do know that PS5 sales in Japan translate to lost PS5 sales in RoW.  I think 50% of PS4 sales in Japan + RoW is the best the PS5 can do.

It's already at about 5m in those combined and should be over 7m by the end of this year so I don't see how it could fail to do another 10m in the next few years after doing 7m in just two.



TheBraveGallade said:
Kai_Mao said:

My only concern regarding the Switch successor is that even if it has all the features core fans want out of it (i.e., more power, better online, etc.), I don’t see how third party companies will all of a sudden bring those AAA games to the successor. Like will we see FFXVI or FFVIIRebirth on a Switch successor that can run those titles? I doubt it personally. Same with Street Fighter VI or Resident Evil 9 or 4 Remake.

Even with all the good will Switch has and the hardware and software sales being extraordinary, I have some doubt that third party companies will invest in AAA games on the Switch successor, that has all the hardware features we hope for, on the regular.

I have some doubt because the Switch doesn’t even have games King of Fighters XV or Soul Calibur VI (games I think can run on Switch), but then somehow has Persona 5 Royal and Nier Automata coming soon (games people believe were gonna run like crap on Switch).

people thought P5R was going to run crap on switch when its basically a DLC version of base P5? really? when P5 ran on and was made for the PS3?

Funny enough, there were a minority of people who thought that because P5R did enhance the graphics and such. I didn’t agree with that but it was a reason for the few since it’s been three years since Royal came out. Maybe SMT V performing the way it did on Switch sorta added fuel to that fire even though both games were on different engines I believe.. Plus they missed out on the opportunity to take advantage of the hype of Joker being in Smash Bros., whether you believe that would’ve made a difference or not to get P5 on Switch.



Wyrdness said:
Kai_Mao said:

My only concern regarding the Switch successor is that even if it has all the features core fans want out of it (i.e., more power, better online, etc.), I don’t see how third party companies will all of a sudden bring those AAA games to the successor. Like will we see FFXVI or FFVIIRebirth on a Switch successor that can run those titles? I doubt it personally. Same with Street Fighter VI or Resident Evil 9 or 4 Remake.

Even with all the good will Switch has and the hardware and software sales being extraordinary, I have some doubt that third party companies will invest in AAA games on the Switch successor, that has all the hardware features we hope for, on the regular.

I have some doubt because the Switch doesn’t even have games King of Fighters XV or Soul Calibur VI (games I think can run on Switch), but then somehow has Persona 5 Royal and Nier Automata coming soon (games people believe were gonna run like crap on Switch).

The Switch itself already debunks this argument as the library is full of games that many claimed would not be on it years ago even if it did find success, this is because the momentum is too high for developers to ignore and development costs are constantly increasing.

It will be easier to port to the Switch successor than it is to the Switch, FF is a poor example as its not even on the Xbox signalling a possible deal being in place. SFVI, RE however are likely going to find their way on the platform all the Remakes will be on the platform for sure.

I’m not holding my breath for SFVI considering how important the tournament circuit is for the series and how Capcom developed SFV (though I’m not sure if Sony paid for full console exclusivity so it wouldn’t ever come to Xbox). Plus Capcom didn’t even care to port SFIV on Switch, even though it got a late port on PS4.

Even games like Soul Hackers 2 is not coming to Switch (at this time). As I mentioned before, the SMT V performance on Switch (in terms of how it ran, not it’s sales) might’ve made some nervous about Soul Hackers 2 on Switch.

Again, I point out certain games that could’ve/should’ve made it to Switch but didn’t for one reason or another. I even doubt the next Tekken or Tales of game will come to the Switch successor when they get announced eventually. The mix results of incredible ports and missed opportunities sorta cloud my perception on how third parties will proceed with a more powerful Switch successor.



Norion said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

VGChartz has Japan + RoW totals for PS4 at around 33m.  I think this total for PS5 will be under 17m.  I don't know the exact split between Japan and RoW, because of scalping, but I do know that PS5 sales in Japan translate to lost PS5 sales in RoW.  I think 50% of PS4 sales in Japan + RoW is the best the PS5 can do.

It's already at about 5m in those combined and should be over 7m by the end of this year so I don't see how it could fail to do another 10m in the next few years after doing 7m in just two.

2 years of being highly supply constrained too



Around the Network
Otter said:
Norion said:

It's already at about 5m in those combined and should be over 7m by the end of this year so I don't see how it could fail to do another 10m in the next few years after doing 7m in just two.

2 years of being highly supply constrained too

Yep so the pace should pick up in 2023-2024 compared to 2021-2022. Even if the PS5 only did Vita level sales in Japan it would still most likely exceed 20m combined with RoW since the PS3 managed a bit over 16m in the latter.



Kai_Mao said:
Wyrdness said:

The Switch itself already debunks this argument as the library is full of games that many claimed would not be on it years ago even if it did find success, this is because the momentum is too high for developers to ignore and development costs are constantly increasing.

It will be easier to port to the Switch successor than it is to the Switch, FF is a poor example as its not even on the Xbox signalling a possible deal being in place. SFVI, RE however are likely going to find their way on the platform all the Remakes will be on the platform for sure.

I’m not holding my breath for SFVI considering how important the tournament circuit is for the series and how Capcom developed SFV (though I’m not sure if Sony paid for full console exclusivity so it wouldn’t ever come to Xbox). Plus Capcom didn’t even care to port SFIV on Switch, even though it got a late port on PS4.

Even games like Soul Hackers 2 is not coming to Switch (at this time). As I mentioned before, the SMT V performance on Switch (in terms of how it ran, not it’s sales) might’ve made some nervous about Soul Hackers 2 on Switch.

Again, I point out certain games that could’ve/should’ve made it to Switch but didn’t for one reason or another. I even doubt the next Tekken or Tales of game will come to the Switch successor when they get announced eventually. The mix results of incredible ports and missed opportunities sorta cloud my perception on how third parties will proceed with a more powerful Switch successor.

PS4 got a port of SF4 at its launch which is around four years before Switch even launched hardly a good example, Soul Hackers may not at the moment be on the platform but a bigger series in mainline Persona is signalling things going forward. You forget that the Switch was a platform many wrote off, the reason you're seeing it get the library it has is because developers are having a harder time ignoring it due to the success and the same will go for the successor we aren't in the era of developers going by their own preferences anymore look at Falcom for one they don't want to do games for any Nintendo platform but business forces it.

Tekken is big enough to maybe skip the platform but games like Tales will have a harder time doing so if anything it will be one of two things where the next game is on the successor or it gets a ground up game of its own much like what happened on the Wii with graces. 



Kai_Mao said:
Wyrdness said:

The Switch itself already debunks this argument as the library is full of games that many claimed would not be on it years ago even if it did find success, this is because the momentum is too high for developers to ignore and development costs are constantly increasing.

It will be easier to port to the Switch successor than it is to the Switch, FF is a poor example as its not even on the Xbox signalling a possible deal being in place. SFVI, RE however are likely going to find their way on the platform all the Remakes will be on the platform for sure.

I’m not holding my breath for SFVI considering how important the tournament circuit is for the series and how Capcom developed SFV (though I’m not sure if Sony paid for full console exclusivity so it wouldn’t ever come to Xbox). Plus Capcom didn’t even care to port SFIV on Switch, even though it got a late port on PS4.

Even games like Soul Hackers 2 is not coming to Switch (at this time). As I mentioned before, the SMT V performance on Switch (in terms of how it ran, not it’s sales) might’ve made some nervous about Soul Hackers 2 on Switch.

Again, I point out certain games that could’ve/should’ve made it to Switch but didn’t for one reason or another. I even doubt the next Tekken or Tales of game will come to the Switch successor when they get announced eventually. The mix results of incredible ports and missed opportunities sorta cloud my perception on how third parties will proceed with a more powerful Switch successor.

The only reason PS4 got a port of SFIV is because of Sony. They were help funding the Capcom Pro Tour at the time and the PS4 was the official platform of the CPT because this. Sony didn't want SFIV events on a completing console (360) so they needed to have a version of SFIV for the platform. 



Norion said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

VGChartz has Japan + RoW totals for PS4 at around 33m.  I think this total for PS5 will be under 17m.  I don't know the exact split between Japan and RoW, because of scalping, but I do know that PS5 sales in Japan translate to lost PS5 sales in RoW.  I think 50% of PS4 sales in Japan + RoW is the best the PS5 can do.

It's already at about 5m in those combined and should be over 7m by the end of this year so I don't see how it could fail to do another 10m in the next few years after doing 7m in just two.

Your numbers assume that people in Japan and RoW want the PS5 as much as they want the PS4.  The reality is that they don't.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Norion said:

It's already at about 5m in those combined and should be over 7m by the end of this year so I don't see how it could fail to do another 10m in the next few years after doing 7m in just two.

Your numbers assume that people in Japan and RoW want the PS5 as much as they want the PS4.  The reality is that they don't.

No my numbers don't assume that since I think it's likely to fall behind the PS4 by a notable amount but not by about 50%. If you think a decline that big is possible in Japan + RoW could you post a yearly sales breakdown? I wonder what you expect yearly sales in those regions combined in 2023-2029 to be for them to not exceed 10m in that period.