2 years of being highly supply constrained too

I’m not holding my breath for SFVI considering how important the tournament circuit is for the series and how Capcom developed SFV (though I’m not sure if Sony paid for full console exclusivity so it wouldn’t ever come to Xbox). Plus Capcom didn’t even care to port SFIV on Switch, even though it got a late port on PS4.

Even games like Soul Hackers 2 is not coming to Switch (at this time). As I mentioned before, the SMT V performance on Switch (in terms of how it ran, not it’s sales) might’ve made some nervous about Soul Hackers 2 on Switch.

Again, I point out certain games that could’ve/should’ve made it to Switch but didn’t for one reason or another. I even doubt the next Tekken or Tales of game will come to the Switch successor when they get announced eventually. The mix results of incredible ports and missed opportunities sorta cloud my perception on how third parties will proceed with a more powerful Switch successor.

I’m not holding my breath for SFVI considering how important the tournament circuit is for the series and how Capcom developed SFV (though I’m not sure if Sony paid for full console exclusivity so it wouldn’t ever come to Xbox). Plus Capcom didn’t even care to port SFIV on Switch, even though it got a late port on PS4.

Even games like Soul Hackers 2 is not coming to Switch (at this time). As I mentioned before, the SMT V performance on Switch (in terms of how it ran, not it’s sales) might’ve made some nervous about Soul Hackers 2 on Switch.

Again, I point out certain games that could’ve/should’ve made it to Switch but didn’t for one reason or another. I even doubt the next Tekken or Tales of game will come to the Switch successor when they get announced eventually. The mix results of incredible ports and missed opportunities sorta cloud my perception on how third parties will proceed with a more powerful Switch successor.

It's already at about 5m in those combined and should be over 7m by the end of this year so I don't see how it could fail to do another 10m in the next few years after doing 7m in just two.

Your numbers assume that people in Japan and RoW want the PS5 as much as they want the PS4.  The reality is that they don't.

PS4 got a port of SF4 at its launch which is around four years before Switch even launched hardly a good example, Soul Hackers may not at the moment be on the platform but a bigger series in mainline Persona is signalling things going forward. You forget that the Switch was a platform many wrote off, the reason you're seeing it get the library it has is because developers are having a harder time ignoring it due to the success and the same will go for the successor we aren't in the era of developers going by their own preferences anymore look at Falcom for one they don't want to do games for any Nintendo platform but business forces it.

Tekken is big enough to maybe skip the platform but games like Tales will have a harder time doing so if anything it will be one of two things where the next game is on the successor or it gets a ground up game of its own much like what happened on the Wii with graces. 

No my numbers don't assume that since I think it's likely to fall behind the PS4 by a notable amount but not by about 50%. If you think a decline that big is possible in Japan + RoW could you post a yearly sales breakdown? I wonder what you expect yearly sales in those regions combined in 2023-2029 to be for them to not exceed 10m in that period.

But Switch hasn’t gotten one yet outside of the Vesperia remaster. I thought there was a supposed to be one planned (unless they were just talking about the Vesperia remaster), but I doubt it’s happening at this point.

Anyway, I’m still a bit skeptical. As I mentioned before, there are some missed opportunities on Switch and I don’t know if those would be made up when the successor arrives. Unless I see support ready for the Switch successor of some of the games I’ve mentioned within a year or two of it’s life, I’m just not holding my breath. Like for SFVI, for example, it’s not held back by Sony’s exclusivity anymore, but I don’t know if Capcom would care to port it to the Switch successor say in 2024 due to the competitive scene being established for that game by that point (unless they release the inevitable Champion Edition by then).

Your numbers assume that people in Japan and RoW want the PS5 as much as they want the PS4.  The reality is that they don't.

Those numbers assume that PS5 isn't just going to fall of a cliff in terms of demand in 2023 when its actual system sellers arrive & in future years when it has price cuts/hardware revisions. If its alredy sold 5m in 18months supply constrained, full price and with barely any next gen exclusives exclusives, Its hard to imagine selling less than 15m over 7 years.

Up until now, 95% of games have been cross gen. Were seeing the end of that with Resident Evil 4 remake, Avatar, Gotham knights, Forspoken, Final Fantasy XVI, Spiderman 2, suicide Squad, Final Fantasy, knights of the old Republic, VII Rebirth and they'll be much more.  But we think sales are going to nose dive? 

I feel like people are more projecting their feelings on the PS5 versus just making reasonable projections of its performance thus far. Anyway, if that's your projection we'll wait and see.

He has a bet with curl that ps5 and xbox series would sell less than 56 million by the end of 2023. Currently both are at 36 million combined and will be well over 50 million by the end of 2022!