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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 27, 2022 (Jun 27 - Jul 03)

It's obvious at this point that a significant portion of PS5s "sold" in Japan are not actually in Japanese homes, hence the awful software sales.
This is a result of the global supply situation; if PS5 was available in sufficient numbers both in Japan and globally, it wouldn't be getting scalped and exported like this.

I'm not saying PS5 is going to do amazingly in Japan or pose any real opposition to the Switch's dominance, but taking the current numbers as a measurement of how its going to do long term just isn't realistic. The current circumstances are highly unusual and impermanent.
The chip crisis will eventually alleviate, and Japanese third parties are not going to abandon Playstation because the big ones still sell well on it due to overseas sales shoring up declining local sales.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

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I agree PS5 will keep flopping in Japan

Will get all the games regardless. There is no reason to not port their games to PS5. Bigger userbase = More sales. With Switch being the lower factor in mind upgrading it to every other platform is going to be easy

And the big-budget games will still get released on PS5 because PS5 is smashing outside Japan, so Capcom and Square have nothing to lose by making their AAA games to skip Switch and focus on Playstation/Xbox/PC crowd, for Switch they will release smaller budget games until Nintendo decides to release a more powerful console

This will prevent PS5 from complete irrelevance, there will always be a small market for Playstation (5-6 million at least)



The seems to be a misunderstanding on the Japanese region here AAA titles have not been a key factor since the Wii, only Monster Hunter and DQ are really of any significance among them and those didn't halt the decline of the PS brand and mind you this was with one half of the PS4's life being against dead competition in the WiiU.

Getting AAA titles is not the problem appealing to the region is and so few of the AAA titles do so even FF has dropped off. This is before the issue of the elephant in the room, the Switch's successor, it will more than likely be capable of handling such titles anyway while getting titles that do appeal to the region this is the long term issue being ignored. 



Otter said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

My argument is about competition.  The PS2 wasn't competing with the Switch, so it didn't need games that sold like Switch games.  It was a different era with different sales levels.  The PS2 was competing with Gamecube, XBox, and Dreamcast.  None of those consoles had software sales like the PS2 games you listed.  They couldn't compete.  That is why they sold poorly.  

For the same reason the PS5 will continue to sell poorly.  It can't compete with the Switch.

But does the PS5 need to compete at the Switch's level in order to sell 8-10m? I don't think so. It'll have a a strong selection of games that will not come to the Switch as listed. Ultimately they're fulfilling different interests. Will the Switch eat into Playstations audience? Probably, but not by an amount which stops PS5 from succeeding. 

You are asking the wrong question.  The right question is "what will people looking for a home console buy"?  In the previous generation the options were PS4 or Wii U.  Given those options about 9-10m bought a PS4.  Today the options are PS5 or Switch.  Those same 9-10m people are not going to show up for the PS5.  A good chunk of them are going to just have a Switch only and be done.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Otter said:

But does the PS5 need to compete at the Switch's level in order to sell 8-10m? I don't think so. It'll have a a strong selection of games that will not come to the Switch as listed. Ultimately they're fulfilling different interests. Will the Switch eat into Playstations audience? Probably, but not by an amount which stops PS5 from succeeding. 

You are asking the wrong question.  The right question is "what will people looking for a home console buy"?  In the previous generation the options were PS4 or Wii U.  Given those options about 9-10m bought a PS4.  Today the options are PS5 or Switch.  Those same 9-10m people are not going to show up for the PS5.  A good chunk of them are going to just have a Switch only and be done.

People didn't skip the Switch just because they apready had a PS4. The narrative that people only buy one console doesn't exist in other markets, not sure why it will exist in Japan when the Switch still fundamentally lacks the majority of PlayStation software. Famitsu's most demanded game is a PS5 exclusive. Everywhere else we see the Switch sell alongside PS5/Series X. Especially with the 4 year gap between them, it doesn't have to be either or... People who bought a switch 4 years ago, can be partial to buying a PS5 today.

We also have to acknowledge that the Switch is appealing to an expanded audience too. I dare say the majority of the audience were never going to buy a playstation in the first place.

No one disagrees with the notion that Switch will eat into playstations audience, the point is that

1. Playstation will still have major support from 3rd parties that the Switch will not.

2. This will secure playstation 5 a decent future which will realise itself once stocks allow. 

Honestly more meaningful then the back and forth would be for people to just give their predictions for Playststion 5 hardware. I say 8-10m, what do you say?



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IcaroRibeiro said:

I agree PS5 will keep flopping in Japan

Will get all the games regardless. There is no reason to not port their games to PS5. Bigger userbase = More sales. With Switch being the lower factor in mind upgrading it to every other platform is going to be easy

And the big-budget games will still get released on PS5 because PS5 is smashing outside Japan, so Capcom and Square have nothing to lose by making their AAA games to skip Switch and focus on Playstation/Xbox/PC crowd, for Switch they will release smaller budget games until Nintendo decides to release a more powerful console

This will prevent PS5 from complete irrelevance, there will always be a small market for Playstation (5-6 million at least)

My only concern regarding the Switch successor is that even if it has all the features core fans want out of it (i.e., more power, better online, etc.), I don’t see how third party companies will all of a sudden bring those AAA games to the successor. Like will we see FFXVI or FFVIIRebirth on a Switch successor that can run those titles? I doubt it personally. Same with Street Fighter VI or Resident Evil 9 or 4 Remake.

Even with all the good will Switch has and the hardware and software sales being extraordinary, I have some doubt that third party companies will invest in AAA games on the Switch successor, that has all the hardware features we hope for, on the regular.

I have some doubt because the Switch doesn’t even have games King of Fighters XV or Soul Calibur VI (games I think can run on Switch), but then somehow has Persona 5 Royal and Nier Automata coming soon (games people believe were gonna run like crap on Switch).



Kai_Mao said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

I agree PS5 will keep flopping in Japan

Will get all the games regardless. There is no reason to not port their games to PS5. Bigger userbase = More sales. With Switch being the lower factor in mind upgrading it to every other platform is going to be easy

And the big-budget games will still get released on PS5 because PS5 is smashing outside Japan, so Capcom and Square have nothing to lose by making their AAA games to skip Switch and focus on Playstation/Xbox/PC crowd, for Switch they will release smaller budget games until Nintendo decides to release a more powerful console

This will prevent PS5 from complete irrelevance, there will always be a small market for Playstation (5-6 million at least)

My only concern regarding the Switch successor is that even if it has all the features core fans want out of it (i.e., more power, better online, etc.), I don’t see how third party companies will all of a sudden bring those AAA games to the successor. Like will we see FFXVI or FFVIIRebirth on a Switch successor that can run those titles? I doubt it personally. Same with Street Fighter VI or Resident Evil 9 or 4 Remake.

Even with all the good will Switch has and the hardware and software sales being extraordinary, I have some doubt that third party companies will invest in AAA games on the Switch successor, that has all the hardware features we hope for, on the regular.

I have some doubt because the Switch doesn’t even have games King of Fighters XV or Soul Calibur VI (games I think can run on Switch), but then somehow has Persona 5 Royal and Nier Automata coming soon (games people believe were gonna run like crap on Switch).

people thought P5R was going to run crap on switch when its basically a DLC version of base P5? really? when P5 ran on and was made for the PS3?



Kai_Mao said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

I agree PS5 will keep flopping in Japan

Will get all the games regardless. There is no reason to not port their games to PS5. Bigger userbase = More sales. With Switch being the lower factor in mind upgrading it to every other platform is going to be easy

And the big-budget games will still get released on PS5 because PS5 is smashing outside Japan, so Capcom and Square have nothing to lose by making their AAA games to skip Switch and focus on Playstation/Xbox/PC crowd, for Switch they will release smaller budget games until Nintendo decides to release a more powerful console

This will prevent PS5 from complete irrelevance, there will always be a small market for Playstation (5-6 million at least)

My only concern regarding the Switch successor is that even if it has all the features core fans want out of it (i.e., more power, better online, etc.), I don’t see how third party companies will all of a sudden bring those AAA games to the successor. Like will we see FFXVI or FFVIIRebirth on a Switch successor that can run those titles? I doubt it personally. Same with Street Fighter VI or Resident Evil 9 or 4 Remake.

Even with all the good will Switch has and the hardware and software sales being extraordinary, I have some doubt that third party companies will invest in AAA games on the Switch successor, that has all the hardware features we hope for, on the regular.

I have some doubt because the Switch doesn’t even have games King of Fighters XV or Soul Calibur VI (games I think can run on Switch), but then somehow has Persona 5 Royal and Nier Automata coming soon (games people believe were gonna run like crap on Switch).

The Switch itself already debunks this argument as the library is full of games that many claimed would not be on it years ago even if it did find success, this is because the momentum is too high for developers to ignore and development costs are constantly increasing.

It will be easier to port to the Switch successor than it is to the Switch, FF is a poor example as its not even on the Xbox signalling a possible deal being in place. SFVI, RE however are likely going to find their way on the platform all the Remakes will be on the platform for sure.



Otter said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

You are asking the wrong question.  The right question is "what will people looking for a home console buy"?  In the previous generation the options were PS4 or Wii U.  Given those options about 9-10m bought a PS4.  Today the options are PS5 or Switch.  Those same 9-10m people are not going to show up for the PS5.  A good chunk of them are going to just have a Switch only and be done.

People didn't skip the Switch just because they apready had a PS4. The narrative that people only buy one console doesn't exist in other markets, not sure why it will exist in Japan when the Switch still fundamentally lacks the majority of PlayStation software. Famitsu's most demanded game is a PS5 exclusive. Everywhere else we see the Switch sell alongside PS5/Series X. Especially with the 4 year gap between them, it doesn't have to be either or... People who bought a switch 4 years ago, can be partial to buying a PS5 today.

We also have to acknowledge that the Switch is appealing to an expanded audience too. I dare say the majority of the audience were never going to buy a playstation in the first place.

No one disagrees with the notion that Switch will eat into playstations audience, the point is that

1. Playstation will still have major support from 3rd parties that the Switch will not.

2. This will secure playstation 5 a decent future which will realise itself once stocks allow. 

Honestly more meaningful then the back and forth would be for people to just give their predictions for Playststion 5 hardware. I say 8-10m, what do you say?

7mil



Otter said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

You are asking the wrong question.  The right question is "what will people looking for a home console buy"?  In the previous generation the options were PS4 or Wii U.  Given those options about 9-10m bought a PS4.  Today the options are PS5 or Switch.  Those same 9-10m people are not going to show up for the PS5.  A good chunk of them are going to just have a Switch only and be done.

People didn't skip the Switch just because they apready had a PS4. The narrative that people only buy one console doesn't exist in other markets, not sure why it will exist in Japan when the Switch still fundamentally lacks the majority of PlayStation software. Famitsu's most demanded game is a PS5 exclusive. Everywhere else we see the Switch sell alongside PS5/Series X. Especially with the 4 year gap between them, it doesn't have to be either or... People who bought a switch 4 years ago, can be partial to buying a PS5 today.

We also have to acknowledge that the Switch is appealing to an expanded audience too. I dare say the majority of the audience were never going to buy a playstation in the first place.

No one disagrees with the notion that Switch will eat into playstations audience, the point is that

1. Playstation will still have major support from 3rd parties that the Switch will not.

2. This will secure playstation 5 a decent future which will realise itself once stocks allow. 

Honestly more meaningful then the back and forth would be for people to just give their predictions for Playststion 5 hardware. I say 8-10m, what do you say?

VGChartz has Japan + RoW totals for PS4 at around 33m.  I think this total for PS5 will be under 17m.  I don't know the exact split between Japan and RoW, because of scalping, but I do know that PS5 sales in Japan translate to lost PS5 sales in RoW.  I think 50% of PS4 sales in Japan + RoW is the best the PS5 can do.